201 Adele St · Lilly, PA 15938

$74,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily · 154 Days on market

Built 1904 7,492 sqft lot Est $144k · 48% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 full bathroom home located in the Borough of Lilly. This two-story home features spacious rooms with main floor laundry and bath. Supplement heat provided by pellet stove and A/C units for cooling. Enclosed rear porch features additional living space and storage. Partially fenced yard with large detached garage and workshop. Pleasant hillside neighborhood located near library and recreational parks.

Key facts

• Main floor laundry
• Enclosed rear porch
• Workshop

Tags

• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• ENCLOSED REAR PORCH
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• WORKSHOP
• HILLSIDE NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Off-street parking; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2 stories; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: 50 x 150 lot; 0.12-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Unfinished walk-out basement; Some electric appliances included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#1,087 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Penn Cambria SD (town): math 29% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #304 of 539 in PA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Penn Cambria Intrmd Sch (math 32% / reading 55%, grade F, #866 of 1,518 statewide, top 57%, 211 students, 52% FRL); Penn Cambria Ms (math 18% / reading 59%, grade F, #275 of 512 statewide, top 55%, 468 students, 50% FRL); Penn Cambria Hs (math 67%, 567 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $674 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.76%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,520
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
136 William St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-5%)	13mo	$165,000	$125	79
133 Jones St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+8%)	9mo	$126,000	$85	66
5250 Portage St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,350 (-2%)	13mo	$130,000	$96	65
917 Main St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,428 (+4%)	19mo	$43,000	$30	53
637 White St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,440 (+4%)	16mo	$150,000	$104	46
617 George St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-13%)	18mo	$155,000	$129	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $22,281
• Equity at exit: $18,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $61,441
• Equity at exit: $19,673

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15938

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,218 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,266/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $670

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $475	-5% $454	+0% $433	+5% $411	+10% $390
Rent	-10% $336	-5% $385	+0% $433	+5% $481	+10% $529
Rate	-1.0pp $470	-0.5pp $452	base $433	+0.5pp $413	+1.0pp $394

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statuslisting id $74,900 Pending 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,900 Contingent 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Contingent 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Contingent 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,900 Contingent 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $74,900 Contingent 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $74,900 Contingent 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $74,900 Contingent 145 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $74,900 Contingent 144 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,900 Contingent 143 DOM
11. 2026-04-24
    historical Active Under Contract 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 full bathroom home located in the Borough of Lilly. This two-story home features spacious rooms with main floor laundry and bath. Supplement heat provided by pellet stove and A/C units for cooling. Enclosed rear porch features additional living space and storage. Partially fenced yard with large detached garage and workshop. Pleasant hillside neighborhood located near library and recreational parks.

12. 2026-04-24
    historical Contingent

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 full bathroom home located in the Borough of Lilly. This two-story home features spacious rooms with main floor laundry and bath. Supplement heat provided by pellet stove and A/C units for cooling. Enclosed rear porch features additional living space and storage. Partially fenced yard with large detached garage and workshop. Pleasant hillside neighborhood located near library and recreational parks.

13. 2026-03-29
    price $74,900

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 full bathroom home located in the Borough of Lilly. This two-story home features spacious rooms with main floor laundry and bath. Supplement heat provided by pellet stove and A/C units for cooling. Enclosed rear porch features additional living space and storage. Partially fenced yard with large detached garage and workshop. Pleasant hillside neighborhood located near library and recreational parks.

14. 2026-03-29
    price $74,900 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 full bathroom home located in the Borough of Lilly. This two-story home features spacious rooms with main floor laundry and bath. Supplement heat provided by pellet stove and A/C units for cooling. Enclosed rear porch features additional living space and storage. Partially fenced yard with large detached garage and workshop. Pleasant hillside neighborhood located near library and recreational parks.

15. 2026-01-07
    listed $79,900 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 full bathroom home located in the Borough of Lilly. This two-story home features spacious rooms with main floor laundry and bath. Supplement heat provided by pellet stove and A/C units for cooling. Enclosed rear porch features additional living space and storage. Partially fenced yard with large detached garage and workshop. Pleasant hillside neighborhood located near library and recreational parks.

16. 2026-01-07
    listed $79,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 full bathroom home located in the Borough of Lilly. This two-story home features spacious rooms with main floor laundry and bath. Supplement heat provided by pellet stove and A/C units for cooling. Enclosed rear porch features additional living space and storage. Partially fenced yard with large detached garage and workshop. Pleasant hillside neighborhood located near library and recreational parks.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,266 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,266 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,266
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,169
• − Management: −$1,169
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $4,262
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,023
• After-tax cash flow: $4,169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penn Cambria SD
• NCES district ID: 4213770
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $45,952
• Composite: 36.48/100
• National rank: #4657
• State rank: #304 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lilly

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #1087
• US rank: #12305

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lilly, PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,307

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 22% Lithuanian 2% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.90%
• Current HPI: 101.513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Contingent — CSMLS
• 2026-04-24 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $74,900 West Penn MLS
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $74,900 CSMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $79,900 West Penn MLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $79,900 CSMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,266 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.