1013 Poplar Grove St · Baltimore, MD 21216

$130,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,968 sqft · Townhouse public records · 165 Days on market

Built 1920 5,227 sqft lot Est $199k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bank owned property that is a GREAT investment! Make the appointment today to see how you can turn this property into a great home or hold as a rental. Call office for an appointment!

Key facts

• Big yard
• Unfinished basement
• Deck

Tags

• BIG YARD
• DECK
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $774 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,031/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $130k implies a 815% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.51%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,768
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2738 W Mosher St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,765 (-10%)	1mo	$37,000	$21	72
2732 Riggs Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,730 (-12%)	2mo	$135,000	$78	68
854 Whitmore Ave	0.39mi	4/3.5	1,920 (-2%)	4mo	$245,000	$128	65
900 N Franklintown Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (-10%)	3mo	$80,000	$45	62
3304 Brighton St	0.54mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,908 (-3%)	2mo	$155,000	$81	61
3011 W Lanvale St	0.24mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,740 (-12%)	4mo	$150,000	$86	60
635 N Rosedale St	0.36mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,867 (-5%)	3mo	$230,000	$123	57
2318 W Lanvale St	0.60mi	4/2.5	1,884 (-4%)	2mo	$180,000	$96	57
3118 Normount Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (-12%)	1mo	$174,990	$101	55
2406 Arunah Ave	0.59mi	4/3.5	1,824 (-7%)	2mo	$350,000	$192	49
3410 W Franklin St	0.72mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,040 (+4%)	2mo	$213,580	$105	46
743 Linnard St	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,693 (-14%)	1mo	$199,000	$118	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $34,743
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $122,239
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21216

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,031 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,137/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $774

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,051

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2806 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1412	$1,900	$1.35	3d	1	0.07mi
2744 W Mosher St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1412	$2,100	$1.49	23d	1	0.11mi
2728 Winchester St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$1,800	$1.43	3d	1	0.17mi
1402 Poplar Grove St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1540	$800	$0.52	43d	1	0.26mi
715 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	5.0	3.0	1542	$2,550	$1.65	43d	1	0.31mi
3238 Westmont Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1280	$1,600	$1.25	43d	1	0.34mi
2800 Presstman St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,799	$1.23	23d	1	0.34mi
2922 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,900	$1.17	43d	1	0.37mi
1530 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,895	$1.15	14d	1	0.44mi
1513 N Ellamont St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	23d	1	0.44mi
2636 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1232	$1,900	$1.54	43d	1	0.48mi
2609 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,675	$1.30	23d	1	0.52mi
798 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,295	$1.69	23d	1	0.58mi
1633 N Hilton St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1920	$2,600	$1.35	17d	1	0.59mi
918 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1485	$1,750	$1.18	43d	1	0.61mi
3324 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	2300	$1,995	$0.87	21d	1	0.61mi
2303 Calverton Heights Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1314	$2,250	$1.71	23d	1	0.62mi
730 Linnard St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1360	$1,750	$1.29	23d	1	0.65mi
3507 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1428	$2,300	$1.61	43d	1	0.73mi
623 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	23d	1	0.73mi
2917 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	4.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	23d	1	0.77mi
405 N Edgewood St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1408	$2,950	$2.10	4d	1	0.77mi
3700 Woodridge Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1955	$1,950	$1.00	43d	1	0.77mi
2405 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1826	$1,900	$1.04	4d	1	0.79mi
2401 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	5.0	2.0	2037	$1,800	$0.88	4d	1	0.80mi
2812 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,850	$1.12	43d	1	0.80mi
3619 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	1962	$2,800	$1.43	43d	1	0.81mi
3712 Gelston Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	23d	1	0.82mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	23d	1	0.85mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	10d	1	0.85mi
3030 Windsor Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	2124	$1,995	$0.94	4d	1	0.88mi
202 N Edgewood St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,250	$1.32	23d	1	0.89mi
1501 N Payson St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,550	$1.11	43d	1	0.91mi
2012 W Saratoga St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	23d	1	1.00mi
39 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1844	$1,700	$0.92	2d	1	1.01mi
4020 Gelston Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,875	$1.48	43d	1	1.02mi
2204 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,450	$1.04	4d	1	1.03mi
409 Normandy Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1640	$1,500	$0.91	23d	1	1.03mi
3336 W Caton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,625	$1.31	23d	1	1.05mi
4113 Mountwood Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1520	$1,795	$1.18	43d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-20
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-08
   listed $130,000 Active
3. 2005-01-31
   soldstatus $14,200 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   Bank owned property that is a GREAT investment! Make the appointment today to see how you can turn this property into a great home or hold as a rental. Call office for an appointment!

4. 2004-12-06
   historical 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   Bank owned property that is a GREAT investment! Make the appointment today to see how you can turn this property into a great home or hold as a rental. Call office for an appointment!

5. 2004-11-29
   listed $14,800 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   Bank owned property that is a GREAT investment! Make the appointment today to see how you can turn this property into a great home or hold as a rental. Call office for an appointment!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,137 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,277 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$140/yr (+$12/mo · 12.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,137
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,950
• − Management: −$1,950
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $7,622
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,829
• After-tax cash flow: $7,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 29,426
• Household income: $42,031
• Rent vs Own: 49.8% rent · 50.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2264.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% White 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.42%
• Current HPI: 164.3933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+778.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-08 Listed $130,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-01-31 Sold (MLS) $14,200 MRIS
• 2004-12-06 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-11-29 Listed $14,800 MRIS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,137 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.