771 S Frost Dr · Shields, MI 48638

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,195 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1959 0.49 ac lot Est $133k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 3 bedroom ranch style home in Saginaw Township. This home is in a peaceful spot with a large half acre lot on a dead end street. The roof was replaced in 2013, electrical updated in the past 3 years and updates to the plumbing this year. There is an energy efficient furnace and R30 insulation in the attic. In addition there are beautiful hardwood floors and an updated kitchen. It is freshly painted with some newer windows. This home truly is ready for you to move right in.

Key facts

• Updated bath
• New carpet
• Dead end street

Tags

• HALF ACRE LOT
• DEAD END STREET
• UPDATED BATH
• NEW CARPET
• OAK FLOORS
• FINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Green features include appliances and water heater; Lot acreage about 0.49 acres; Frontage approximately 76 feet

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with approximately 2.5 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas heating fuel; Gas water heater; Public power
• Home design: Residential single-story home; Built in 1959; Basement present (block foundation); Property faces road frontage
• Construction: Block foundation; Aluminum siding; Year built: 1959
• Exterior features: Aluminum exterior; Deck; Fenced yard; Shed on the property; Street lights nearby; Property on a dead-end street within a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Ceramic kitchen floor; Kitchen dimensions about 12 x 10; Includes dishwasher, microwave, range/oven, and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary and other bedrooms on the first floor; Bedroom sizes include 13 x 10, 10 x 10, and approximately 9 wide; Bedrooms finished with carpet
• Flooring: Wood flooring in living room and bathroom areas; Carpet in bedrooms; Ceramic tile in kitchen
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor; Bathroom floor finished in wood
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable/Internet available; Hardwood floors; Finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($826/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.8% in Shields — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#59 in MI, #1,310 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Saginaw Township Community Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #265 of 540 in MI (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Arrowwood Elementary School (math 20% / reading 29%, grade F, #980 of 1,397 statewide, top 74%, 437 students, 67% FRL); White Pine Middle School (math 24% / reading 47%, grade F, #278 of 493 statewide, top 57%, 940 students, 58% FRL); Heritage High School (math 33% / reading 58%, grade D-, #210 of 713 statewide, top 29%, 1,396 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 36% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $150k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $125,000 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.97%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $132,645
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
590 S Frost Dr	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,311 (+10%)	8mo	$121,900	$93	74
100 S Frost Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,290 (+8%)	15mo	$45,000	$35	64
16 Valentine Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	14mo	$206,000	$153	43
7 Valentine Ct	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,044 (-13%)	23mo	$145,000	$139	39
1220 S Center Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,077 (-10%)	18mo	$120,000	$111	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-19,962
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-11,956
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48638

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $842/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,163

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $111	+0% $69	+5% $26	+10% $-16
Rent	-10% $-30	-5% $19	+0% $69	+5% $118	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $107	base $69	+0.5pp $30	+1.0pp $-10

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6249 Amanda Dr Saginaw, MI	2.0	1.0	858	$1,250	$1.46	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $149,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on marketlisting id $149,900 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 322-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $842 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,575 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$733/yr (+$61/mo · 87.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$842
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$420
• After-tax cash flow: $1,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw Township Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2630450
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,971
• Composite: 31.01/100
• National rank: #6094
• State rank: #265 of 540 in MI

Livability — Shields

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #1310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,668

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.44%
• Current HPI: 164.3443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+87.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $74,500 Public Records
• 2015-06-17 Sold (MLS) $74,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-06-17 Sold (MLS) $74,500 REALCOMP
• 2015-06-05 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-05-14 Listed $74,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-05-14 Listed $74,500 REALCOMP
• 2009-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2009-06-29 Sold (MLS) $70,000 REALCOMP
• 2009-06-29 Sold (MLS) $70,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-06-04 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2009-06-04 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-06-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-04-15 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2009-04-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-10-15 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-10-15 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $842 · -52.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.