811 Walton Ave Unit B18 · New York, NY 10451

$220,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Condo · 151 Days on market

Built 1927 $1010/mo HOA · 32% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quiet spot/dynamic neighborhood, classic building/modern apartment one stop to Manhattan! This renovated unit uses every inch w/a home office, S/S EIK, glass & marble bath, two large closets. Steps to Borough Hall, Bronx courts, Yankee Stadium, sports-filled Macombs Dam Park, more parks, Bronx Terminal Mkt mall. Digital & human security, laundry rm, yoga studio, gym, bike & storage rms, live-in Super. Walk to B,D,4 Trains & Bx6. Pets welcome. Rent after 5yrs, dogs welcome. Ask re flip tax.

Key facts

• Bonus custom office
• Eat in kitchen
• Sizable living room

Tags

• RENOVATED ONE BEDROOM
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BONUS CUSTOM OFFICE
• SIZABLE LIVING ROOM
• NEW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building offers bike storage, elevator(s), and storage; Total of 138 units in the building
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $1,010; Pets allowed in building

Exterior

• Home design: 6-story building; Entry on level 2; Building name: 811 Walton Ave Owne
• Exterior features: Building courtyard; North and west exposures; Zoned R8

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Total of 3 rooms; Basement: Other
• Laundry & utility: No building laundry (none)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-294/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (1.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 69 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,172/mo this rent would consume 98% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 6917% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent; built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.67% appreciation · 2.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,704
• Equity at exit: $71,316

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $30,656
• Equity at exit: $91,908

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10451

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,172 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$1,010
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$666
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,203

Max offer price $216,460

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2413 3rd Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	857	$2,900	$3.38	12d	23	1.24mi
132 W 134th St New York, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$4,500	$6.00	24d	1	1.27mi
5 Lincoln Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1011	$2,856	$2.82	2d	183	1.32mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,010 · $12,120/yr
• Likely covers: gymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $220,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $220,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $220,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $220,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-01-08
   listed $220,000 Active
7. 2019-01-26
   historical
8. 2018-11-28
   listed $250,000 Active
9. 2014-02-10
   soldstatus $149,999 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   Quiet spot/dynamic neighborhood, classic building/modern apartment one stop to Manhattan! This renovated unit uses every inch w/a home office, S/S EIK, glass & marble bath, two large closets. Steps to Borough Hall, Bronx courts, Yankee Stadium, sports-filled Macombs Dam Park, more parks, Bronx Terminal Mkt mall. Digital & human security, laundry rm, yoga studio, gym, bike & storage rms, live-in Super. Walk to B,D,4 Trains & Bx6. Pets welcome. Rent after 5yrs, dogs welcome. Ask re flip tax.

10. 2014-02-10
    soldstatus $149,999 Sold

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Quiet spot/dynamic neighborhood, classic building/modern apartment one stop to Manhattan! This renovated unit uses every inch w/a home office, S/S EIK, glass & marble bath, two large closets. Steps to Borough Hall, Bronx courts, Yankee Stadium, sports-filled Macombs Dam Park, more parks, Bronx Terminal Mkt mall. Digital & human security, laundry rm, yoga studio, gym, bike & storage rms, live-in Super. Walk to B,D,4 Trains & Bx6. Pets welcome. Rent after 5yrs, dogs welcome. Ask re flip tax.

11. 2013-09-29
    historical
12. 2013-07-14
    historical Pending
13. 2013-05-24
    listed $149,999 Active
14. 2013-05-23
    listed $149,999 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Quiet spot/dynamic neighborhood, classic building/modern apartment one stop to Manhattan! This renovated unit uses every inch w/a home office, S/S EIK, glass & marble bath, two large closets. Steps to Borough Hall, Bronx courts, Yankee Stadium, sports-filled Macombs Dam Park, more parks, Bronx Terminal Mkt mall. Digital & human security, laundry rm, yoga studio, gym, bike & storage rms, live-in Super. Walk to B,D,4 Trains & Bx6. Pets welcome. Rent after 5yrs, dogs welcome. Ask re flip tax.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,045
• − Management: −$3,045
• − HOA: −$12,120
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,269
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$785
• After-tax cash flow: $491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 50,942
• Household income: $38,770
• Rent vs Own: 86.4% rent · 13.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 6917.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% Black 40% Two or more races 12% White 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 24%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, United Kingdom, China
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 42% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Current HPI: 102.1498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.57%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+46.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Listed $220,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2019-01-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-28 Listed $250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-10 Sold (MLS) $149,999 HGMLS
• 2014-02-10 Sold (MLS) $149,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-29 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2013-07-14 Contingent — HGMLS
• 2013-05-24 Listed $149,999 HGMLS
• 2013-05-23 Listed $149,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid