14506 Broadbury Pond Rd · Fresno, TX 77583

$234,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,285 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 7,126 sqft lot $183/sqft · 11% below area Est $264k · 11% under $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 14506 Broadbury, a charming Single-Family property with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. This almost new home, built in 2021, has 1285 square feet of living space on a spacious corner lot size of 7126 square feet. Contact me for more information on this lovely property!

Key facts

• 7,126 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $214k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.4% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1139 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,759 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.76%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,044
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: -11.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14506 Broadbury Pond Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,285 (0%)	0mo	$234,900	$183	100
14518 Broadbury Pond Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,180 (-8%)	3mo	$224,900	$191	77
946 Luke Darrell Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,337 (+4%)	3mo	$244,000	$182	74
5122 Hector Gustavo Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,331 (+4%)	3mo	$244,000	$183	72
5127 Shelby Katherine Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,331 (+4%)	2mo	$244,000	$183	71
5002 Hurston Park Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,311 (+2%)	13mo	$262,000	$200	69
5114 Hector Gustavo Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,331 (+4%)	8mo	$249,990	$188	69
5107 Shelby Katherine Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,331 (+4%)	12mo	$259,990	$195	66
4523 Rose Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,293 (+1%)	3mo	$259,000	$200	63
5130 Shelby Katherine Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,331 (+4%)	13mo	$259,990	$195	62
5050 Hurston Park Trl	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (+13%)	8mo	$304,000	$210	59
5603 Briana Dee Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (+7%)	9mo	$250,000	$182	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-21,417
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-15,301
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1139
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,842 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$470 /mo · $5,639/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,373

Max offer price $234,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5522 Briana Dee Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,100	$1.53	43d	1	0.54mi
919 Yorkshire Holw Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,100	$1.39	43d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   Welcome to 14506 Broadbury, a charming Single-Family property with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. This almost new home, built in 2021, has 1285 square feet of living space on a spacious corner lot size of 7126 square feet. Contact me for more information on this lovely property!

2. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   Welcome to 14506 Broadbury, a charming Single-Family property with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. This almost new home, built in 2021, has 1285 square feet of living space on a spacious corner lot size of 7126 square feet. Contact me for more information on this lovely property!

3. 2026-04-21
   price $234,900 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   Welcome to 14506 Broadbury, a charming Single-Family property with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. This almost new home, built in 2021, has 1285 square feet of living space on a spacious corner lot size of 7126 square feet. Contact me for more information on this lovely property!

4. 2026-03-10
   price $245,000 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   Welcome to 14506 Broadbury, a charming Single-Family property with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. This almost new home, built in 2021, has 1285 square feet of living space on a spacious corner lot size of 7126 square feet. Contact me for more information on this lovely property!

5. 2026-01-29
   listed $249,900 Active 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   Welcome to 14506 Broadbury, a charming Single-Family property with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. This almost new home, built in 2021, has 1285 square feet of living space on a spacious corner lot size of 7126 square feet. Contact me for more information on this lovely property!

6. 2024-01-10
   historical $2,029
7. 2023-09-29
   listed $2,029

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,639 · $470/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,639 · $470/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$5,639
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,728
• − Management: −$2,728
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable income: $940
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$226
• After-tax cash flow: $4,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This nearly new single-family home in Fresno, TX, offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's move-in ready with potential for value-adding improvements to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Aesthetic improvements can increase both resale and rental value
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Aesthetic improvements can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11477.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2024-01-10 Rental Removed $2,029 HARMLS
• 2023-09-29 Listed for Rent $2,029 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,639 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.