568 Jennifer · K-Bar Ranch, TX 78372

$132,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 364 Days on market

Built 1998 1.66 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious double-wide 3-bedroom 2 bath manufacture home is located few minutes outside of Orange Gove, Texas. This home sits on large yard approximately 1.6 acres. Also, boasts a big storage shed. With a little TLC this could become a great permanent residents or great income producing property

Key facts

• Big storage shed
• Large yard
• 1.66 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• BIG STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $132k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $132k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Orange Grove ISD (rural): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #196 of 826 in TX (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Jim Wells County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($913 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Jim Wells County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.90%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.34% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $18,194
• Equity at exit: $47,414

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $60,710
• Equity at exit: $64,870

Cash invested: $36,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78372

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,321 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$692
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $1,001/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,051

Max offer price $132,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,000
• Closing costs: $3,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $132,000 Active 364 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $132,000 Active 363 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $132,000 Active 362 DOM
4. 2025-08-12
   price $132,000 299-char remark

   Show marketing remark (299 chars)

   This spacious double-wide 3-bedroom 2 bath manufacture home is located few minutes outside of Orange Gove, Texas. This home sits on large yard approximately 1.6 acres. Also, boasts a big storage shed. With a little TLC this could become a great permanent residents or great income producing property

5. 2025-06-03
   listed $142,500 Active 299-char remark

   Show marketing remark (299 chars)

   This spacious double-wide 3-bedroom 2 bath manufacture home is located few minutes outside of Orange Gove, Texas. This home sits on large yard approximately 1.6 acres. Also, boasts a big storage shed. With a little TLC this could become a great permanent residents or great income producing property

6. 2017-07-31
   historical 403-char remark

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   Country living yet so close to Orange Grove! In this quite neighborhood you will find this cute double-wide mobile home with wonderful, breezy oak trees in the front yard. The back yard is clear and ready for fun. The home has a open living space with large kitchen and breakfast bar. large utility room and large bedrooms, great for a big family. Be sure and take a look at this and is priced to sell.

7. 2017-07-17
   soldstatus Closed 403-char remark

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   Country living yet so close to Orange Grove! In this quite neighborhood you will find this cute double-wide mobile home with wonderful, breezy oak trees in the front yard. The back yard is clear and ready for fun. The home has a open living space with large kitchen and breakfast bar. large utility room and large bedrooms, great for a big family. Be sure and take a look at this and is priced to sell.

8. 2017-06-20
   status Pending 403-char remark

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   Country living yet so close to Orange Grove! In this quite neighborhood you will find this cute double-wide mobile home with wonderful, breezy oak trees in the front yard. The back yard is clear and ready for fun. The home has a open living space with large kitchen and breakfast bar. large utility room and large bedrooms, great for a big family. Be sure and take a look at this and is priced to sell.

9. 2017-05-22
   listed $79,000 Active 403-char remark

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   Country living yet so close to Orange Grove! In this quite neighborhood you will find this cute double-wide mobile home with wonderful, breezy oak trees in the front yard. The back yard is clear and ready for fun. The home has a open living space with large kitchen and breakfast bar. large utility room and large bedrooms, great for a big family. Be sure and take a look at this and is priced to sell.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,001 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,416 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,415/yr (+$118/mo · 141.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,394
• − Property taxes: −$1,001
• − Insurance: −$660
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,268
• − Management: −$1,268
• − Depreciation: −$3,840
• Taxable income: $417
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$100
• After-tax cash flow: $2,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange Grove ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833720
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,348
• Composite: 41.9/100
• National rank: #3367
• State rank: #196 of 826 in TX

Livability — K-Bar Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,066

Population outlook (Jim Wells County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,325 people
• By 2030: 44,156 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 45,790 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 47,455 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 51,800 · +19.6%
• By 2100: 52,006 · +20.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 41% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Arab 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 36% Arabic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Jim Wells

• 2024 margin: R (+15.5) · D 42.0% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -15.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.5 2020: R+9.8 2016: D+10.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.34%
• Current HPI: 126.8482
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+67.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $132,000 CBMLS
• 2025-06-03 Listed $142,500 CBMLS
• 2017-07-31 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2017-07-17 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2017-06-20 Pending — CBMLS
• 2017-05-22 Listed $79,000 CBMLS

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,001 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.