4640 E Hoyos St · San Luis, AZ 85336

$208,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 2024 6,000 sqft lot Est $226k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2024

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($77/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.1% in San Luis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#13 in AZ, #3,388 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D, schools F.
• Yuma Union High School District (4507) (urban): math 14% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #212 of 249 in AZ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,399 units permitted in Yuma County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yuma County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $208k implies a 247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $160,000 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.13%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,252
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5072 E Monreal Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	972 (-2%)	1mo	$220,000	$226	78
4833 E Nadine St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,049 (+6%)	3mo	$235,000	$224	74
5055 E Udall Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	972 (-2%)	4mo	$224,000	$230	74
4961 E Monreal Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	972 (-2%)	2mo	$220,450	$227	74
5027 E San Pedro St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,112 (+13%)	1mo	$255,000	$229	62
4831 E Jett St	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	866 (-12%)	3mo	$220,000	$254	58
5127 E Udall Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,112 (+13%)	3mo	$255,000	$229	57
4960 E Monreal Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,112 (+13%)	2mo	$255,000	$229	54
5001 E Monreal Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,112 (+13%)	1mo	$252,000	$227	54
4976 E Monreal Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,112 (+13%)	2mo	$255,000	$229	54
4968 E Monreal Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,112 (+13%)	3mo	$262,000	$236	53
5000 E Monreal Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,112 (+13%)	2mo	$250,000	$225	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-33,383
• Equity at exit: $31,013

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-28,895
• Equity at exit: $17,984

Cash invested: $58,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85336

• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,091
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $962/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,592

Max offer price $208,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $65	+0% $6	+5% $-52	+10% $-111
Rent	-10% $-120	-5% $-57	+0% $6	+5% $70	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $59	base $6	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,000
• Closing costs: $6,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4756 E Jett St Somerton, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	14d	1	0.17mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2024-09-26
   soldstatus $60,000
2. 2024-06-27
   historical
3. 2024-06-26
   listed $208,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $962 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,373 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$411/yr (+$34/mo · 42.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,651
• − Property taxes: −$962
• − Insurance: −$1,040
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$6,051
• Taxable loss: −$3,576
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$858
• After-tax cash flow: $935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yuma Union High School District (4507)
• NCES district ID: 0409630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,512
• Composite: 12.86/100
• National rank: #9592
• State rank: #212 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Luis

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #3388

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Luis, AZ
• City population: 28,810
• Population (ZIP): 7,884

Population outlook (Yuma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 211,633 people
• By 2030: 214,114 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 217,856 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 220,276 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 222,359 · +5.1%
• By 2100: 198,880 · -6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 100% Two or more races 53%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 100%
• Foreign-born: 48% · Canada
• Languages at home: 1% English-only · Spanish 99%

Political lean MEDSL · Yuma

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.3% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+6.2 2016: R+5.5 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.09%
• Current HPI: 104.3929
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-71.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-27 Delisted — YAR
• 2024-06-26 Listed $208,000 YAR

Property tax history

+42086.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $962 · +42086.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.