18 Allandale Dr · North Gates, NY 14624

$269,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,032 sqft · Townhouse public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1968 0.45 ac lot Est $374k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 18 Allandale Dr. Opportunities like this don’t come around often! This rare side-by-side duplex in Ogden, located in the highly sought-after Churchville-Chili School District, offers incredible flexibility for both owner-occupants and investors alike. Built in 1968 and offering 2,032 square feet, this property has been meticulously maintained by the current owner. Unit "A" has just undergone a complete renovation, featuring brand new luxury vinyl plank flooring, stylish white shaker cabinets, butcher block countertops, and all-new stainless-steel appliances—truly move-in ready. Both units offer 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths, providing comfortable and functional l

Key facts

• Side-by-side duplex
• Complete renovation
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SIDE-BY-SIDE DUPLEX
• COMPLETE RENOVATION
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• WHITE SHAKER CABINETS
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-678/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.8% in North Gates — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#245 in NY, #3,859 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Churchville-Chili Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #291 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $270k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $255,969 (5.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $373,888
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Allandale Dr	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,032 (0%)	1mo	$373,000	$184	100
16 Beaman Rd W	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,904 (-6%)	5mo	$310,500	$163	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-47,165
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-45,015
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14624

• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$551 /mo · $6,610/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,631

Max offer price $259,917

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $96	-5% $20	+0% $-57	+5% $-133	+10% $-209
Rent	-10% $-259	-5% $-158	+0% $-57	+5% $45	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $79	-0.5pp $12	base $-57	+0.5pp $-126	+1.0pp $-198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Whittier Rd Rochester, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1112	$2,500	$2.25	3d	23	0.81mi
37 Red Plank Way Rochester, NY	3.0	2.5	1526	$2,500	$1.64	15d	1	1.42mi
29 Ivy Bridge Way Westgate, NY	3.0	2.5	1526	$2,500	$1.64	11d	1	1.42mi
50 Ivy Bridge Way Rochester, NY	3.0	2.5	1526	$2,550	$1.67	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-22
   historical Active Under Contract
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $269,900 Active
3. 2009-11-23
   soldstatus $117,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,610 · $551/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,610 · $551/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$6,610
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,457
• − Management: −$2,457
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$5,128
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,231
• After-tax cash flow: $553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Churchville-Chili Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607530
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $61,997
• Composite: 48.07/100
• National rank: #2191
• State rank: #291 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Gates

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #245
• US rank: #3859

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living A- Crime D Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 27,478
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,626
• Household income: $87,989
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.26%
• Current HPI: 267.356
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+129.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $269,900 UNYREIS
• 2009-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $117,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,610 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.