271 Lake Pointe Cir #271 · Middle Island, NY 11953

$250,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 889 sqft · Condo · 36 Days on market

Built 1987 $281/sqft · 6% below area Est $267k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated ground-floor 2-bedroom, 1-bath unit. Step inside and immediately feel at home. The updated kitchen, featuring granite countertops, gas cooking, and ample cabinetry, perfect for everyday living and easy entertaining. The open flow continues with vinyl flooring throughout. Features include a new natural gas boiler and newer AC condenser, giving you peace of mind for years to come. Updated bathroom showcases a clean, modern look with classic subway tile finishes. A wood-enclosed exterior deck, creating the perfect private space to relax, unwind, or enjoy your morning coffee. Plus, the convenience of an in-unit washer and dryer combo adds everyday ease that’s hard to find. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a low-maintenance lifestyle, this home checks all the boxes with style, updates, and true turnkey living in a desirable community close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. Nothing to do but move in and enjoy

Key facts

• Built 1987
• Listed 36 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.3% in Middle Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#703 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $250k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.86%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,153
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -6.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-26,149
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,174
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11953

• Home prices YoY: -20.2%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,472 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
465 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 465 Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	695	$2,405	$3.46	43d	1	0.09mi
463 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 463 Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	695	$2,555	$3.68	44d	1	0.10mi
356 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 356 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	44d	1	0.12mi
388 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 388 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.5	785	$2,650	$3.38	43d	1	0.14mi
394 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 394 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.5	785	$2,650	$3.38	24d	1	0.14mi
444 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 444 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	43d	1	0.17mi
135 Lake Pointe Ct Unit 135 Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	695	$2,405	$3.46	43d	1	0.17mi
462 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 462 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	43d	1	0.17mi
130 Lake Pointe Ct Unit 130 Brookhaven, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	43d	1	0.19mi
238 Artist Lake Dr Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$2,450	$3.06	24d	1	0.28mi
229 Artist Lake Dr Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	850	$2,075	$2.44	4d	1	0.30mi
285 Artist Lake Dr Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	836	$1,975	$2.36	43d	1	0.32mi
9 Fairview Cir Unit 2 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.5	947	$2,500	$2.64	43d	1	0.46mi
9 Fairview Cir Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.5	947	$2,400	$2.53	24d	1	0.46mi
524 Tudor Ln Unit 524 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	897	$2,780	$3.10	43d	1	0.48mi
301 Tudor Ln Unit 301 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	897	$2,780	$3.10	43d	1	0.53mi
5 Independence Ct Unit 5A Ridge, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,700	$2.70	19d	1	1.31mi
3 Saratoga Ct Unit B Ridge, NY	2.0	1.0	880	$2,800	$3.18	43d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: gas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-12
   price $250,000 985-char remark

   Show marketing remark (985 chars)

   Beautifully updated ground-floor 2-bedroom, 1-bath unit. Step inside and immediately feel at home. The updated kitchen, featuring granite countertops, gas cooking, and ample cabinetry, perfect for everyday living and easy entertaining. The open flow continues with vinyl flooring throughout. Features include a new natural gas boiler and newer AC condenser, giving you peace of mind for years to come. Updated bathroom showcases a clean, modern look with classic subway tile finishes. A wood-enclosed exterior deck, creating the perfect private space to relax, unwind, or enjoy your morning coffee. Plus, the convenience of an in-unit washer and dryer combo adds everyday ease that’s hard to find. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a low-maintenance lifestyle, this home checks all the boxes with style, updates, and true turnkey living in a desirable community close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. Nothing to do but move in and enjoy

2. 2026-04-20
   listed $279,999 Active 985-char remark

   Show marketing remark (985 chars)

   Beautifully updated ground-floor 2-bedroom, 1-bath unit. Step inside and immediately feel at home. The updated kitchen, featuring granite countertops, gas cooking, and ample cabinetry, perfect for everyday living and easy entertaining. The open flow continues with vinyl flooring throughout. Features include a new natural gas boiler and newer AC condenser, giving you peace of mind for years to come. Updated bathroom showcases a clean, modern look with classic subway tile finishes. A wood-enclosed exterior deck, creating the perfect private space to relax, unwind, or enjoy your morning coffee. Plus, the convenience of an in-unit washer and dryer combo adds everyday ease that’s hard to find. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a low-maintenance lifestyle, this home checks all the boxes with style, updates, and true turnkey living in a desirable community close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. Nothing to do but move in and enjoy

3. 2016-09-20
   soldstatus $110,500 398-char remark

   Show marketing remark (398 chars)

   This Is A Must See!! Beautiful Lower Unit! Completely Updated!! Gorgeous Granite Counter, New Soft Close Cabinets, New Kitchen Appliances, Laminate Flooring Throughout, Updated Bathroom With New Tile In Tub, Custom Bathroom Built-In. Clubhouse With Gym, Pool, Playground, Walk To Lake. Owner Is Motivated And Wants To Hear Offers!, Additional information: Interior Features:Efficiency Kitchen,Lr/Dr

4. 2016-09-20
   soldstatus $110,500 Closed

   Show marketing remark (398 chars)

   This Is A Must See!! Beautiful Lower Unit! Completely Updated!! Gorgeous Granite Counter, New Soft Close Cabinets, New Kitchen Appliances, Laminate Flooring Throughout, Updated Bathroom With New Tile In Tub, Custom Bathroom Built-In. Clubhouse With Gym, Pool, Playground, Walk To Lake. Owner Is Motivated And Wants To Hear Offers!, Additional information: Interior Features:Efficiency Kitchen,Lr/Dr

5. 2016-06-02
   status Under Contract
6. 2016-03-12
   listed $119,500 New
7. 2016-03-11
   listed $119,500 398-char remark

   Show marketing remark (398 chars)

   This Is A Must See!! Beautiful Lower Unit! Completely Updated!! Gorgeous Granite Counter, New Soft Close Cabinets, New Kitchen Appliances, Laminate Flooring Throughout, Updated Bathroom With New Tile In Tub, Custom Bathroom Built-In. Clubhouse With Gym, Pool, Playground, Walk To Lake. Owner Is Motivated And Wants To Hear Offers!, Additional information: Interior Features:Efficiency Kitchen,Lr/Dr

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,373
• − Management: −$2,373
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$1,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$327
• After-tax cash flow: $3,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Longwood Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619230
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $72,748
• Composite: 51.63/100
• National rank: #1703
• State rank: #235 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middle Island

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #703
• US rank: #13264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle Island, NY
• City population: 13,383
• Population (ZIP): 13,383

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 15% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.61%
• Current HPI: 358.0686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+109.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $279,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-20 Sold (MLS) $110,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-20 Sold (MLS) $110,500 MLSLI
• 2016-06-02 Pending — MLSLI
• 2016-03-12 Listed $119,500 MLSLI
• 2016-03-11 Listed $119,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid