6895 Belle Meade Rd · Horn Lake, MS 38637

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,263 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 233 Days on market

Built 2000 0.34 ac lot Est $220k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this charming home situated in the heart of Horn Lake. This newly remodeled home features 3 bedroom 1.5 bath (master does have a shower) with a car garage. This spacious home has beautiful water proof laminate floors. Property has new installed roof, freshly painted, new doors and new garage doors.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Covered patio
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COVERED PATIO
• SPACIOUS YARD
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($312/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#196 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shadow Oaks Elementary School (459 students, 99% FRL); Horn Lake Middle School (math 37% / reading 21%, grade F, #90 of 179 statewide, top 52%, 1,021 students, 100% FRL); Horn Lake High (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #98 of 197 statewide, top 49%, 1,361 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Desoto County School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 98 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,092 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,762
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6795 Dunbarton Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-0%)	4mo	$208,000	$165	88
3810 Union Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,308 (+4%)	2mo	$235,000	$180	80
3405 Woodbine Cv	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,246 (-1%)	4mo	$194,900	$156	78
6570 Westbury Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+4%)	0mo	$200,000	$152	75
3410 Dorchester Cv	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,351 (+7%)	1mo	$95,500	$71	71
4194 Blackstone Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+3%)	1mo	$199,900	$154	67
6395 Kensington Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,322 (+5%)	1mo	$242,000	$183	67
3783 Conrail Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,377 (+9%)	2mo	$240,000	$174	66
3350 W Tulane Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,357 (+7%)	4mo	$175,000	$129	59
6325 Collinwood Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,162 (-8%)	2mo	$202,000	$174	56
6701 Tulane Rd	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,236 (-2%)	6mo	$219,000	$177	54
3430 Mayfair Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,089 (-14%)	3mo	$204,900	$188	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-38,196
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-50,521
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38637

• Home prices YoY: -13.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,681 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,018/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,648

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $148	-5% $87	+0% $26	+5% $-35	+10% $-96
Rent	-10% $-107	-5% $-40	+0% $26	+5% $92	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $81	base $26	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3915 Woodland Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,775	$1.27	45d	1	0.22mi
3985 Fernway Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1726	$1,903	$1.10	45d	1	0.23mi
3914 Santa Fe Loop Horn Lake, MS	3.0	3.0	1238	$1,673	$1.35	25d	1	0.30mi
7266 Illinois Central Ave Horn Lake, MS	3.0	3.0	1778	$1,718	$0.97	3d	1	0.33mi
3560 Lakehurst Dr Horn Lake, MS	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,425	$1.10	18d	1	0.36mi
7340 Durango Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,705	$1.25	6d	1	0.42mi
7163 Layne Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,595	$1.21	25d	1	0.42mi
4238 Highgate Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,585	$1.29	45d	1	0.49mi
7080 Benji Ave Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,550	$1.21	45d	1	0.49mi
3437 Laurelwood St Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,480	$1.23	13d	1	0.49mi
6585 Fairwood Cv Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,553	$1.05	25d	1	0.49mi
6455 Walnut Grove Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,600	$1.36	45d	1	0.52mi
3530 Mayfair Dr Horn Lake, MS	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	16d	1	0.55mi
6445 Collinwood Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,593	$1.10	3d	1	0.56mi
7202 Brenwood Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,705	$1.14	23d	1	0.56mi
6420 Sandhurst Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,623	$1.47	23d	1	0.56mi
4355 Shadow Ridge Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,760	$1.30	6d	1	0.60mi
7341 Lee Ann Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,660	$1.33	3d	1	0.60mi
4174 Highgate Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1197	$1,495	$1.25	18d	1	0.61mi
6420 Cornwall Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1189	$1,550	$1.30	16d	1	0.62mi
7101 Tulane Rd N Horn Lake, MS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1189	$1,750	$1.47	3d	6	0.66mi
6290 Sandhurst Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,600	$1.36	6d	1	0.67mi
6270 Jamestown Ave Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,523	$1.45	45d	1	0.68mi
4192 Anderton Blvd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,575	$1.43	25d	1	0.68mi
4192 Anderton Blvd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,575	$1.43	16d	1	0.68mi
6620 Tealwood Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1833	$2,170	$1.18	5d	1	0.72mi
3780 Southbrook Dr Horn Lake, MS	4.0	2.0	1444	$1,550	$1.07	6d	1	0.73mi
6225 Sandhurst Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	45d	1	0.74mi
7311 Madelyn Cv Horn Lake, MS	3.0	3.0	1263	$1,395	$1.10	23d	1	0.74mi
7311 Madelyn Cv Horn Lake, MS	3.0	3.0	1263	$1,395	$1.10	25d	1	0.74mi
6392 Manchester Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,715	$1.27	3d	1	0.75mi
6420 Forestgate Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,573	$1.40	23d	1	0.77mi
4506 Shadow Hollow Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,645	$1.27	3d	1	0.78mi
3285 Edenshire Ln Horn Lake, MS	2.0	2.0	1407	$1,573	$1.12	25d	1	0.81mi
7063 Foxhall Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,745	$1.25	6d	1	0.82mi
4088 Carroll Dr W Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1614	$1,815	$1.12	6d	1	0.83mi
7609 Woodshire Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,690	$1.14	45d	1	0.83mi
7066 Foxhall Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	998	$1,395	$1.40	46d	1	0.85mi
6165 Forestgate Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1079	$1,400	$1.30	45d	1	0.88mi
6475 Forest Glen Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,395	$1.27	45d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-01
   status Active
3. 2026-02-28
   historical
4. 2025-11-20
   price $215,000
5. 2025-10-22
   price $228,900
6. 2025-08-29
   listed $239,900 Active
7. 2022-10-20
   soldstatus Closed 317-char remark

   Show marketing remark (317 chars)

   Don't miss out on this charming home situated in the heart of Horn Lake. This newly remodeled home features 3 bedroom 1.5 bath (master does have a shower) with a car garage. This spacious home has beautiful water proof laminate floors. Property has new installed roof, freshly painted, new doors and new garage doors.

8. 2022-09-28
   status Pending 317-char remark

   Show marketing remark (317 chars)

   Don't miss out on this charming home situated in the heart of Horn Lake. This newly remodeled home features 3 bedroom 1.5 bath (master does have a shower) with a car garage. This spacious home has beautiful water proof laminate floors. Property has new installed roof, freshly painted, new doors and new garage doors.

9. 2022-09-24
   listed $209,900 Active 317-char remark

   Show marketing remark (317 chars)

   Don't miss out on this charming home situated in the heart of Horn Lake. This newly remodeled home features 3 bedroom 1.5 bath (master does have a shower) with a car garage. This spacious home has beautiful water proof laminate floors. Property has new installed roof, freshly painted, new doors and new garage doors.

10. 1998-10-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,018 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,699 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$680/yr (+$57/mo · 66.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,018
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$3,447
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$827
• After-tax cash flow: $1,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Horn Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #17977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horn Lake, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 26,647
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 26,647
• Household income: $53,311
• Rent vs Own: 41.9% rent · 58.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1052.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 44% White 42% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.08%
• Current HPI: 206.5542
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+2.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-01 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $215,000 MLSU
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $228,900 MLSU
• 2025-08-29 Listed $239,900 MLSU
• 2022-10-20 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-09-28 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-09-24 Listed $209,900 MLSU
• 1998-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,018 · +20.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.