3417 Two Creeks Rd · Guthrie, OK 73044

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Land public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1985 4.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BACK ON THE MARKET, At No Fault of the Seller. With INSTANT EQUITY, appraised for $132,000 as-is. Great location with quick access to I-35, offering the perfect balance of convenience and country freedom. If you have been looking for land close to town and everyday amenities, while still enjoying the flexibility of county living, this property is a must-see. The property is already equipped with a well, septic, electric, and pond access, adding tremendous value and functionality. There is currently a existing home on the property, but the true value is in the land and its potential. Whether you are planning for a new build, or a mobile home setup, this property offers the versatility to fit

Key facts

• Quick access to i-35
• Land close to town
• Pond access

Tags

• QUICK ACCESS TO I-35
• LAND CLOSE TO TOWN
• WELL
• SEPTIC
• ELECTRIC
• POND ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Four Creek Estate; Homestead not claimed
• Financial info: Loan qualification possible; Not assumable
• HOA & community: No mandatory association dues

Exterior

• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; North-facing; Residential property; Existing construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Storage; Wooded lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One living area; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.0% in Guthrie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#15 in OK, #4,696 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Guthrie (town): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #119 of 270 in OK (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Central Es (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #711 of 845 statewide, top 87%, 278 students, 0% FRL); Guthrie Hs (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #125 of 447 statewide, top 31%, 1,025 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 843 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $125k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.11%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,647
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $56,769
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73044

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 843
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,327 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $906/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $991

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $336	-5% $301	+0% $266	+5% $230	+10% $195
Rent	-10% $161	-5% $213	+0% $266	+5% $318	+10% $370
Rate	-1.0pp $329	-0.5pp $297	base $266	+0.5pp $233	+1.0pp $200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   status $125,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
8. 2026-03-31
   listed $125,000 Active
9. 2026-03-11
   soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $906 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,125 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$219/yr (+$18/mo · 24.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,930
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$906
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,274
• − Management: −$1,274
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,212
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$291
• After-tax cash flow: $2,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guthrie
• NCES district ID: 4013560
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,370
• Composite: 20.79/100
• National rank: #8513
• State rank: #119 of 270 in OK

Livability — Guthrie

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #4696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Logan County · 25,398 people
• City population: 25,398
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• Population (ZIP): 25,398
• Household income: $72,288
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,683 people
• By 2030: 60,011 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 68,071 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 75,815 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 94,749 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 108,057 · +94.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.4% · R 73.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+47.1 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.90%
• Current HPI: 247.9481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.22%
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — MLSOK
• 2026-03-31 Listed $125,000 MLSOK
• 2026-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $906 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.