14524 Sage Bloom Ln · Elgin, TX 78621

$266,115

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot Est $259k · at est. $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your next home! As you enter from the porch into the foyer, you're immediately greeted by the open dining area, kitchen, and family room. Just off the family room, you'll find a spacious back patio. On the opposite side of the kitchen and family room are two additional bedrooms that share a bath, along with a laundry room that provides access to the two-car garage. At the far end of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and private primary bath.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Front porch
• Patio accessible

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• COAT CLOSET
• LINEN STORAGE
• KITCHEN OPENS TO FAMILY ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PATIO ACCESSIBLE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Eagles Landing Residential Community HOA) with a $35 monthly fee covering common area maintenance; Community amenities include playground, park, trails/paths, sidewalks, curbs, street lights, community mailbox, and common grounds

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; Garage faces front; Two covered parking spaces (2 total)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; High-speed internet available; Cable available; Phone available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction by Starlight Homes; Faces north; Slab foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank type and masonry exterior; Composition/shingle roof; Built as new construction (builder source)
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Patio; Back yard; Front yard; Sprinklers in front and rear (automatic, in-ground); Fenced back yard with wood privacy fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Pantry; Kitchen/family room combo; Icemaker; Microwave; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Entrance foyer; Breakfast bar; Recessed lighting; Granite counters; Pantry; No interior steps; Main level primary; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $266k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-306 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $198,484 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.93%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,370
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18200 Papuan Cv	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	2mo	$235,341	$168	96
14509 Bonellis Pass	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,412 (+1%)	1mo	$275,490	$195	90
18201 Papuan Cv	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,499 (+7%)	3mo	$277,490	$185	83
14624 Wahlbergs Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-7%)	2mo	$269,900	$207	80
14600 Wahlbergs Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-7%)	4mo	$292,900	$224	78
14521 Bonellis Pass	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	6mo	$232,291	$194	65
14713 Eagles Claw Way	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,580 (+13%)	1mo	$272,900	$173	64
13016 Field Plow Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,545 (+10%)	5mo	$222,600	$144	64
18501 Quiet Range Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+8%)	4mo	$235,000	$155	63
14625 Bonellis Pass	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	8mo	$243,945	$203	62
18720 Speculator Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+9%)	8mo	$255,000	$167	60
18825 Golden Eagle Way	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+7%)	7mo	$239,990	$160	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $125,733
• Equity at exit: $239,737

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $386,183
• Equity at exit: $517,003

Cash invested: $74,512 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,985 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,396
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$333 /mo · $3,992/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,372

Max offer price $221,831

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-214	+0% $-306	+5% $-398	+10% $-490
Rent	-10% $-463	-5% $-384	+0% $-306	+5% $-228	+10% $-149
Rate	-1.0pp $-172	-0.5pp $-238	base $-306	+0.5pp $-375	+1.0pp $-445

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,529
• Closing costs: $7,983
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	5d	1	0.02mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	13d	1	0.11mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	45d	1	0.13mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	25d	1	0.13mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	21d	1	0.18mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	45d	1	0.22mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	25d	1	0.34mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,875	$1.23	0d	1	0.36mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	6d	1	0.39mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	25d	1	0.39mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	19d	1	0.41mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,935	$1.08	0d	1	0.44mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	3d	1	0.49mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	0d	1	0.57mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,800	$1.18	0d	1	0.63mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,765	$1.14	0d	1	0.64mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	6d	1	0.77mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	0d	1	0.79mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	45d	1	0.92mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	0d	6	1.03mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	16d	1	1.06mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	45d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $266,115 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $266,115 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $266,115 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $266,115 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $266,115 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 535-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $266,115 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,818
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,907
• − Property taxes: −$3,992
• − Insurance: −$1,331
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,905
• − Management: −$1,905
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$7,742
• Taxable loss: −$8,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,012
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $266,115 Zillow
• 2026-06-12 Listed $266,115 Unlock MLS