36 Willow St · Lackawanna, NY 14218

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1900 4,200 sqft lot $102/sqft · 39% below area Est $280k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Welcome to 36 Willow St in Lackawanna—a clean, well-maintained 2-unit property that’s ready for its next owner. The lower unit offers 2 bedrooms with durable laminate flooring throughout, while the upper unit features 1 bedroom with a mix of laminate flooring and new carpet, along with a private rear deck for added outdoor space. Major updates have already been taken care of, including a new metal roof and gutters (2024) and new hot water tanks for both units—giving you peace of mind right out of the gate. The lower unit is heated by a furnace, while the upper unit has its own gas wall furnace. A huge bonus here is the detached 2-car garage with an attached storage area&md

Key facts

• 4,200 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Residential 2 Unit
• Financial info: Owner pays water; Rent includes water; Operating expense details: see remarks; One unit currently leased at $1,200/month (lease expires June 1, 2026); Two separate gas meters and two separate electric meters for the units

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Paved parking
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Two-story residential 2-unit building; Resale property; Rectangular lot with city street frontage; Located in a flood zone and near public transit
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit includes an oven/range and refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen in each unit
• Bedrooms: One 1-bedroom unit; One 2-bedroom unit
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies by area
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Forced air; Wall furnace
• Interior features: Carpet and laminate flooring in varying areas; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $510/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 5.4% in Lackawanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#254 in NY, #4,026 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Lackawanna City School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #588 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $167,351 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.75%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,777
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -39.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1685 Electric Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-1%)	17mo	$150,000	$91	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $37,526
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $116,560
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14218

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,774 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,506/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $1,021

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,482

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,117	-5% $1,069	+0% $1,021	+5% $973	+10% $925
Rent	-10% $802	-5% $911	+0% $1,021	+5% $1,130	+10% $1,240
Rate	-1.0pp $1,106	-0.5pp $1,064	base $1,021	+0.5pp $977	+1.0pp $932

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$2,774
Total (2 units)			$2,774

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40 Vincent Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1075	$875	$0.81	25d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $169,900 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $169,900 Active 1149-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,506 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,689 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: +$183/yr (+$15/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,506
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,663
• − Management: −$2,663
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $10,147
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,435
• After-tax cash flow: $9,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lackawanna City School District
• NCES district ID: 3616440
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,041
• Composite: 19.76/100
• National rank: #8708
• State rank: #588 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lackawanna

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #4026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lackawanna, NY
• City population: 20,661
• Population (ZIP): 20,661

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Arabic 11% Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.44%
• Current HPI: 389.0188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $169,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,506 · +14.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.