Plan 2566 Modeled Plan · North Weeki Wachee, FL 34613

$321,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,566 sqft · SingleFamily · 248 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Open floor plan * Dedicated pantry, linen and coat closets * Spacious great room * Front porch * Kitchen USB charging port * Upstairs laundry room * Den * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Tot lot * Dog park * Commuter-friendly location * Near the ocean * Outdoor recreation nearby * Master-planned community

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Low-e windows
• Dedicated pantry

Tags

• LOW-E WINDOWS
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DEDICATED PANTRY
• KITCHEN USB CHARGING PORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $321,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction single-family plan (Plan 2566 Modeled); Active listing
• Exterior features: Property located at 10264 Mocassin Ct, Weeki Wachee, FL 34613

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (listed living area 2566); New construction plan (Plan 2566 Modeled)

🏗️ New construction. The $321,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $359,240.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $322k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-345 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.9% in North Weeki Wachee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#534 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,705/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 307% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $270,526 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.12%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10353 Turtle Run Rd	0.05mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,605 (+2%)	7mo	$372,990	$143	83
10387 Turtle Run Rd	0.08mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,605 (+2%)	7mo	$377,990	$145	81
10519 Tucker Rd	0.18mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,447 (-5%)	1mo	$315,990	$129	76
10466 Tucker Rd	0.12mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,447 (-5%)	4mo	$315,990	$129	76
10485 Tucker Rd	0.16mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,447 (-5%)	3mo	$315,990	$129	76
10455 Tucker Rd	0.14mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,447 (-5%)	5mo	$320,000	$131	74
10540 Tucker Rd	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,260 (-12%)	1mo	$321,000	$142	72
10471 Tucker Rd	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,260 (-12%)	3mo	$319,990	$142	71
10460 Tucker Rd	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,260 (-12%)	6mo	$312,990	$138	70
10507 Tucker Rd	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,260 (-12%)	3mo	$310,000	$137	70
10447 Tucker Rd	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,260 (-12%)	6mo	$315,990	$140	69
11079 Millerdale Rd	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,435 (-5%)	8mo	$418,100	$172	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-80,175
• Equity at exit: $53,564

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-97,982
• Equity at exit: $31,061

Cash invested: $100,587 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34613

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,705 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,884
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$449 /mo · $5,389/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $-345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,143

Max offer price $309,250

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-97	-5% $-221	+0% $-345	+5% $-470	+10% $-594
Rent	-10% $-559	-5% $-452	+0% $-345	+5% $-239	+10% $-132
Rate	-1.0pp $-165	-0.5pp $-254	base $-345	+0.5pp $-439	+1.0pp $-533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,810
• Closing costs: $10,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10507 Tucker Rd Weeki Wachee, FL	4.0	2.5	2650	$2,650	$1.00	25d	1	0.14mi
9376 Southern Belle Dr Weeki Wachee, FL	3.0	2.0	2028	$2,300	$1.13	3d	1	1.41mi
9376 Southern Belle Dr Weeki Wachee, FL	3.0	2.0	2028	$2,300	$1.13	6d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $321,990 Active 248 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $321,990 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $321,990 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $321,990 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $321,990 Active 242 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $321,990 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $321,990 Active 239 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $321,990 Active 236 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $321,990 Active 235 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $321,990 Active 234 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $321,990 Active 231 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $321,990 Active 230 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $321,990 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $321,990 Active 228 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $321,990 Active 227 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,123
• − Property taxes: −$5,389
• − Insurance: −$1,796
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,597
• − Management: −$2,597
• − Depreciation: −$10,451
• Taxable loss: −$10,489
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,517
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Weeki Wachee

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10019

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Weeki Wachee, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 18,280
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,337
• Household income: $58,596
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.51%
• Current HPI: 276.2229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B