4016 Madison St · Gary, IN 46408

$20,548

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1928 4,356 sqft lot $31/sqft · 45% below area Est $38k · 45% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Single Family home in Gary, Indiana offers 672 square feet of living space on a 0.10-acre lot. Built in 1928, this one story property features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. (as-is, handyman special, investor special)

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1928
• Listed 50 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $21k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $714 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $21k).
• Recommended offer: $20k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 48.0% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $142 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $616 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $19,931 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 47.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 148.91%
• DSCR: 7.63
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $37,534
• List price: $20,548
• Delta: -45.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4034 Fillmore St	0.44mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	2mo	$28,000	$42	78
3953 Monroe St	0.08mi	2/1.0	740 (+10%)	2mo	$57,000	$77	77
4024 Monroe St	0.06mi	2/1.0	728 (+8%)	12mo	$35,000	$48	73
4045 Massachusetts St	0.34mi	2/1.5	736 (+10%)	8mo	$3,500	$5	60
3518 Massachusetts St	0.69mi	2/1.0	660 (-2%)	9mo	$23,000	$35	58
3760 Monroe St	0.33mi	2/1.0	734 (+9%)	16mo	$35,000	$48	56
4331 Maryland St	0.72mi	2/1.0	686 (+2%)	14mo	$10,000	$15	51
4047 Grant St	0.73mi	2/1.0	660 (-2%)	21mo	$45,000	$68	46
3960 Tyler St	0.32mi	2/1.0	759 (+13%)	24mo	$23,000	$30	44
4001 Virginia St	0.65mi	2/1.0	760 (+13%)	8mo	$45,000	$59	41
4249 Maryland St	0.67mi	2/1.0	620 (-8%)	19mo	$13,500	$22	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.33×
• Total profit: $42,153
• Equity at exit: $3,064

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.57×
• Total profit: $95,306
• Equity at exit: $1,777

Cash invested: $5,753 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46408

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,075 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$108
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $226/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $714

Break-even live

Break-even rent $171

Max offer price $20,548

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $726	-5% $720	+0% $714	+5% $708	+10% $702
Rent	-10% $629	-5% $671	+0% $714	+5% $756	+10% $799
Rate	-1.0pp $724	-0.5pp $719	base $714	+0.5pp $709	+1.0pp $703

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,137
• Closing costs: $616
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4327 Monroe St Unit 1st front Gary, IN	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	0d	1	0.43mi
4170 Fillmore St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	720	$950	$1.32	20d	1	0.52mi
3942 Lincoln St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	520	$1,150	$2.21	8d	1	0.66mi
3942 Lincoln St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	520	$1,150	$2.21	4d	1	0.66mi
1005 W 35th Ave Apt 202 Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	617	$795	$1.29	2d	1	0.72mi
1005 W 35th Ave Apt 105 Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	601	$795	$1.32	19d	1	0.72mi
1015 W 35th Ave Apt 206 Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	601	$795	$1.32	44d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $20,548 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $20,548 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $20,548 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $20,548 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $20,648 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $20,648 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $20,648 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,673 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $20,673 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $20,698 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $20,798 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $20,798 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $20,798 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $20,798 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $20,898 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $20,898 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $21,299 218-char remark
18. 2026-05-06
    price $21,330 218-char remark
19. 2026-04-29
    listed $21,990 Active 218-char remark
20. 2026-04-13
    price $21,990
21. 2026-04-09
    price $21,999
22. 2026-04-02
    price $22,000
23. 2026-03-23
    price $22,777
24. 2026-03-17
    price $23,777
25. 2026-03-06
    price $23,900
26. 2026-03-02
    price $24,900
27. 2026-02-23
    price $26,400
28. 2026-02-16
    listed $26,900 Active
29. 2014-03-27
    historical
30. 2013-05-10
    listed $1,500
31. 2012-07-07
    historical
32. 2012-03-08
    listed $1,500
33. 2007-07-11
    listed $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $226 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $226 · $19/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,151
• − Property taxes: −$226
• − Insurance: −$103
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,032
• − Management: −$1,032
• − Depreciation: −$598
• Taxable income: $8,756
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,102
• After-tax cash flow: $6,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 15,747
• Household income: $47,453
• Rent vs Own: 41.2% rent · 58.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 619.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 41% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.08%
• Current HPI: 155.6238
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-17.8% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $20,548 IRMLS
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $20,648 IRMLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $20,673 IRMLS
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $20,698 IRMLS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $20,798 IRMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $20,898 IRMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $20,899 IRMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $20,900 IRMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $21,299 IRMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $21,330 IRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $21,990 IRMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $21,999 IRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $22,000 IRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $22,777 IRMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $23,777 IRMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $23,900 IRMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $24,900 IRMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $26,400 IRMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $26,900 IRMLS
• 2014-03-27 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-10 Listed $1,500 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-07 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-08 Listed $1,500 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-11 Listed $25,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-15.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $226 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.