4873 Marsh Harbor Dr · Tavares, FL 32778

$274,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,371 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2000 8,250 sqft lot Est $256k · 7% over $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +4.2/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Enjoy recreation right in your backyard. This 3-bedroom 2 bath home is located in the Groves At Baytree a lifestyle community. Enjoy recreation facilities including a gymnasium, swimming pool and fitness center right in your own community. This home is ready to move in with cathedral ceilings, rear screened lanai, dishwasher, range refrigerator and ceiling fans. A new shingle roof was installed in January 2026. Located close to downtown Tavares lakefront shopping and restaurants. Come see for yourself how you can enjoy this lifestyle at the Groves today!

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• New shingle roof
• Lifestyle community

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• NEW SHINGLE ROOF
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN TAVARES
• LIFESTYLE COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-913/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tavares Elementary School (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 875 students, 61% FRL); Tavares High School (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,507 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $275k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,666 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.19%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $256,377
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4873 Marsh Harbor Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,371 (0%)	0mo	$275,000	$201	100
4520 Treasure Cay Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,486 (+8%)	4mo	$180,000	$121	72
401 Baytree Blvd	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (+2%)	9mo	$244,000	$175	70
316 Baytree Blvd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,486 (+8%)	2mo	$270,000	$182	69
204 Baytree Blvd	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,446 (+6%)	4mo	$262,000	$181	68
4464 Caicos Dr	0.30mi	3/3.0	1,470 (+7%)	2mo	$310,000	$211	68
3323 Manatee Rd	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,353 (-1%)	14mo	$190,000	$140	66
239 Juniper Way	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,228 (-10%)	4mo	$230,000	$187	65
31710 Clayton St	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (-3%)	16mo	$150,000	$113	55
325 Baytree Blvd	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+6%)	19mo	$300,000	$206	54
31941 Tropical Shores Dr	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,532 (+12%)	11mo	$508,000	$332	38
2722 Vindale Rd	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-13%)	18mo	$230,000	$194	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-47,192
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-38,108
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,117 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,465/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,213

Max offer price $261,463

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $2	+0% $-76	+5% $-154	+10% $-232
Rent	-10% $-243	-5% $-160	+0% $-76	+5% $8	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $62	-0.5pp $-6	base $-76	+0.5pp $-147	+1.0pp $-220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4950 Marsh Harbor Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$2,050	$1.67	4d	1	0.06mi
4567 Barbuda Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,150	$1.58	24d	1	0.08mi
4721 Treasure Cay Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,000	$1.46	15d	1	0.17mi
4659 Treasure Cay Rd Tavares, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,125	$1.21	5d	1	0.20mi
3224 Manatee Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,600	$1.02	5d	1	0.25mi
615 Juniper Way Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,900	$1.57	18d	1	0.57mi
500 E Rosewood Ln Unit 154 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,650	$1.45	24d	1	0.66mi
459 E Rosewood Ln #157 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,400	$1.13	22d	1	0.68mi
741 W Rosewood Ln Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,195	$1.06	3d	1	0.76mi
465 Oak Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	3.0	1550	$1,750	$1.13	24d	1	1.11mi
1585 Dead River Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,990	$1.89	24d	1	1.13mi
30024 Tavares Ridge Blvd Unit 62 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,000	$1.75	24d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $274,900 Active
3. 2002-01-04
   soldstatus $112,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,465 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,282 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$817/yr (+$68/mo · 55.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$1,465
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,032
• − Management: −$2,032
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$5,739
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,377
• After-tax cash flow: $465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tavares, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+145.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $274,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,465 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.