1407 Middle #45 · Calverton, NY 11933

$339,998

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 1995 Average condition $253/sqft · 31% above area Est $260k · 31% over $835/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Immaculate 2 bedroom, 2 bath unit with formal dining room, spacious living room, master bedroom with master bath, second bedroom, hall bathroom with a beautiful skylight. All set in Lively 55 & over 45 land lease gated community. Amenities include, pool, clubhouse, bowling, bocce & bingo!! All buyers must be approved by Foxwood Village, a $20.00 application fee for security/background check will apply. $537.00 HOA fees include, water, sewer, garbage collection, clubhouse, pool and all amenities., Additional information: Min Age:55

Key facts

• Gated community
• Community pool
• Gated security

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• RECREATIONAL CLUBHOUSE
• BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED GROUNDS
• GATED SECURITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community with clubhouse, fitness center, gated entry and pool; Association fees apply: $835 monthly; Additional association fees: $799 monthly (described as assoc. fees); Association fees include common area maintenance, grounds care, pool service, snow removal and trash service

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; Garage parking (1 space)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Mobile home
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; Primary bathroom; Dining area; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $340k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($37k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $340k).
• Recommended offer: $330k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 7.2% in Calverton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,053 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riley Avenue School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 461 students, 34% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $95k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $280k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $329,798 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.04%
• DSCR: 2.74
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,261
• List price: $339,998
• Delta: 30.64%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1407 unit 4 Middle Rd #4	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	9mo	$425,000	$304	77
1795 Osborne Ave #75	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$265,000	$197	66
433 Mill Rd Unit 1	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	7mo	$167,000	$124	58
1800 Obsorne Ave 23e	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	12mo	$235,000	$175	54
1800 Osborn Ave Unit 27E	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+12%)	4mo	$210,000	$140	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $243,323
• Equity at exit: $157,872

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.14×
• Total profit: $584,602
• Equity at exit: $247,255

Cash invested: $95,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $818/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$835
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,575
• Net cashflow: $3,097

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,579

Max offer price $339,998

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Mastro Ct Calverton, NY	3.0	2.5	1822	$7,500	$4.12	1d	1	0.70mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $835 · $10,020/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpoolsecurity

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,998 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,998 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,998 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,998 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,998 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,998 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,998 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   price $339,998 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $339,999 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $339,999 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,999 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,999 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,999 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,999 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $339,999 Active 943-char remark
16. 2022-02-11
    soldstatus $280,000 Closed 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Immaculate 2 bedroom, 2 bath unit with formal dining room, spacious living room, master bedroom with master bath, second bedroom, hall bathroom with a beautiful skylight. All set in Lively 55 & over 45 land lease gated community. Amenities include, pool, clubhouse, bowling, bocce & bingo!! All buyers must be approved by Foxwood Village, a $20.00 application fee for security/background check will apply. $537.00 HOA fees include, water, sewer, garbage collection, clubhouse, pool and all amenities., Additional information: Min Age:55

17. 2021-12-20
    status Pending 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Immaculate 2 bedroom, 2 bath unit with formal dining room, spacious living room, master bedroom with master bath, second bedroom, hall bathroom with a beautiful skylight. All set in Lively 55 & over 45 land lease gated community. Amenities include, pool, clubhouse, bowling, bocce & bingo!! All buyers must be approved by Foxwood Village, a $20.00 application fee for security/background check will apply. $537.00 HOA fees include, water, sewer, garbage collection, clubhouse, pool and all amenities., Additional information: Min Age:55

18. 2021-07-19
    price $270,999 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Immaculate 2 bedroom, 2 bath unit with formal dining room, spacious living room, master bedroom with master bath, second bedroom, hall bathroom with a beautiful skylight. All set in Lively 55 & over 45 land lease gated community. Amenities include, pool, clubhouse, bowling, bocce & bingo!! All buyers must be approved by Foxwood Village, a $20.00 application fee for security/background check will apply. $537.00 HOA fees include, water, sewer, garbage collection, clubhouse, pool and all amenities., Additional information: Min Age:55

19. 2021-06-21
    listed $280,000 Active 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Immaculate 2 bedroom, 2 bath unit with formal dining room, spacious living room, master bedroom with master bath, second bedroom, hall bathroom with a beautiful skylight. All set in Lively 55 & over 45 land lease gated community. Amenities include, pool, clubhouse, bowling, bocce & bingo!! All buyers must be approved by Foxwood Village, a $20.00 application fee for security/background check will apply. $537.00 HOA fees include, water, sewer, garbage collection, clubhouse, pool and all amenities., Additional information: Min Age:55

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $818 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,282 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,464/yr (+$205/mo · 301.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $90,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$818
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,200
• − Management: −$7,200
• − HOA: −$10,020
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable income: $34,126
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,190
• After-tax cash flow: $28,976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in average condition with some cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value. The property is located in a desirable gated community with amenities, making it a good investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Minor paint — Paint appears faded in some areas.
• Minor kitchen cabinetry — Dated cabinetry suggests a need for updating.
• Minor bathroom fixtures — Dated fixtures suggest a need for updating.
• Minor interior walls — Paint appears faded in some areas.
• Minor landscaping — Some areas of landscaping could benefit from trimming and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior and exterior — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the kitchen cabinetry and fixtures — Modernizing the kitchen can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping and trimming — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Painting the interior and exterior — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the kitchen cabinetry and fixtures — Modernizing the kitchen can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping and trimming — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and property value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
paint · Paint appears faded in some areas.	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen cabinetry · Dated cabinetry suggests a need for updating.	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · Dated fixtures suggest a need for updating.	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · Paint appears faded in some areas.	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · Some areas of landscaping could benefit from trimming and maintenance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$2,500–15,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior and exterior — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen cabinetry and fixtures — Modernizing the kitchen can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and trimming — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Painting the interior and exterior — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen cabinetry and fixtures — Modernizing the kitchen can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and trimming — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Calverton

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #20908

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C- Employment D Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calverton, NY
• City population: 6,784
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+21.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $339,998 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Listed $339,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-11 Sold (MLS) $280,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-20 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-19 Price Changed $270,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-21 Listed $280,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid