817 16th St · Santa Monica, CA 90403

$3,250,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1952 7,483 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Located just off Montana Avenue in one of Santa Monica's most desirable and supply-constrained residential corridors, 817 16th Street presents a rare opportunity to acquire a fully entitled boutique, architectural townhouse-style condominium project in a high-demand neighborhood. The project is comprised of six market-rate residences plus two affordable units, over subterranean parking for ten vehicles and a formally approved subdivision tract map. Designed by Breakform Design, the plans reflect a refined, contemporary architectural vision aligned with the expectations of today's luxury Westside buyer. With Planning Commission approvals secured and the property removed from the rental market via the Ellis Act, a developer can step in and pivot directly into construction documents and plan check. A substantial portion of the entitlement timeline has been completed, creating a streamlined path to market and a compelling opportunity to capitalize on strong end-user demand in a premier Montana-adjacent location.

Key facts

• 7,483 sq ft lot
• Listed 76 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $3.25M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.94M (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.94M (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 1.2% in Santa Monica — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#178 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Santa Monica-Malibu Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #123 of 1,400 in CA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 93 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $29,438/mo this rent would consume 290% of the median local household income ($122k/yr) (locally 2265% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($22k loan paydown + $-3k appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$217k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($3.06M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $500k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $2.52M; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,943,800 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.48%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,491,183,811
• List price: $3,250,000
• Delta: -99.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.1% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-77,091
• Equity at exit: $927,385

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $161,964
• Equity at exit: $1,101,825

Cash invested: $910,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 90403

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 55.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $29,438 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$17,043
• Tax from tax record: −$2,977 /mo · $35,728/yr
• Insurance: −$1,354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,182
• Net cashflow: $1,881

Break-even live

Break-even rent $27,057

Max offer price $3,250,000

Occupancy floor 89%

6-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 6× units	2	2	$29,436
Total (6 units)			$29,438

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $812,500
• Closing costs: $97,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1517 Idaho Ave Santa Monica, CA	2.0	1.0	600	$3,450	$5.75	44d	1	0.07mi
751 18th St Unit A Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$5,950	$7.93	25d	1	0.20mi
832 Euclid St #104 Santa Monica, CA	2.0	2.0	1035	$5,050	$4.88	44d	1	0.23mi
923 Euclid St #302 Santa Monica, CA	1.0	2.0	1077	$4,000	$3.71	17d	1	0.23mi
900 Euclid St Santa Monica, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1100	$5,500	$5.00	3d	2	0.24mi
1037 Euclid St Unit D Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	714	$2,690	$3.77	44d	1	0.34mi
913 20th St Unit 1 Santa Monica, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$3,295	$3.66	11d	1	0.36mi
824 11th St Unit 180-7 Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	675	$2,595	$3.84	44d	1	0.37mi
1025 Idaho Ave Unit 6 Santa Monica, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,695	$3.36	44d	1	0.38mi
1025 Idaho Ave Unit 9 Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	800	$2,950	$3.69	4d	1	0.38mi
1025 Idaho Ave Unit 9 Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$2,950	$3.93	6d	1	0.38mi
1025 Idaho Ave Unit 2 Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	800	$3,100	$3.88	44d	1	0.39mi
832 21st St Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	780	$2,850	$3.65	17d	1	0.39mi
2102 Montana Ave Unit 2102 Santa Monica, CA	2.0	1.0	880	$4,299	$4.89	44d	1	0.42mi
2102 Montana Ave Unit 2106 Santa Monica, CA	2.0	1.0	880	$3,999	$4.54	44d	1	0.42mi
1027 11th St Santa Monica, CA	2.0	3.0	850	$4,650	$5.47	44d	1	0.43mi
1144 15th St Unit 7 Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$3,700	$5.69	44d	1	0.44mi
1037 11th St Unit 1 Santa Monica, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$4,195	$4.20	8d	1	0.44mi
1111 12th St Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$2,595	$4.72	22d	1	0.46mi
1111 12th St Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$2,595	$4.72	21d	1	0.46mi
1045 20th St Apt E Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	690	$2,290	$3.32	25d	1	0.46mi
827 9th St Unit 7 Santa Monica, CA	2.0	1.5	950	$3,400	$3.58	25d	1	0.49mi
1118 20th St Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$2,300	$3.83	44d	1	0.49mi
1037 10th St Apt 203 Santa Monica, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,695	$3.36	44d	1	0.50mi
627 9th St Unit D Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$2,800	$4.67	6d	1	0.51mi
1020 10th St Unit A Santa Monica, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$5,950	$5.41	5d	1	0.51mi
1138 12th St #5 Santa Monica, CA	2.0	2.0	1045	$5,000	$4.78	8d	1	0.52mi
1137 11th St Santa Monica, CA	2.0	2.0	860	$3,695	$4.30	44d	1	0.54mi
1117 10th St Unit 4 Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$2,195	$3.66	21d	1	0.57mi
1123 10th St Unit E Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	615	$3,500	$5.69	4d	1	0.57mi
911 Lincoln Blvd Unit 10 Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	800	$2,600	$3.25	44d	1	0.58mi
917 Lincoln Blvd Unit 5 Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$3,350	$5.58	15d	1	0.58mi
921 Lincoln Blvd Unit A Santa Monica, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,800	$3.80	44d	1	0.58mi
1018 9th St Apt 4 Santa Monica, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$3,754	$3.75	25d	1	0.59mi
1251 14th St Santa Monica, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$3,598	$3.51	2d	3	0.60mi
1251 14th St Santa Monica, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$3,622	$3.54	6d	2	0.60mi
1007 Lincoln Blvd Santa Monica, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,395	$3.40	25d	1	0.61mi
1244 Euclid St Apt 7 Santa Monica, CA	1.0	1.0	799	$2,695	$3.37	8d	1	0.61mi
1044 9th St Unit 3 Santa Monica, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,995	$4.00	6d	1	0.61mi
1144 10th St #5 Santa Monica, CA	2.0	2.0	1011	$4,850	$4.80	11d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,250,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,250,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,250,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,250,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,250,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,250,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,250,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,250,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,250,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $3,250,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,250,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,250,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,250,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,250,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    price $3,250,000 1023-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1023 chars)

    Located just off Montana Avenue in one of Santa Monica's most desirable and supply-constrained residential corridors, 817 16th Street presents a rare opportunity to acquire a fully entitled boutique, architectural townhouse-style condominium project in a high-demand neighborhood. The project is comprised of six market-rate residences plus two affordable units, over subterranean parking for ten vehicles and a formally approved subdivision tract map. Designed by Breakform Design, the plans reflect a refined, contemporary architectural vision aligned with the expectations of today's luxury Westside buyer. With Planning Commission approvals secured and the property removed from the rental market via the Ellis Act, a developer can step in and pivot directly into construction documents and plan check. A substantial portion of the entitlement timeline has been completed, creating a streamlined path to market and a compelling opportunity to capitalize on strong end-user demand in a premier Montana-adjacent location.

16. 2026-04-02
    listed $3,750,000 Active 1023-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1023 chars)

    Located just off Montana Avenue in one of Santa Monica's most desirable and supply-constrained residential corridors, 817 16th Street presents a rare opportunity to acquire a fully entitled boutique, architectural townhouse-style condominium project in a high-demand neighborhood. The project is comprised of six market-rate residences plus two affordable units, over subterranean parking for ten vehicles and a formally approved subdivision tract map. Designed by Breakform Design, the plans reflect a refined, contemporary architectural vision aligned with the expectations of today's luxury Westside buyer. With Planning Commission approvals secured and the property removed from the rental market via the Ellis Act, a developer can step in and pivot directly into construction documents and plan check. A substantial portion of the entitlement timeline has been completed, creating a streamlined path to market and a compelling opportunity to capitalize on strong end-user demand in a premier Montana-adjacent location.

17. 2020-09-21
    listed Active
18. 2020-06-14
    historical Expired
19. 2020-04-14
    price
20. 2020-04-14
    listed Active
21. 2020-04-03
    historical Canceled
22. 2020-02-24
    listed Active
23. 2018-10-10
    soldstatus $2,525,000
24. 2018-10-10
    soldstatus $2,525,000
25. 2018-08-07
    historical
26. 2018-07-01
    listed $2,600,000
27. 2018-07-01
    listed $2,600,000
28. 2018-04-21
    status Pending
29. 2018-04-20
    historical
30. 2018-01-25
    listed Active
31. 2018-01-25
    historical Expired
32. 2018-01-25
    listed $2,750,000
33. 2013-09-09
    soldstatus $2,125,000 Closed
34. 2013-09-09
    soldstatus $2,125,000
35. 2013-08-23
    status Pending
36. 2013-08-01
    listed $1,795,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $35,728 · $2,977/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $35,728 · $2,977/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $353,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$182,051
• − Property taxes: −$35,728
• − Insurance: −$16,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$28,260
• − Management: −$28,260
• − Depreciation: −$94,545
• Taxable loss: −$31,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,641
• After-tax cash flow: $30,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Monica-Malibu Unified
• NCES district ID: 0635700
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $81,489
• Composite: 61.58/100
• National rank: #1535
• State rank: #123 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Monica

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #5878

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Monica, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 93,581
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,867
• Household income: $121,925
• Rent vs Own: 73.8% rent · 26.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2265.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 12% Asian 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.10%
• Current HPI: 310.2427
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+81.1% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $3,250,000 TheMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $3,750,000 TheMLS
• 2020-09-21 Listed — TheMLS
• 2020-06-14 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2020-04-14 Price Changed — TheMLS
• 2020-04-14 Listed — TheMLS
• 2020-04-03 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2020-02-24 Listed — TheMLS
• 2018-10-10 Sold (MLS) $2,525,000 SDMLS
• 2018-10-10 Sold (MLS) $2,525,000 TheMLS
• 2018-08-07 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2018-07-01 Listed $2,600,000 SDMLS
• 2018-07-01 Listed $2,600,000 TheMLS
• 2018-04-21 Pending — TheMLS
• 2018-04-20 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2018-01-25 Listed $2,750,000 SDMLS
• 2018-01-25 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2018-01-25 Listed — TheMLS
• 2013-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $2,125,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-09 Sold (MLS) $2,125,000 TheMLS
• 2013-08-23 Pending — TheMLS
• 2013-08-01 Listed $1,795,000 TheMLS

Property tax history

+18.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $35,728 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.