138 Jacob Ln · Lincoln, AL 35096

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2022 5,227 sqft lot Est $192k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home built in 2022 featuring a bright open-concept floor plan perfect for modern living. This home offers a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, creating an ideal setup for entertaining and everyday comfort. The kitchen features modern finishes, ample cabinet space, and a functional layout. Enjoy low maintenance living with newer construction, stylish finishes, and plenty of natural light throughout. Conveniently located with easy access to I-20, shopping, dining, and schools. Don't miss the opportunity to make this home yours!

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 2022
• Listed 30 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property has public road access; Lot size about 0.12 acres; Located in Meadowview Heights subdivision
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Connected sewer; Electric water heater; Internet availability unknown
• Home design: Existing construction; Siding vinyl exterior; Slab foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Porch; Decks (covered and open)

Interior

• Kitchen: Solid surface countertops; Eating area; Dishwasher (built-in), microwave (built-in), electric stove, self-cleaning oven, refrigerator; Some stainless appliances
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level; Additional bedrooms on main level; Walk-in closets
• Flooring: Hardwood laminate floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted and 9+ ft smooth ceilings; Recessed lighting; Some window treatments to remain
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry in a closet; Washer hookup and electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $98 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.2% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#230 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Talladega County (rural): math 15% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #75 of 129 in AL (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 20% / reading 48%, grade F, #311 of 627 statewide, top 50%, 853 students, 62% FRL); Lincoln High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 585 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 230 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 189 units permitted in Talladega County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Talladega County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $199k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,500 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.11%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,688
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
69 Greer St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,147 (-2%)	3mo	$197,000	$172	82
25 Greer St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,147 (-2%)	4mo	$193,500	$169	81
59 Greer St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,146 (-3%)	6mo	$192,000	$168	79
64 Jacob Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,118 (-5%)	3mo	$159,900	$143	77
94 Jackson Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,118 (-5%)	3mo	$159,900	$143	76
54 Trophy Loop	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+3%)	1mo	$199,649	$164	73
151 Drews Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,284 (+9%)	11mo	$186,000	$145	69
330 Timber Pass	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+14%)	1mo	$199,069	$149	62
344 Timber Pass	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,012 (-14%)	1mo	$181,793	$180	55
184 Buckhorn Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+13%)	7mo	$198,390	$149	53
134 Buckhorn Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,337 (+14%)	12mo	$217,730	$163	48
89 Highland View Dr	0.66mi	3/3.0	1,292 (+10%)	10mo	$189,000	$146	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $29,677
• Equity at exit: $89,027

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $97,320
• Equity at exit: $136,851

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35096

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $428/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,471

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $154	+0% $98	+5% $42	+10% $-253
Rent	-10% $-28	-5% $35	+0% $98	+5% $161	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $198	-0.5pp $149	base $98	+0.5pp $46	+1.0pp $-6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
67 Wilson Way Lincoln, AL	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,595	$1.09	45d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
19. 2026-05-22
    listed $199,000 Active
20. 2023-03-06
    soldstatus $125,000
21. 2022-02-07
    soldstatus $156,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $428 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $816 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$388/yr (+$32/mo · 90.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$428
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,531
• − Management: −$1,531
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,281
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$548
• After-tax cash flow: $1,722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Talladega County
• NCES district ID: 0103180
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,715
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7650
• State rank: #75 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #17221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, AL
• City population: 9,201
• Population (ZIP): 9,201

Population outlook (Talladega County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,905 people
• By 2030: 77,160 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 72,937 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 68,279 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 57,884 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 47,220 · -40.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 19% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Vietnamese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Talladega

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.9% · R 66.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.3pp toward R · 2008: -18.5pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+25.5 2016: R+25.6 2012: R+16.0 2008: R+18.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.96%
• Current HPI: 255.9195
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+27.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $199,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $156,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $428 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.