642 Cedar Ridge Ln · Mechanicsburg, PA 17055

$199,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,576 sqft · Townhouse public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1979 4,356 sqft lot Est $279k · 28% under $110/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

$35,000 PRICE REDUCTIION FROM ORIGINAL PRICE! [SEE AGENT REMARKS FOR DETAILS]. EXCEPTIONAL VALUE FOR THIS SQUARE FOOTAGE WITH 2 1/2 BATHS AND LARGE PRIVATE BACKYARD IN MECHANICSBURG AREA . VIEW 360 DEGREE TOUR OF INSIDE AND OUTSIDE OF HOME BY CLICKING ON SMALL SQUARE BOX ICON WITH CAMERA IN THE MIDDLE IN TOP LEFT. .. .. .. . SPACIOUS 1576 SQUARE FOOT END UNIT 3 BEDROOM 2 1/2 BATH TOWNHOME IN POPULAR CEDAR RIDGE DEVELOPMENT, PRIME MECHANICSBURG LOCATION. LARGE SIDE YARD . WHY MOW THE GRASS WHEN YOU CAN RELAX WITH YOUR VIEW OF THE WOODED AREA BEHIND FROM EITHER YOUR REAR 1ST FLOOR COVERED PATIO OR 2ND FLOOR DECK OFF OF MAIN BEDROOM. .. .. FIRST FLOOR GREAT ROOM WITH 20 FOOT+ CEILINGS. FIREPLACE WITH MASONRY SURROUND , SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS. LAUNDRY ROOM OFF OF KITCHEN. WALK IN CLOSET OFF OF MAIN BEDROOM. [NOTE THAT 1ST AND 2ND FLOOR PLANS IN CEDAR RIDGE TOWNHOMES ARE THE SAME BUT SOME COUNT THE OPEN SPACE ABOVE THE GREAT ROOM AS FINISHED SQUARE FOOTAGE AND ARE LISTED AS 1800+ SQUARE FEET]. HOA FEE INCLUDES SNOW PLOWING , STREET MAINTENANCE AND LAWN CARE

Key facts

• $110 HOA
• Built 1979
• Listed 34 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-270/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.7% in Mechanicsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#372 in PA, #3,259 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Mechanicsburg Area SD (suburban): math 38% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #175 of 539 in PA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mechanicsburg Ms (math 21% / reading 60%, grade F, #248 of 512 statewide, top 50%, 1,047 students, 39% FRL); Mechanicsburg Area Shs (math 72% / reading 24%, grade D, #153 of 437 statewide, top 37%, 1,377 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,966 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $278,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
706 Cedar Ridge Ln	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,576 (0%)	7mo	$220,000	$140	92
339 Melbourne Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,591 (+1%)	5mo	$290,500	$183	71
327 Melbourne Ln	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,591 (+1%)	2mo	$285,000	$179	71
347 Stonehedge Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,540 (-2%)	5mo	$280,000	$182	69
5400-G Oxford Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,632 (+4%)	6mo	$230,000	$141	68
528 Brighton Pl	0.34mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,668 (+6%)	5mo	$250,000	$150	65
343 Melbourne Ln	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,650 (+5%)	4mo	$265,000	$161	65
216 Melbourne Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,570 (-0%)	5mo	$294,900	$188	64
484 Brighton Pl	0.34mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,416 (-10%)	5mo	$276,000	$195	58
519 Lexington Ave	0.33mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,368 (-13%)	1mo	$233,000	$170	57
356 Stonehedge Ln	0.70mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,496 (-5%)	5mo	$235,000	$157	50
401 Stonehedge Ln	0.63mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,408 (-11%)	4mo	$249,900	$177	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-35,796
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-40,919
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17055

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,880 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,190/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$110
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,908

Max offer price $195,924

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $91	-5% $34	+0% $-23	+5% $-79	+10% $-136
Rent	-10% $-171	-5% $-97	+0% $-23	+5% $52	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $28	base $-23	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
613 Geneva Dr Unit 615A12 Mechanicsburg, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,320	$1.20	45d	1	0.34mi
498 Stonehedge Ln Mechanicsburg, PA	2.0	1.5–2.5	1055	$1,832	$1.74	15d	2	0.44mi
5412 Oxford Dr Mechanicsburg, PA	2.0	2.5	1223	$1,795	$1.47	45d	1	0.50mi
5349 Oxford Cir Mechanicsburg, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	894	$2,135	$2.39	15d	26	0.51mi
363 Stonehedge Ln Mechanicsburg, PA	2.0	2.5	1408	$1,625	$1.15	15d	1	0.57mi
1041 S Market St Mechanicsburg, PA	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,745	$1.55	15d	11	1.40mi
3112 Detweiler Ln Mechanicsburg, PA	2.0	2.5	1775	$2,050	$1.15	15d	1	1.49mi
4815 E Trindle Rd Unit 2 Mechanicsburg, PA	2.0	1.5	1240	$1,750	$1.41	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $110 · $1,320/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   price $199,900
3. 2026-03-06
   listed $224,900 Active
4. 2023-08-11
   soldstatus $206,000 Closed 1088-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

   $35,000 PRICE REDUCTIION FROM ORIGINAL PRICE! [SEE AGENT REMARKS FOR DETAILS]. EXCEPTIONAL VALUE FOR THIS SQUARE FOOTAGE WITH 2 1/2 BATHS AND LARGE PRIVATE BACKYARD IN MECHANICSBURG AREA . VIEW 360 DEGREE TOUR OF INSIDE AND OUTSIDE OF HOME BY CLICKING ON SMALL SQUARE BOX ICON WITH CAMERA IN THE MIDDLE IN TOP LEFT. .. .. .. . SPACIOUS 1576 SQUARE FOOT END UNIT 3 BEDROOM 2 1/2 BATH TOWNHOME IN POPULAR CEDAR RIDGE DEVELOPMENT, PRIME MECHANICSBURG LOCATION. LARGE SIDE YARD . WHY MOW THE GRASS WHEN YOU CAN RELAX WITH YOUR VIEW OF THE WOODED AREA BEHIND FROM EITHER YOUR REAR 1ST FLOOR COVERED PATIO OR 2ND FLOOR DECK OFF OF MAIN BEDROOM. .. .. FIRST FLOOR GREAT ROOM WITH 20 FOOT+ CEILINGS. FIREPLACE WITH MASONRY SURROUND , SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS. LAUNDRY ROOM OFF OF KITCHEN. WALK IN CLOSET OFF OF MAIN BEDROOM. [NOTE THAT 1ST AND 2ND FLOOR PLANS IN CEDAR RIDGE TOWNHOMES ARE THE SAME BUT SOME COUNT THE OPEN SPACE ABOVE THE GREAT ROOM AS FINISHED SQUARE FOOTAGE AND ARE LISTED AS 1800+ SQUARE FEET]. HOA FEE INCLUDES SNOW PLOWING , STREET MAINTENANCE AND LAWN CARE

5. 2023-08-07
   soldstatus $206,000
6. 2023-06-30
   status Pending 1088-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

   $35,000 PRICE REDUCTIION FROM ORIGINAL PRICE! [SEE AGENT REMARKS FOR DETAILS]. EXCEPTIONAL VALUE FOR THIS SQUARE FOOTAGE WITH 2 1/2 BATHS AND LARGE PRIVATE BACKYARD IN MECHANICSBURG AREA . VIEW 360 DEGREE TOUR OF INSIDE AND OUTSIDE OF HOME BY CLICKING ON SMALL SQUARE BOX ICON WITH CAMERA IN THE MIDDLE IN TOP LEFT. .. .. .. . SPACIOUS 1576 SQUARE FOOT END UNIT 3 BEDROOM 2 1/2 BATH TOWNHOME IN POPULAR CEDAR RIDGE DEVELOPMENT, PRIME MECHANICSBURG LOCATION. LARGE SIDE YARD . WHY MOW THE GRASS WHEN YOU CAN RELAX WITH YOUR VIEW OF THE WOODED AREA BEHIND FROM EITHER YOUR REAR 1ST FLOOR COVERED PATIO OR 2ND FLOOR DECK OFF OF MAIN BEDROOM. .. .. FIRST FLOOR GREAT ROOM WITH 20 FOOT+ CEILINGS. FIREPLACE WITH MASONRY SURROUND , SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS. LAUNDRY ROOM OFF OF KITCHEN. WALK IN CLOSET OFF OF MAIN BEDROOM. [NOTE THAT 1ST AND 2ND FLOOR PLANS IN CEDAR RIDGE TOWNHOMES ARE THE SAME BUT SOME COUNT THE OPEN SPACE ABOVE THE GREAT ROOM AS FINISHED SQUARE FOOTAGE AND ARE LISTED AS 1800+ SQUARE FEET]. HOA FEE INCLUDES SNOW PLOWING , STREET MAINTENANCE AND LAWN CARE

7. 2023-06-18
   price $200,000 1088-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

   $35,000 PRICE REDUCTIION FROM ORIGINAL PRICE! [SEE AGENT REMARKS FOR DETAILS]. EXCEPTIONAL VALUE FOR THIS SQUARE FOOTAGE WITH 2 1/2 BATHS AND LARGE PRIVATE BACKYARD IN MECHANICSBURG AREA . VIEW 360 DEGREE TOUR OF INSIDE AND OUTSIDE OF HOME BY CLICKING ON SMALL SQUARE BOX ICON WITH CAMERA IN THE MIDDLE IN TOP LEFT. .. .. .. . SPACIOUS 1576 SQUARE FOOT END UNIT 3 BEDROOM 2 1/2 BATH TOWNHOME IN POPULAR CEDAR RIDGE DEVELOPMENT, PRIME MECHANICSBURG LOCATION. LARGE SIDE YARD . WHY MOW THE GRASS WHEN YOU CAN RELAX WITH YOUR VIEW OF THE WOODED AREA BEHIND FROM EITHER YOUR REAR 1ST FLOOR COVERED PATIO OR 2ND FLOOR DECK OFF OF MAIN BEDROOM. .. .. FIRST FLOOR GREAT ROOM WITH 20 FOOT+ CEILINGS. FIREPLACE WITH MASONRY SURROUND , SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS. LAUNDRY ROOM OFF OF KITCHEN. WALK IN CLOSET OFF OF MAIN BEDROOM. [NOTE THAT 1ST AND 2ND FLOOR PLANS IN CEDAR RIDGE TOWNHOMES ARE THE SAME BUT SOME COUNT THE OPEN SPACE ABOVE THE GREAT ROOM AS FINISHED SQUARE FOOTAGE AND ARE LISTED AS 1800+ SQUARE FEET]. HOA FEE INCLUDES SNOW PLOWING , STREET MAINTENANCE AND LAWN CARE

8. 2023-05-31
   price $215,000 1088-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

   $35,000 PRICE REDUCTIION FROM ORIGINAL PRICE! [SEE AGENT REMARKS FOR DETAILS]. EXCEPTIONAL VALUE FOR THIS SQUARE FOOTAGE WITH 2 1/2 BATHS AND LARGE PRIVATE BACKYARD IN MECHANICSBURG AREA . VIEW 360 DEGREE TOUR OF INSIDE AND OUTSIDE OF HOME BY CLICKING ON SMALL SQUARE BOX ICON WITH CAMERA IN THE MIDDLE IN TOP LEFT. .. .. .. . SPACIOUS 1576 SQUARE FOOT END UNIT 3 BEDROOM 2 1/2 BATH TOWNHOME IN POPULAR CEDAR RIDGE DEVELOPMENT, PRIME MECHANICSBURG LOCATION. LARGE SIDE YARD . WHY MOW THE GRASS WHEN YOU CAN RELAX WITH YOUR VIEW OF THE WOODED AREA BEHIND FROM EITHER YOUR REAR 1ST FLOOR COVERED PATIO OR 2ND FLOOR DECK OFF OF MAIN BEDROOM. .. .. FIRST FLOOR GREAT ROOM WITH 20 FOOT+ CEILINGS. FIREPLACE WITH MASONRY SURROUND , SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS. LAUNDRY ROOM OFF OF KITCHEN. WALK IN CLOSET OFF OF MAIN BEDROOM. [NOTE THAT 1ST AND 2ND FLOOR PLANS IN CEDAR RIDGE TOWNHOMES ARE THE SAME BUT SOME COUNT THE OPEN SPACE ABOVE THE GREAT ROOM AS FINISHED SQUARE FOOTAGE AND ARE LISTED AS 1800+ SQUARE FEET]. HOA FEE INCLUDES SNOW PLOWING , STREET MAINTENANCE AND LAWN CARE

9. 2023-05-07
   listed $234,900 Active 1088-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

   $35,000 PRICE REDUCTIION FROM ORIGINAL PRICE! [SEE AGENT REMARKS FOR DETAILS]. EXCEPTIONAL VALUE FOR THIS SQUARE FOOTAGE WITH 2 1/2 BATHS AND LARGE PRIVATE BACKYARD IN MECHANICSBURG AREA . VIEW 360 DEGREE TOUR OF INSIDE AND OUTSIDE OF HOME BY CLICKING ON SMALL SQUARE BOX ICON WITH CAMERA IN THE MIDDLE IN TOP LEFT. .. .. .. . SPACIOUS 1576 SQUARE FOOT END UNIT 3 BEDROOM 2 1/2 BATH TOWNHOME IN POPULAR CEDAR RIDGE DEVELOPMENT, PRIME MECHANICSBURG LOCATION. LARGE SIDE YARD . WHY MOW THE GRASS WHEN YOU CAN RELAX WITH YOUR VIEW OF THE WOODED AREA BEHIND FROM EITHER YOUR REAR 1ST FLOOR COVERED PATIO OR 2ND FLOOR DECK OFF OF MAIN BEDROOM. .. .. FIRST FLOOR GREAT ROOM WITH 20 FOOT+ CEILINGS. FIREPLACE WITH MASONRY SURROUND , SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS. LAUNDRY ROOM OFF OF KITCHEN. WALK IN CLOSET OFF OF MAIN BEDROOM. [NOTE THAT 1ST AND 2ND FLOOR PLANS IN CEDAR RIDGE TOWNHOMES ARE THE SAME BUT SOME COUNT THE OPEN SPACE ABOVE THE GREAT ROOM AS FINISHED SQUARE FOOTAGE AND ARE LISTED AS 1800+ SQUARE FEET]. HOA FEE INCLUDES SNOW PLOWING , STREET MAINTENANCE AND LAWN CARE

10. 2023-05-02
    historical $234,900 1088-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

    $35,000 PRICE REDUCTIION FROM ORIGINAL PRICE! [SEE AGENT REMARKS FOR DETAILS]. EXCEPTIONAL VALUE FOR THIS SQUARE FOOTAGE WITH 2 1/2 BATHS AND LARGE PRIVATE BACKYARD IN MECHANICSBURG AREA . VIEW 360 DEGREE TOUR OF INSIDE AND OUTSIDE OF HOME BY CLICKING ON SMALL SQUARE BOX ICON WITH CAMERA IN THE MIDDLE IN TOP LEFT. .. .. .. . SPACIOUS 1576 SQUARE FOOT END UNIT 3 BEDROOM 2 1/2 BATH TOWNHOME IN POPULAR CEDAR RIDGE DEVELOPMENT, PRIME MECHANICSBURG LOCATION. LARGE SIDE YARD . WHY MOW THE GRASS WHEN YOU CAN RELAX WITH YOUR VIEW OF THE WOODED AREA BEHIND FROM EITHER YOUR REAR 1ST FLOOR COVERED PATIO OR 2ND FLOOR DECK OFF OF MAIN BEDROOM. .. .. FIRST FLOOR GREAT ROOM WITH 20 FOOT+ CEILINGS. FIREPLACE WITH MASONRY SURROUND , SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS. LAUNDRY ROOM OFF OF KITCHEN. WALK IN CLOSET OFF OF MAIN BEDROOM. [NOTE THAT 1ST AND 2ND FLOOR PLANS IN CEDAR RIDGE TOWNHOMES ARE THE SAME BUT SOME COUNT THE OPEN SPACE ABOVE THE GREAT ROOM AS FINISHED SQUARE FOOTAGE AND ARE LISTED AS 1800+ SQUARE FEET]. HOA FEE INCLUDES SNOW PLOWING , STREET MAINTENANCE AND LAWN CARE

11. 2016-12-15
    soldstatus $129,900
12. 2016-12-12
    soldstatus $129,900 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Looking for a townhome that actually has a yard you can use!? Want something that's easily accessible, affordable, and move-in-ready? If you're searching for all this, plus an updated kitchen, newer roof and heat pump, two private covered off street parking spaces, and an open flowing layout, then this cozy end unit could be for you. From the freedom of low maintenance townhome living, to the modern and unique flare that this neighborhood has, you're sure to love all this little charmer has to offer!

13. 2016-06-22
    listed $129,900 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Looking for a townhome that actually has a yard you can use!? Want something that's easily accessible, affordable, and move-in-ready? If you're searching for all this, plus an updated kitchen, newer roof and heat pump, two private covered off street parking spaces, and an open flowing layout, then this cozy end unit could be for you. From the freedom of low maintenance townhome living, to the modern and unique flare that this neighborhood has, you're sure to love all this little charmer has to offer!

14. 2005-12-15
    soldstatus $118,900
15. 2005-12-09
    soldstatus $118,900
16. 2005-11-09
    listed $118,900
17. 1980-02-01
    soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,190 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,190 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,190
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − HOA: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,575
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$858
• After-tax cash flow: $588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mechanicsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215030
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $60,986
• Composite: 42.92/100
• National rank: #3118
• State rank: #175 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mechanicsburg

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #3259

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• City population: 85,577
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 42,006
• Household income: $99,077
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 888.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.92%
• Current HPI: 254.7596
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.89%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+250.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $224,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-08-11 Sold (MLS) $206,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $206,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-18 Price Changed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-31 Price Changed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-07 Listed $234,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-02 Coming Soon $234,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $129,900 Public Records
• 2016-12-12 Sold (MLS) $129,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-06-22 Listed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $118,900 Public Records
• 2005-12-09 Sold (MLS) $118,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-11-09 Listed $118,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1980-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,190 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.