3925 E Narrowleaf Dr · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$525,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2015 5,312 sqft lot Est $549k · at est. $135/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the highly desirable Bridges at Gilbert community, this beautifully maintained single-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,800 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Inside, you'll love the bright and open floor plan, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The main living areas feature stylish wood-planked tile flooring, while the bedrooms offer the comfort of plush carpet. The spacious kitchen overlooks the heart of the home and flows seamlessly into the living area, making it easy to stay connected whether hosting guests or enjoying a quiet night in. The private primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a barn door entry into the bathroom, dua

Key facts

• 5,312 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2015

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee of $405; Community amenities include a lake, playground, and biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction
• Exterior features: Desert front yard; Gravel/stone backyard; Block fencing; Tile roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Pantry; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double vanity; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Pantry; Bidet; Full bath in primary bedroom; Laminate counters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-876 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $370k (29.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (42.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (42.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Higley Unified School District (4248) (suburban): math 56% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #21 of 249 in AZ (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bridges Elementary School (math 80% / reading 79%, grade A, #13 of 1,109 statewide, top 1%, 759 students, 7% FRL); Sossaman Middle School (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #4 of 218 statewide, top 1%, 1,043 students, 13% FRL); Higley High School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade D, #46 of 381 statewide, top 12%, 2,137 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($509k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,495 (42.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.15%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $549,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3843 E Narrowleaf Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,800 (0%)	4mo	$540,000	$300	88
3927 E Blue Spruce Ln	0.11mi	4/3.0	1,940 (+8%)	5mo	$475,000	$245	78
3918 E Narrowleaf Dr	0.03mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,940 (+8%)	3mo	$502,000	$259	78
3911 E Sourwood Dr	0.05mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,940 (+8%)	4mo	$475,000	$245	76
3716 E Lodgepole Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,677 (-7%)	3mo	$521,700	$311	65
5338 S Barley Way	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (-11%)	1mo	$490,000	$305	62
3691 E Ficus Way	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,677 (-7%)	10mo	$580,000	$346	58
22609 S 174th Pl	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,920 (+7%)	12mo	$875,000	$456	49
4239 E Azalea Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (-11%)	4mo	$575,000	$358	45
5420 S Mariposa Dr	0.40mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,051 (+14%)	10mo	$565,000	$275	45
3489 E Azalea Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,675 (-7%)	7mo	$518,000	$309	43
3628 E Ficus Way	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,051 (+14%)	9mo	$555,000	$271	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $176,533
• Equity at exit: $411,889

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.83×
• Total profit: $562,792
• Equity at exit: $830,347

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,005 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,720/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$631
• Net cashflow: $-876

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,114

Max offer price $370,197

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-579	-5% $-728	+0% $-876	+5% $-1,025	+10% $-1,173
Rent	-10% $-1,114	-5% $-995	+0% $-876	+5% $-758	+10% $-639
Rate	-1.0pp $-612	-0.5pp $-743	base $-876	+0.5pp $-1,012	+1.0pp $-1,151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5434 S Forest Ave Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2341	$2,900	$1.24	20d	1	0.11mi
3710 E Lodgepole Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1818	$2,650	$1.46	14d	1	0.26mi
3636 E Lodgepole Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1818	$3,075	$1.69	18d	1	0.35mi
4279 E Sourwood Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2156	$10,600	$4.92	0d	1	0.46mi
5149 S Moccasin Trl Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1675	$2,575	$1.54	0d	1	0.65mi
3486 E Anika Ct Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1749	$2,600	$1.49	45d	1	0.92mi
3830 E Thornton Ave Unit 1546326P Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2292	$3,902	$1.70	18d	1	0.95mi
3432 E Strawberry Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2080	$3,695	$1.78	3d	1	0.96mi
3868 E Palmer St Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1899	$2,000	$1.05	45d	1	1.07mi
6334 S Blake St Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,100	$1.48	45d	1	1.10mi
3462 E Powell Way Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,295	$1.38	26d	1	1.11mi
3808 E Flower Ct Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1628	$2,095	$1.29	7d	1	1.16mi
3441 E Baranca Ct Gilbert, AZ	5.0	2.0	1903	$2,855	$1.50	3d	1	1.18mi
3329 E Powell Ct Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,345	$1.58	16d	1	1.22mi
2983 E Ironside Ln Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2450	$2,450	$1.00	45d	1	1.26mi
4231 E Marshall Ave Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2209	$2,700	$1.22	5d	1	1.27mi
2954 E Coconino Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2180	$2,590	$1.19	4d	1	1.29mi
3570 E Meadowview Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2536	$3,200	$1.26	4d	1	1.34mi
3725 E Meadowview Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,750	$1.96	26d	1	1.38mi
2965 E Blue Ridge Way Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1651	$2,400	$1.45	0d	1	1.43mi
2927 E Mead Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1651	$2,250	$1.36	20d	1	1.44mi
4374 S Woodshed Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,249	$1.30	21d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $525,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $525,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $525,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $525,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $525,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $525,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $525,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $525,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $525,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $525,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $525,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $525,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $525,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $525,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $525,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,720 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,465 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,745/yr (+$145/mo · 101.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,059
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$1,720
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,885
• − Management: −$2,885
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$20,356
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,885
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Higley Unified School District (4248)
• NCES district ID: 0403780
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $82,526
• Composite: 51.7/100
• National rank: #1688
• State rank: #21 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $525,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,720 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.