958 Boles Rd · Gilmer, TX 75645

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 133 Days on market

Built 2014 Good condition 1.88 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

CUTE 3/2 IN UNION GROVE ISD. BUILT IN 2014 AND SITS ON 1.88 ACRES. OPEN FLOORPLAN, NICE SIZE ROOMS, GREAT COLORS, CENTRAL HEAT AND AC. BEAUTIFUL TREES, STORAGE SHED, GREAT LOCATION. CALL FOR ANAPPOINTMENT.

Key facts

• 1.88 acres
• Open floorplan
• Great location

Tags

• 1.88 ACRES
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• STORAGE SHED
• GREAT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $411 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.8% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Union Grove ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #117 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.10%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $94,152
• Equity at exit: $112,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.34×
• Total profit: $256,618
• Equity at exit: $242,653

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75645

• Home prices YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $755/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $975

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $481	-5% $446	+0% $411	+5% $375	+10% $340
Rent	-10% $293	-5% $352	+0% $411	+5% $470	+10% $529
Rate	-1.0pp $474	-0.5pp $443	base $411	+0.5pp $378	+1.0pp $345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   CUTE 3/2 IN UNION GROVE ISD. BUILT IN 2014 AND SITS ON 1.88 ACRES. OPEN FLOORPLAN, NICE SIZE ROOMS, GREAT COLORS, CENTRAL HEAT AND AC. BEAUTIFUL TREES, STORAGE SHED, GREAT LOCATION. CALL FOR ANAPPOINTMENT.

2. 2026-03-27
   price $124,900 206-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   CUTE 3/2 IN UNION GROVE ISD. BUILT IN 2014 AND SITS ON 1.88 ACRES. OPEN FLOORPLAN, NICE SIZE ROOMS, GREAT COLORS, CENTRAL HEAT AND AC. BEAUTIFUL TREES, STORAGE SHED, GREAT LOCATION. CALL FOR ANAPPOINTMENT.

3. 2026-03-27
   price $124,900 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   CUTE 3/2 IN UNION GROVE ISD. BUILT IN 2014 AND SITS ON 1.88 ACRES. OPEN FLOORPLAN, NICE SIZE ROOMS, GREAT COLORS, CENTRAL HEAT AND AC. BEAUTIFUL TREES, STORAGE SHED, GREAT LOCATION. CALL FOR ANAPPOINTMENT.

4. 2026-01-26
   status Active 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   CUTE 3/2 IN UNION GROVE ISD. BUILT IN 2014 AND SITS ON 1.88 ACRES. OPEN FLOORPLAN, NICE SIZE ROOMS, GREAT COLORS, CENTRAL HEAT AND AC. BEAUTIFUL TREES, STORAGE SHED, GREAT LOCATION. CALL FOR ANAPPOINTMENT.

5. 2026-01-19
   status Pending 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   CUTE 3/2 IN UNION GROVE ISD. BUILT IN 2014 AND SITS ON 1.88 ACRES. OPEN FLOORPLAN, NICE SIZE ROOMS, GREAT COLORS, CENTRAL HEAT AND AC. BEAUTIFUL TREES, STORAGE SHED, GREAT LOCATION. CALL FOR ANAPPOINTMENT.

6. 2026-01-14
   listed $129,900 Active 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   CUTE 3/2 IN UNION GROVE ISD. BUILT IN 2014 AND SITS ON 1.88 ACRES. OPEN FLOORPLAN, NICE SIZE ROOMS, GREAT COLORS, CENTRAL HEAT AND AC. BEAUTIFUL TREES, STORAGE SHED, GREAT LOCATION. CALL FOR ANAPPOINTMENT.

7. 2026-01-13
   listed $129,900 Active 206-char remark

   Show marketing remark (206 chars)

   CUTE 3/2 IN UNION GROVE ISD. BUILT IN 2014 AND SITS ON 1.88 ACRES. OPEN FLOORPLAN, NICE SIZE ROOMS, GREAT COLORS, CENTRAL HEAT AND AC. BEAUTIFUL TREES, STORAGE SHED, GREAT LOCATION. CALL FOR AN APPOINTMENT.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $755 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,286 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,531/yr (+$128/mo · 202.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,935
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$755
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $3,056
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$733
• After-tax cash flow: $4,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good exterior, interior, and landscaping. Upgrades in painting, flooring, kitchen appliances, and bathrooms would significantly increase its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Updating the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can enhance the overall appeal and functionality of the home.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the curb appeal and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Updating the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can enhance the overall appeal and functionality of the home. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union Grove ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843530
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,597
• Composite: 46.4/100
• National rank: #2458
• State rank: #117 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,511

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 35.93%
• Current HPI: 319.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $124,900 LAAR
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $124,900 GTAR
• 2026-01-26 Relisted — GTAR
• 2026-01-19 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-01-14 Listed $129,900 GTAR
• 2026-01-13 Listed $129,900 LAAR

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $755 · -5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.