1021 Orchard Ave · Aurora, OH 44202

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,099 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $202k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Single-family home perfect for investment needs work.

Key facts

• Built 1986
• Listed 14 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $623 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 2.5% in Aurora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#258 in OH, #4,104 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Aurora City (suburban): math 79% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #35 of 656 in OH (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 196 units permitted in Portage County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $120k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.24%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,216
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1081 Lake Ave	0.20mi	2/1.0	1,106 (+1%)	8mo	$120,000	$108	83
961 Lloyd Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (-2%)	12mo	$200,000	$185	76
944 East Blvd	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,097 (-0%)	14mo	$70,000	$64	71
930 Lloyd Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,062 (-3%)	16mo	$159,000	$150	68
1170 Moneta Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,160 (+6%)	10mo	$221,000	$191	64
852 Pennsylvania St	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,150 (+5%)	20mo	$229,500	$200	58
964 Orchard Ave	0.11mi	2/2.0	988 (-10%)	21mo	$165,000	$167	57
1171 Bryce Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0	952 (-13%)	8mo	$175,000	$184	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $20,272
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $68,938
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44202

• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,249/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,097

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $691	-5% $657	+0% $623	+5% $589	+10% $555
Rent	-10% $474	-5% $548	+0% $623	+5% $697	+10% $772
Rate	-1.0pp $683	-0.5pp $653	base $623	+0.5pp $592	+1.0pp $560

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1065 Moneta Ave Aurora, OH	3.0	1.0	936	$1,600	$1.71	2d	1	0.09mi
7340 Ferris ST Aurora, OH	3.0	1.0–3.0	1138	$2,535	$2.23	2d	1	0.39mi
10188 Anchorage Cv Aurora, OH	3.0	1.5	1268	$2,850	$2.25	4d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $120,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   remarks 53-char remark
9. 2026-06-02
   listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,249 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,249 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,626
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,249
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,944
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,426
• After-tax cash flow: $6,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aurora City
• NCES district ID: 3904917
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 84% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,791
• Composite: 71.93/100
• National rank: #213
• State rank: #35 of 656 in OH

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #4104

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aurora, OH
• County: Portage · 165,699 people
• City population: 22,857
• Metro: Akron, OH
• Population (ZIP): 22,857
• Household income: $116,556
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 4.9

Population outlook (Portage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 166,109 people
• By 2030: 167,752 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 168,640 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 167,469 · +0.8%
• By 2075: 170,131 · +2.4%
• By 2100: 167,958 · +1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Portage

• 2024 margin: R (+15.5) · D 41.8% · R 57.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: 9.0pp · 2024: -15.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.5 2020: R+12.5 2016: R+10.2 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+9.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.23%
• Current HPI: 186.4919
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+158.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $120,000 FSBO.com
• 1988-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,249 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.