345 SW 16th St · Paris, TX 75460

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

7,841 sqft lot Est $97k · 39% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated and charming home featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, 1 car gargae. This cozy yet functional layout offers comfortable living with modern upgrades throughout. New foundation, New AC system, Fresh interior, exterior paint, New flooring throughout, Updated cabinets . New garage door, New garage system, New Stove, Dishwasher, And more. The home has been thoughtfully remodeled, offering peace of mind and a fresh, modern feel. This cute home is perfect for first-time buyers, or anyone looking for a move-in ready property.

Key facts

• Updated cabinets
• New foundation
• Fresh interior

Tags

• NEW FOUNDATION
• NEW AC SYSTEM
• FRESH INTERIOR
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 garage space)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Lot is approximately 0.18 acres; Subdivision: SHADY OAKS; Directions: From Lamar Ave. to Bonham St, left on 15th St, right on W Austin, left on 16th SW — property on the left

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Bedroom sizes include 14 x 10, 14 x 10, and 10 x 10
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Kitchen island; One living area; Total of 4 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($377/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.6% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#984 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Paris ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #521 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Givens Early Childhood Center (103 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 70% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,034 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.00%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $96,832
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1403 W Austin St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-3%)	2mo	$170,000	$161	84
320 16th St SW	0.03mi	3/1.0	952 (-12%)	8mo	$75,000	$79	72
1837 W Houston St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (+3%)	3mo	$55,000	$49	72
560 26th St SW	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,072 (-2%)	0mo	$94,900	$89	62
2225 Bonham St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,196 (+10%)	2mo	$49,000	$41	60
2275 Graham St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,172 (+8%)	2mo	$157,000	$134	59
227 24th St NW	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,044 (-4%)	3mo	$29,900	$29	56
305 SW 7th St SW	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,036 (-5%)	11mo	$48,000	$46	52
255 SW 7th St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,222 (+12%)	4mo	$129,900	$106	46
525 19th St NW	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	950 (-13%)	1mo	$130,000	$137	42
2524 Graham	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (+6%)	10mo	$105,000	$91	37
715 W Kaufman St	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,243 (+14%)	10mo	$35,000	$28	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-19,902
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-14,864
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75460

• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,168/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,091

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
132 7th St SW Paris, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	43d	1	0.50mi
635 7th St SW Paris, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	903	$1,250	$1.38	43d	16	0.74mi
649 E Price St Paris, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-04-02
   listed $135,000 Active
9. 2025-09-10
   soldstatus
10. 2025-08-05
    soldstatus
11. 2019-07-02
    soldstatus
12. 2007-01-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,168 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,302/yr (+$109/mo · 111.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,168
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,085
• − Management: −$1,085
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,939
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$465
• After-tax cash flow: $842/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834290
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,515
• Composite: 29.83/100
• National rank: #6419
• State rank: #521 of 826 in TX

Livability — Paris

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #984
• US rank: #17535

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, TX
• County: Lamar County · 23,426 people
• City population: 23,426
• Metro: Paris, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,426
• Household income: $46,473
• Rent vs Own: 49.7% rent · 50.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1355.0

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,319 people
• By 2030: 47,160 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 44,621 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 42,024 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 36,577 · -24.3%
• By 2100: 30,580 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.2% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+59.2 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.50%
• Current HPI: 145.3511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Paris, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-01-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,168 · +21.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.