6409 Oak Valley Dr · Shreveport, LA 71119

$80,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 922 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 217 Days on market

Built 1985 7,362 sqft lot $87/sqft · 34% below area Est $121k · 34% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special with incredible potential, or great for first time home buyers!! This 3 Bedroom 1 bath home is waiting for you! Don't miss out on this chance to invest in a property with so much to offer! No repairs will be made by the seller.

Key facts

• 7,362 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($975 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 5.6% in Shreveport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#270 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.87%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,817
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -33.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $2,333
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $21,730
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71119

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $927/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $671

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $285	-5% $263	+0% $240	+5% $218	+10% $195
Rent	-10% $163	-5% $202	+0% $240	+5% $279	+10% $317
Rate	-1.0pp $280	-0.5pp $261	base $240	+0.5pp $219	+1.0pp $198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6308 Frondosa Dr Shreveport, LA	3.0	1.0	974	$975	$1.00	45d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 217 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 214 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 213 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 212 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 211 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 209 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 208 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 206 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 205 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 204 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 203 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 200 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 199 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 198 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 197 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 196 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 195 DOM
18. 2026-01-01
    price $80,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Investor special with incredible potential, or great for first time home buyers!! This 3 Bedroom 1 bath home is waiting for you! Don't miss out on this chance to invest in a property with so much to offer! No repairs will be made by the seller.

19. 2025-12-22
    price $81,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Investor special with incredible potential, or great for first time home buyers!! This 3 Bedroom 1 bath home is waiting for you! Don't miss out on this chance to invest in a property with so much to offer! No repairs will be made by the seller.

20. 2025-11-16
    listed $85,000 Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Investor special with incredible potential, or great for first time home buyers!! This 3 Bedroom 1 bath home is waiting for you! Don't miss out on this chance to invest in a property with so much to offer! No repairs will be made by the seller.

21. 2025-11-08
    historical
22. 2025-07-10
    price $90,000
23. 2024-12-10
    price $100,000
24. 2024-11-08
    listed $115,000 Active
25. 2024-10-22
    listed $100,000 Active
26. 2024-10-22
    historical
27. 1985-03-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $927 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $927 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$927
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$936
• − Management: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $1,693
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$406
• After-tax cash flow: $2,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $39,227
• Composite: 22.23/100
• National rank: #8148
• State rank: #53 of 98 in LA

Livability — Shreveport

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #19730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shreveport, LA
• City population: 164,123
• Population (ZIP): 10,364

Population outlook (Caddo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 243,190 people
• By 2030: 237,231 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 222,502 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 206,516 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 165,706 · -31.9%
• By 2100: 122,262 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 34% Asian 3% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caddo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.6% · R 47.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: 4.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.6 2020: D+6.8 2016: D+4.2 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.76%
• Current HPI: 129.6866
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $80,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $81,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-16 Listed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $90,000 NTREIS
• 2024-12-10 Price Changed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-08 Listed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2024-10-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-10-22 Listed $100,000 NTREIS
• 1985-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $927 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.