5015 Turkey Creek Rd · Plant City, FL 33567

$319,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1990 1.03 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in desirable Plant City, FL this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home sites on an open lawn, 1.03 acres. Featuring mature trees just away from the home. Large space and fences separate you from the few neighbors that are nearby. Located on Turkey Creek Road this property offers easy access to shopping, restaurants, and major roads while maintaining a peaceful setting. This 1990 home features 1250 Sqft of comfortable living space with a well designed updated modern kitchen, large living room, plenty of windows and two modern sliding glass doors. The home has been thoughtfully updated with numerous recent improvements including a three year old roof, four year old electrical panel,

Key facts

• Open lawn
• Large living room
• Plenty of windows

Tags

• OPEN LAWN
• MATURE TREES
• UPDATED MODERN KITCHEN
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• PLENTY OF WINDOWS
• MODERN SLIDING GLASS DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Lot approximately 1.03 acres (dimensions 153 x 286); Private maintained paved/asphalt road; One well and one septic on property; Living area reported as 1,200 square feet
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Cable available and connected; Electricity available and connected; Phone available; Public utilities available; Water available and connected; Sewer available and connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Attached property; Residential property; Completed condition; Faces east; One story / single level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fire pit; Private mailbox; Rain gutters

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Cooktop; Range; Range hood; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Unfinished basement; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robinson Elementary School (math 42% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,471 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 562 students, 78% FRL); Turkey Creek Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 978 students, 74% FRL); Durant High School (math 43% / reading 44%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,589 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $320k implies a 369% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,364 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-59,957
• Equity at exit: $47,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-63,050
• Equity at exit: $27,659

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33567

• Home prices YoY: -13.4%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,284 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,422/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,442

Max offer price $297,762

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $56	-5% $-35	+0% $-125	+5% $-216	+10% $-306
Rent	-10% $-306	-5% $-216	+0% $-125	+5% $-35	+10% $55
Rate	-1.0pp $36	-0.5pp $-44	base $-125	+0.5pp $-208	+1.0pp $-293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $319,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $319,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-02
   listed $319,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,422 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,655 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,233/yr (+$103/mo · 86.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$1,422
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,192
• − Management: −$2,192
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$7,228
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,735
• After-tax cash flow: $231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Plant City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #3587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 68,525
• Population (ZIP): 12,292

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 15% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.70%
• Current HPI: 365.0108
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2808.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $319,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1990-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $68,200 Public Records
• 1988-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,422 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.