508 N Union St · Natchez, MS 39120

$279,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,992 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 1910 7,405 sqft lot $70/sqft · 41% below area Est $474k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning two story home with 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths, there is room for everyone.This downtown gem has lots of amenities ! A large formal dining room that is big enough for the whole family to be together for special occasions and holidays. Lovely interior details throughout. Stop by today to make this home yours! None

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1910

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with 2 covered spaces; Parking pad
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single family residence (house); Two levels; Irregular, cleared lot with dimensions 50' x 150'
• Construction: Wood siding and plaster construction; Metal roof; Brick/mortar foundation; Built year source: assessor
• Exterior features: Porch; Balcony; Exterior lighting; Privacy fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Information about individual bedroom count or levels not provided
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Ceiling fans; Gas cooling option; Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Entrance foyer; Wood frame windows; Has fireplace (located in bedroom, dining room, and living room); Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper level; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $837 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $279k).
• Recommended offer: $271k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.3% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $279k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.86%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $473,703
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -41.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
311 Jefferson St	0.23mi	5/3.0 (+1)	4,000 (+0%)	16mo	$595,000	$149	71
518 Main St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	4,004 (+0%)	9mo	$329,000	$82	67
309 S Commerce St	0.53mi	5/3.0 (+1)	4,000 (+0%)	8mo	$369,000	$92	63
611 N Union St	0.08mi	4/4.5	3,435 (-14%)	5mo	$495,500	$144	62
26 Homochitto St	0.68mi	5/4.0 (+1)	4,100 (+3%)	1mo	$572,000	$140	54
300 Linton Ave	0.41mi	5/4.0 (+1)	4,489 (+12%)	8mo	$410,000	$91	45
505 South Union St	0.68mi	3/4.5 (-1)	3,807 (-5%)	18mo	$575,000	$151	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $8,145
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $75,942
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,185/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $837

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,441

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,030	-5% $933	+0% $837	+5% $740	+10% $644
Rent	-10% $560	-5% $699	+0% $837	+5% $975	+10% $1,113
Rate	-1.0pp $977	-0.5pp $908	base $837	+0.5pp $765	+1.0pp $691

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
160 Devereaux Dr Natchez, MS	3.0	2.0	4000	$3,500	$0.88	44d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $279,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $279,000 Active 380-char remark
17. 2025-05-19
    historical
18. 2024-05-19
    listed $334,000
19. 2021-12-30
    soldstatus $100,000
20. 2021-03-02
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Stunning two story home with 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths, there is room for everyone.This downtown gem has lots of amenities ! A large formal dining room that is big enough for the whole family to be together for special occasions and holidays. Lovely interior details throughout. Stop by today to make this home yours! None

21. 2020-07-18
    listed $134,000

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Stunning two story home with 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths, there is room for everyone.This downtown gem has lots of amenities ! A large formal dining room that is big enough for the whole family to be together for special occasions and holidays. Lovely interior details throughout. Stop by today to make this home yours! None

22. 2017-05-11
    soldstatus $100,000
23. 2017-05-10
    soldstatus
24. 2017-05-04
    listed $75,000
25. 2014-12-04
    soldstatus $100,000
26. 2014-11-28
    soldstatus
27. 2014-09-03
    listed $119,000
28. 2004-06-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,185
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable income: $5,955
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,429
• After-tax cash flow: $8,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Natchez

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #15334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchez, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+134.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $279,000 MLSU
• 2025-05-19 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-05-19 Listed $334,000 MLSU
• 2021-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-02 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2020-07-18 Listed $134,000 MLSU
• 2017-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2017-05-10 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2017-05-04 Listed $75,000 MLSU
• 2014-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2014-11-28 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2014-09-03 Listed $119,000 MLSU
• 2004-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-18.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $196 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.