16954 Tableland Trl · The Woodlands, TX 77385

$279,999

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,383 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2008 5,201 sqft lot Est $319k · 12% under $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * Welcome Home – Move-In Ready & Priced to Sell! * * Beautifully maintained * * 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home * * offering the perfect blend of space, comfort, and convenience. Ideally located just minutes from * * The Woodlands Medical Center * * , plus premier shopping, dining, and entertainment in * * The Woodlands * * and * * Conroe * * . Pride of ownership shines throughout with thoughtfully curated details that enhance the home’s warm and inviting feel. The spacious layout offers exceptional flexibility with * * one bedroom located downstairs * * , ideal for guests, a home office, or multigenerational living. Upstairs, you’ll find the * * pri

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Move in ready
• 5,201 sq ft lot

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• ONE BEDROOM LOCATED DOWNSTAIRS
• PRIMARY SUITE
• THREE ADDITIONAL BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA: Crest Mgmt; Annual association fee of $370

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2008; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level; Additional bedrooms on first and second levels (total 4 bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Ridge H S (math 48% / reading 62%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,672 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,455 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.82%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,322
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9889 Hyacinth Way	0.33mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,382 (-0%)	1mo	$319,900	$134	77
10158 N Whimbrel Cir	0.50mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,284 (-4%)	1mo	$316,000	$138	62
16916 Tableland Trl	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,055 (-14%)	5mo	$239,000	$116	62
10190 N Whimbrel Cir	0.46mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,254 (-5%)	1mo	$317,000	$141	62
9976 Cassowary Dr	0.28mi	5/3.0	2,653 (+11%)	5mo	$325,000	$123	60
2687 S Woodloch St	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,463 (+3%)	2mo	$189,900	$77	54
16707 Lark Bunting Ln	0.63mi	5/3.0	2,572 (+8%)	3mo	$339,900	$132	51
16778 N Gull Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,119 (-11%)	6mo	$284,990	$134	48
10311 Woodhollow Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,180 (-8%)	3mo	$324,900	$149	45
9715 Migrant Hawker Ct	0.67mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,600 (+9%)	5mo	$519,900	$200	43
9921 Kingfisher Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,096 (-12%)	4mo	$248,000	$118	40
16734 Warbler Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,096 (-12%)	4mo	$255,000	$122	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-54,681
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-52,615
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77385

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,512 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$552 /mo · $6,628/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,745

Max offer price $247,455

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-26	-5% $-105	+0% $-184	+5% $-263	+10% $-343
Rent	-10% $-383	-5% $-283	+0% $-184	+5% $-85	+10% $14
Rate	-1.0pp $-43	-0.5pp $-113	base $-184	+0.5pp $-257	+1.0pp $-331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16782 N Thrasher Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2137	$2,040	$0.95	0d	1	0.41mi
9931 Chimney Swift Ln Conroe, TX	5.0	3.0	3068	$2,250	$0.73	15d	1	0.52mi
2657 S Woodloch St Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1920	$1,860	$0.97	0d	1	0.92mi
9295 Inland Leather Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2497	$2,400	$0.96	4d	1	1.18mi
17153 Upland Bent Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2752	$2,149	$0.78	22d	1	1.23mi
17706 Sea Rosemary Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	4.0	2425	$2,895	$1.19	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,999 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,999 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,999 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,999 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,999 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 677-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $279,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,628 · $552/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,628 · $552/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$6,628
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,411
• − Management: −$2,411
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$6,913
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,659
• After-tax cash flow: $-551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,156
• Household income: $117,118
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 471.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.09%
• Current HPI: 239.9434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $279,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,628 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.