4825 Cedarvale Rd · Fairmount, NY 13215

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,759 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1920 1.85 ac lot Est $364k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1.85 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic tank; Water service connected
• Home design: Two-story home; Existing construction
• Construction: Cedar exterior; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Wall cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Country kitchen; Sunroom; Sitting room; Other rooms; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.1% in Fairmount — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Marcellus Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #249 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 63 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $196,628 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.80%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $364,113
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4745 Cedarvale Rd	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,600 (-9%)	6mo	$255,000	$159	64
4869 Buxton Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,914 (+9%)	13mo	$530,000	$277	57
4825 Heffield Cir	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,960 (+11%)	20mo	$440,000	$224	35
4874 Sherwood Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,816 (+3%)	22mo	$370,000	$204	35
4847 Glinden Ln	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,008 (+14%)	24mo	$415,000	$207	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-47,586
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-28,586
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13215

• Home prices YoY: -8.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,966 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$360 /mo · $4,321/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,247

Max offer price $210,801

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,321 · $360/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,321 · $360/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,595
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$4,321
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,027
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,687
• After-tax cash flow: $-976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marcellus Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618480
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,633
• Composite: 50.53/100
• National rank: #1849
• State rank: #249 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fairmount

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 14,751
• Household income: $113,864
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 254.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.54%
• Current HPI: 294.8783
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.42%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $250,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,321 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.