194 Mattapony Way · Red Feather Lakes, CO 80545

$325,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1981 0.91 ac lot Est $513k · 37% under $130/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Filing 6/Lot 103-STEP BACK IN TIME and embrace the retro charm of this cozy, affordable mountain cabin. Perched on a hillside amid striking rock outcroppings, this under-1-acre property offers panoramic valley views with the convenience of a less than one-mile drive to Crystal Lake. The upper level features an open great room with a wood-burning stove that flows into a warm, south-facing sunroom. A spacious dining area and efficiently designed kitchen complete this inviting living space. Down the hall, you'll find a full bathroom with storage across the way and two ample-sized bedrooms. The finished walkout basement provides extra living space with a second family room, generous built-in st

Key facts

• South facing sunroom
• Tool storage area
• Open air workshop

Tags

• PANORAMIC VALLEY VIEWS
• OPEN GREAT ROOM
• SOUTH FACING SUNROOM
• FINISHED WALKOUT BASEMENT
• OPEN AIR WORKSHOP
• TOOL STORAGE AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed with Lone Pine Realty
• HOA & community: HOA present (Crystal Lakes Road & Rec.; Crystal Lakes Water & Sewer); Annual HOA fee $799 (includes common amenities, trash, snow removal, management); Additional annual fee $765; Association transfer fees apply; No association reserve listed; Community amenities: playground, park, trails

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No designated parking features
• Utilities: Cistern water source; No water rights; No water meter installed; Septic tank and septic field; Electricity available; Trash service through Crystal Lakes (included in HOA fees)
• Home design: One-level cabin; Residential property; Not new — previously owned; Walk-out basement; Partially finished basement; Accessibility features: low carpet, main floor bath, main level bedroom
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Above grade and below grade finished areas; Zoning: O
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Balcony; Corner lot; Wooded setting with evergreen and deciduous trees; Native grass; Rolling terrain with rock outcroppings; House faces south; Lake access; River frontage; Gravel road frontage; Private road, privately maintained; Minimal flood or C rating

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms; Main level bedroom
• Flooring: Low carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Main floor bath
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wood stove; Two or more heat sources; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Window coverings; Fire alarm; Some furniture
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $303k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.1% in Red Feather Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#344 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment B+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Poudre School District R-1 (urban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #10 of 86 in CO (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Poudre High School (math 36% / reading 59%, grade D, #131 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,663 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $437 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $303,134 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.47%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $513,304
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
762 Okmulgee Cir	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,920 (+15%)	20mo	$590,000	$307	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-1,187
• Equity at exit: $85,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $53,812
• Equity at exit: $95,788

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80545

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,031 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,943/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$130
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$637
• Net cashflow: $263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,698

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $130 · $1,560/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $325,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $325,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $325,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $325,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $325,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,943 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,943 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$1,943
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,910
• − Management: −$2,910
• − HOA: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$2,232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$536
• After-tax cash flow: $3,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poudre School District R-1
• NCES district ID: 0803990
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,281
• Composite: 45.5/100
• National rank: #2610
• State rank: #10 of 86 in CO

Livability — Red Feather Lakes

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #344
• US rank: #23247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment B+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 913

Population outlook (Larimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,361 people
• By 2030: 457,762 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 542,310 · +30.6%
• By 2050: 627,048 · +51.0%
• By 2075: 833,722 · +100.7%
• By 2100: 952,590 · +129.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Larimer

• 2024 margin: D (+17.6) · D 57.4% · R 39.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 17.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.6 2020: D+15.4 2016: D+4.9 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.56%
• Current HPI: 280.4591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $325,000 IRES

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,943 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.