200 NJ-94 · Vernon, NJ 07462

$129,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 406 sqft · Condo · 30 Days on market

Built 2006

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Studio condo at the Appalachian at Mountain Creek. This top floor furnished condo has beautiful Warwick-Vernon Valley views and features 1-king size bed, a living room area with a queen-size pullout sofa bed with fireplace, a kitchenette with a 2 burner stove-top, mini-fridge-freezer, microwave, coffee-maker, toaster oven, dining table and full bathroom with standard tub/shower combo. All utilities plus High Speed Internet are included in the HOA. Current owner of 13-years has been using this condo part-time during the winter months while also renting it out on Airbnb with yearly rental income totally over $21K per year. This condo unit is conveniently located two doors from the main elevat

Key facts

• Outdoor heated pool
• Outdoor sauna
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• WARWICK-VERNON VALLEY VIEWS
• GAS FIREPLACE
• OUTDOOR HEATED POOL
• OUTDOOR SAUNA
• 24 HOUR ACCESS FITNESS-GYM
• SKI-IN AND SKI-OUT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 2006
• Construction: 2006 construction
• Exterior features: Located in the Vernon Center subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Vernon Township School District (rural): math 18% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #294 of 472 in NJ (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 184 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sussex County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $127,951 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.21%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,247
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $20,157
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07462

• Home prices YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: internet
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $129,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    listed $139,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $1,363
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$327
• After-tax cash flow: $3,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vernon Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3416710
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $84,455
• Composite: 30.63/100
• National rank: #6188
• State rank: #294 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vernon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vernon Center, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 6,892

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,413 people
• By 2030: 127,324 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 113,987 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 100,391 · -24.8%
• By 2075: 78,063 · -41.5%
• By 2100: 62,346 · -53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 2% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 7% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.6% · R 61.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+30.3 2012: R+22.4 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.96%
• Current HPI: 319.3757
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $139,000 FSBO.com