916 S Mineshaft Dr · Apache Junction, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 111°F)
- 6 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Cash flow +10.9/30.0
- 1% rule +4.7/10.0
- Condition / age +3.8/5.0
- Livability +3.3/5.0
- DSCR +3.0/10.0
- Rent growth +2.9/5.0
- Appreciation +2.5/10.0
- Schools +1.7/10.0
- Manufactured-home adj. -3.8
$114,900
916 S Mineshaft Dr · Apache Junction, AZ 85119
1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured
· 235 Days on market
Manufactured home
55+ age-restricted
Built 1992
1,686 sqft lot
$192/sqft
· 18% below area
Est $140k · 18% under
$227/mo HOA · 21% of rent
↓ 4% since listing
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
WELCOME to this GORGEOUS, UPDATED HOME with FANTASTIC CRUB APPEAL IN A PRIME park LOCATION. East facing, and located in a POPULAR HIGHLY DESIRABLE 55+resort. , this home offers endless activities, fun and a true resort lifestyle! The spacious carport includes a BUILT ON SHED-perfect for tools, storage and all the extras. Inside, you'll find a WELL LOVED home with a bright, open floor plan and welcoming front living area. The POPULAR U-SHAPED KITCHEN FEATURES UPGRADED COUNTERTOPS along with ample counter space for cooking. Enjoy the FULL SIZE SMOOTH TOP STOVE, deep sink, and PENTY OF cabinets for efficient storage. A cozy dining room area sits just off the kitchen!
Key facts
- Arizona room
- Updated home
- Prime park location
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-177 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $89k (22.3% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (7.0% below list).
- Recommended offer: $89k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
- Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.0% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
- Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Zoned schools: Desert Vista Elementary School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 536 students, 50% FRL); Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 478 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
- Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$89,316
(22.3% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.93% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.45%
- Cash-on-cash
- -6.59%
- DSCR
- 0.71
- GRM
- 9.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $140,441
- List price
- $114,900
- Delta
- -18.19%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 219 S Motherlode Dr | 0.13mi | 1/1.5 | 575 (-4%) | 6mo | $79,000 | $137 | 80 |
| 510 Jaspar Dr | 0.38mi | 1/1.0 | 610 (+2%) | 1mo | $139,500 | $229 | 78 |
| 957 Oxide Dr | 0.04mi | 1/1.5 | 650 (+8%) | 9mo | $161,000 | $248 | 75 |
| 795 S Cinnabar Dr | 0.21mi | 1/1.5 | 600 (0%) | 18mo | $170,000 | $283 | 74 |
| 794 S Cinnabar Dr #794 | 0.32mi | 1/1.0 | 650 (+8%) | 5mo | $99,000 | $152 | 67 |
| 121 S Kaoline Dr | 0.10mi | 1/1.8 | 650 (+8%) | 17mo | $148,000 | $228 | 64 |
| 587 S Jaspar Dr #587 | 0.38mi | 1/2.0 | 650 (+8%) | 7mo | $129,000 | $198 | 58 |
| 457 S Jaspar Dr | 0.37mi | 1/1.5 | 675 (+12%) | 5mo | $118,000 | $175 | 56 |
| 663 Gypsum Dr | 0.31mi | 1/1.0 | 682 (+14%) | 8mo | $120,000 | $176 | 56 |
| 420 Ironstone Dr | 0.36mi | 1/1.0 | 650 (+8%) | 18mo | $124,900 | $192 | 55 |
| 840 S Aquamarine Dr | 0.18mi | 1/1.5 | 675 (+12%) | 19mo | $167,000 | $247 | 53 |
| 559 Rock Hound Dr | 0.24mi | 2/2.0 (+1) | 550 (-8%) | 22mo | $170,000 | $309 | 47 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -29.7%
- Equity multiple
- 0.03×
- Total profit
- $-31,240
- Equity at exit
- $17,132
10-year hold
- IRR
- -40.2%
- Equity multiple
- -0.46×
- Total profit
- $-47,116
- Equity at exit
- $9,934
Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.
Balanced market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 8 active · 6 under contract
- Months of supply
- 4.0 mo (25%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $154,900 ($215/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 236 d
- This list price
- 12% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +8.9% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 85119
- Home prices YoY
- -33.5%
- Rents YoY
- 1.6%
- Active inventory
- 478
- Price-to-rent
- 9.0×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $1,069 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$603
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$144 /mo · $1,724/yr
- Insurance
- −$48
- HOA
- −$227
- Lot rent leased land?
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$224
- Net cashflow
- $-177
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$1,292
Max offer price
$89,316
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-97 | -5% $-137 | +0% $-177 | +5% $-217 | +10% $-256 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-261 | -5% $-219 | +0% $-177 | +5% $-135 | +10% $-92 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-119 | -0.5pp $-148 | base $-177 | +0.5pp $-207 | +1.0pp $-237 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $28,725
- Closing costs
- $3,447
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 1 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3710 S Goldfield Rd Apache Junction, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 375 | $2,100 | $5.60 | 70d | 1 | 0.34mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- No visible truck/trailer/RV/boat allowed per association rulesResort-style community amenities
- Financial info
- Annual tax amount (reported separately)
- HOA & community
- Association with quarterly feeAssociation fee $680 quarterlyAssociation covers sewer, water, trash, street maintenance and grounds maintenanceCommunity pool and heated spaCommunity laundry (coin-op)Tennis courts, fitness center, biking/walking paths
Exterior
- Parking
- 1 covered parking space1 carport space
- Security
- Security guardGated community
- Utilities
- City waterPublic sewer
- Home design
- Manufactured/mobile homeFee simple ownership
- Construction
- Other construction materialsOther roof typeBuilding area source: owner
- Exterior features
- Other exterior featuresNo fencingPrivate maintained road
Interior
- Kitchen
- Built-in microwaveLaminate counters
- Bedrooms
- 1 bedroom (possible)
- Flooring
- Laminate flooringVinyl and other flooring
- Bathrooms
- 1 full bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Central airCeiling fansElectric heatingOther heating type
- Interior features
- Furnished (see remarks)Vaulted ceilingsLaminate countersRefrigerator included
- Laundry & utility
- No laundry hook-ups on site (see remarks)Community/coin-operated laundry available
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-23days on market $114,900 Active 235 DOM
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2026-09-22days on market $114,900 Active 234 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $114,900 Active 233 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $114,900 Active 232 DOM
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2026-09-19days on market $114,900 Active 231 DOM
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2026-09-18days on market $114,900 Active 230 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $114,900 Active 229 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $114,900 Active 228 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $114,900 Active 227 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $114,900 Active 226 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $114,900 Active 225 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $114,900 Active 224 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $114,900 Active 223 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $114,900 Active 217 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $114,900 Active 216 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $114,900 Active 215 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $114,900 Active 212 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $114,900 Active 211 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $114,900 Active 210 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $114,900 Active 209 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $114,900 Active 208 DOM
-
2026-08-26days on market $114,900 Active 207 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $114,900 Active 206 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $114,900 Active 205 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $114,900 Active 204 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $114,900 Active 203 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $114,900 Active 202 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $114,900 Active 201 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $114,900 Active 200 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $114,900 Active 199 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $114,900 Active 198 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $114,900 Active 197 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $114,900 Active 196 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $114,900 Active 195 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $114,900 Active 194 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $114,900 Active 193 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $114,900 Active 192 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $114,900 Active 191 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $114,900 Active 190 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $114,900 Active 189 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $114,900 Active 187 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $114,900 Active 186 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $114,900 Active 185 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $114,900 Active 184 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $114,900 Active 181 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $114,900 Active 180 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $114,900 Active 179 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $114,900 Active 178 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $114,900 Active 176 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $114,900 Active 174 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $12,824
- − Mortgage interest
- −$6,436
- − Property taxes
- −$1,724
- − Insurance
- −$574
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,026
- − Management
- −$1,026
- − HOA
- −$2,724
- − Depreciation
- −$3,343
- Taxable loss
- −$4,029
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$967
- After-tax cash flow
- $-1,155/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos
75/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $3,000–$9,000 screening
This well-maintained mobile home in a desirable 55+ resort community offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting the exterior and upgrading the HVAC system can significantly increase its resale and rental value.
Value-add opportunities
- Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
- Rental Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can reduce energy costs and improve tenant satisfaction. ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 17/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Desert Vista Elementary School
F
AZ #729/1,109
Nat'l #33,158/41,679
Middle
Cactus Canyon Junior High
F
AZ #151/218
Nat'l #12,406/14,009
High
Apache Junction High School
F
AZ #267/381
Nat'l #15,534/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
- NCES district ID
- 0400790
- Math proficiency
- 15% ▼ -17.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 20% ▼ -13.00%
- Median HH income
- $44,930
- Composite
- 15.34/100
- National rank
- #9325
- State rank
- #195 of 249 in AZ
C
Composite livability gradescore 66/100
Livability — Apache Junction
- Score
- 66/100
- State rank
- #70
- US rank
- #11242
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime D+
Employment D-
Housing A+
Health & safety F
User ratings A+
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Apache Junction, AZ
- County
- Pinal County · 437,574 people
- City population
- 56,611
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 25,420
- Household income
- $71,585
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 12% of renters
Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 437,574 people
- By 2030
- 446,903 · +2.1%
- By 2040
- 452,589 · +3.4%
- By 2050
- 444,126 · +1.5%
- By 2075
- 430,300 · -1.7%
- By 2100
- 393,536 · -10.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (74%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 17%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 8% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 87% English-only · Spanish 11%
Political lean MEDSL · Pinal
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -138.19%
- Current HPI
- 274.3808
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.57%
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
||
| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
|
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Price history
-4.1% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-03-18 Price Changed $114,900 ARMLS
- 2026-01-31 Listed $119,800 ARMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…