Is 916 S Mineshaft Dr in Apache Junction, AZ a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 4.5% cap rate and $-174/mo modeled cash flow at a $114,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 916 S Mineshaft Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,072/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 44.0

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +10.9/30.0
1% rule +4.7/10.0
Condition / age +3.8/5.0
Livability +3.3/5.0
DSCR +3.1/10.0
Rent growth +2.9/5.0
Appreciation +2.5/10.0
Schools +1.7/10.0
Manufactured-home adj. -3.8

$114,900

916 S Mineshaft Dr · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured · 189 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1992 Good condition 1,686 sqft lot $192/sqft · 18% below area Est $141k · 18% under $227/mo HOA · 21% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

WELCOME to this GORGEOUS, UPDATED HOME with FANTASTIC CRUB APPEAL IN A PRIME park LOCATION. East facing, and located in a POPULAR HIGHLY DESIRABLE 55+resort. , this home offers endless activities, fun and a true resort lifestyle! The spacious carport includes a BUILT ON SHED-perfect for tools, storage and all the extras. Inside, you'll find a WELL LOVED home with a bright, open floor plan and welcoming front living area. The POPULAR U-SHAPED KITCHEN FEATURES UPGRADED COUNTERTOPS along with ample counter space for cooking. Enjoy the FULL SIZE SMOOTH TOP STOVE, deep sink, and PENTY OF cabinets for efficient storage. A cozy dining room area sits just off the kitchen!

Key facts

Arizona room
Updated home
Prime park location

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $90k (21.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (6.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $90k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.1% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Desert Vista Elementary School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 536 students, 50% FRL); Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,704 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.93% ✗
Cap rate: 4.47%
Cash-on-cash: -6.49%
DSCR: 0.71
GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $140,641
List price: $114,900
Delta: -18.30%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
219 S Motherlode Dr	0.13mi	1/1.5	575 (-4%)	4mo	$79,000	$137	82
957 Oxide Dr	0.04mi	1/1.5	650 (+8%)	7mo	$161,000	$248	76
795 S Cinnabar Dr	0.21mi	1/1.5	600 (0%)	16mo	$170,000	$283	75
794 S Cinnabar Dr #794	0.32mi	1/1.0	650 (+8%)	3mo	$99,000	$152	68
121 S Kaoline Dr	0.10mi	1/1.8	650 (+8%)	16mo	$148,000	$228	65
587 S Jaspar Dr #587	0.38mi	1/2.0	650 (+8%)	6mo	$129,000	$198	60
457 S Jaspar Dr	0.37mi	1/1.5	675 (+12%)	3mo	$118,000	$175	57
663 Gypsum Dr	0.31mi	1/1.0	682 (+14%)	6mo	$120,000	$176	57
420 Ironstone Dr	0.36mi	1/1.0	650 (+8%)	16mo	$124,900	$192	56
840 S Aquamarine Dr	0.18mi	1/1.5	675 (+12%)	17mo	$167,000	$247	54
559 Rock Hound Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0 (+1)	550 (-8%)	21mo	$170,000	$309	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.5%
Equity multiple: 0.03×
Total profit: $-31,074
Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

IRR: -39.6%
Equity multiple: -0.45×
Total profit: $-46,770
Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 11 active · 3 under contract
Months of supply: 5.1 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $130,000 ($207/sqft)
Median days on market: 254 d
This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +13.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85119

Home prices YoY: -33.5%
Rents YoY: 1.6%
Active inventory: 428
Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,072 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$603
Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,724/yr
Insurance: −$48
HOA: −$227
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
Net cashflow: $-174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,292

Max offer price $89,704

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-95	-5% $-134	+0% $-174	+5% $-214	+10% $-254
Rent	-10% $-259	-5% $-216	+0% $-174	+5% $-132	+10% $-89
Rate	-1.0pp $-116	-0.5pp $-145	base $-174	+0.5pp $-204	+1.0pp $-234

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $28,725
Closing costs: $3,447
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3710 S Goldfield Rd Apache Junction, AZ	1.0	1.0	375	$2,100	$5.60	23d	1	0.34mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: No visible truck/trailer/RV/boat allowed per association rulesResort-style community amenities
Financial info: Annual tax amount (reported separately)
HOA & community: Association with quarterly feeAssociation fee $680 quarterlyAssociation covers sewer, water, trash, street maintenance and grounds maintenanceCommunity pool and heated spaCommunity laundry (coin-op)Tennis courts, fitness center, biking/walking paths

Exterior

Parking: 1 covered parking space1 carport space
Security: Security guardGated community
Utilities: City waterPublic sewer
Home design: Manufactured/mobile homeFee simple ownership
Construction: Other construction materialsOther roof typeBuilding area source: owner
Exterior features: Other exterior featuresNo fencingPrivate maintained road

Interior

Kitchen: Built-in microwaveLaminate counters
Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (possible)
Flooring: Laminate flooringVinyl and other flooring
Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central airCeiling fansElectric heatingOther heating type
Interior features: Furnished (see remarks)Vaulted ceilingsLaminate countersRefrigerator included
Laundry & utility: No laundry hook-ups on site (see remarks)Community/coin-operated laundry available

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $114,900 Active 189 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $114,900 Active 187 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $114,900 Active 186 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $114,900 Active 185 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $114,900 Active 184 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $114,900 Active 181 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $114,900 Active 180 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $114,900 Active 179 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $114,900 Active 178 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $114,900 Active 176 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $114,900 Active 174 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $114,900 Active 173 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $114,900 Active 172 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $114,900 Active 171 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $114,900 Active 170 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $114,900 Active 168 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $114,900 Active 167 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $114,900 Active 166 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $114,900 Active 165 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $114,900 Active 164 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $114,900 Active 163 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $114,900 Active 162 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $114,900 Active 161 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $114,900 Active 160 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $114,900 Active 159 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $114,900 Active 157 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $114,900 Active 156 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $114,900 Active 155 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $114,900 Active 154 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $114,900 Active 153 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $114,900 Active 152 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $114,900 Active 151 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $114,900 Active 150 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $114,900 Active 149 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $114,900 Active 148 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $114,900 Active 147 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $114,900 Active 146 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $114,900 Active 144 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $114,900 Active 142 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $114,900 Active 141 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $114,900 Active 138 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $114,900 Active 137 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $114,900 Active 136 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $114,900 Active 135 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $114,900 Active 133 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $114,900 Active 129 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $114,900 Active 128 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $114,900 Active 127 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $114,900 Active 124 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $114,900 Active 123 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 1/10 Low
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $12,865
− Mortgage interest: −$6,436
− Property taxes: −$1,724
− Insurance: −$574
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,029
− Management: −$1,029
− HOA: −$2,724
− Depreciation: −$3,343
Taxable loss: −$3,994

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$959
After-tax cash flow: $-1,131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $3,000–$9,000 screening

This well-maintained mobile home in a desirable 55+ resort community offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting the exterior and upgrading the HVAC system can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
Rental Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can reduce energy costs and improve tenant satisfaction. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 17/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Desert Vista Elementary School F AZ #729/1,109 Nat'l #33,158/41,679 Middle Cactus Canyon Junior High F AZ #151/218 Nat'l #12,406/14,009 High Apache Junction High School F AZ #267/381 Nat'l #15,534/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
NCES district ID: 0400790
Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
Median HH income: $44,930
Composite: 15.34/100
National rank: #9325
State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Apache Junction

Score: 66/100
State rank: #70
US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
County: Pinal County · 437,574 people
City population: 56,611
Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
Population (ZIP): 25,420
Household income: $71,585
Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 437,574 people
By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
Current HPI: 274.3808
Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Technology	2	$13B
#417 ON Semiconductor Scottsdale $7.1B #467 Resideo Technologies Scottsdale $6.1B
Mining / Metals	1	$23B
#174 Freeport-McMoRan Phoenix $23.4B
Environmental Services	1	$16B
#209 Republic Services Phoenix $15.9B
Metals / Steel	1	$14B
#471 Reliance Steel & Aluminum Scottsdale $14.0B
Technology Distribution	1	$9B
#363 Insight Enterprises Chandler $9.4B
Homebuilding	1	$8B
#424 Taylor Morrison Scottsdale $7.7B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-03-18 Price Changed $114,900 ARMLS
2026-01-31 Listed $119,800 ARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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