3206 1st Pl · Lubbock, TX 79415

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,029 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1947 6,500 sqft lot ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! Remodeled 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home on a large lot in Arnett Benson! This home is a great rental property option. Currently leased through December, at $900 a month! Recent updates include new windows, new flooring throughout, new paint interior and exterior, electrical panel upgrade, new roof, and plumbing work! This one is ready to go, and offering rate buy down! Come check this one out today!

Key facts

• Remodeled
• New flooring
• Large lot

Tags

• REMODELED
• LARGE LOT
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• ELECTRICAL PANEL UPGRADE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax information available

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: No additional utility details listed
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled; Single-story
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.15-acre lot
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Landscaped lot; No additional exterior amenities listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Ceiling fans; Evaporative cooling; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Window coverings; Microwave
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcwhorter El (math 28% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,768 of 4,322 statewide, top 65%, 535 students, 94% FRL); Cavazos Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 479 students, 97% FRL); Lubbock H S (math 45% / reading 52%, grade D, #560 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 1,839 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.36%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,043
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $14,433
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79415

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,051 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,489/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $802

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3207 Amherst St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,200	$1.18	43d	1	0.10mi
3315 Amherst St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$875	$0.92	21d	1	0.20mi
3114 Baylor St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1411	$1,150	$0.82	43d	1	0.32mi
2805 1st Pl Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	730	$895	$1.23	21d	1	0.38mi
2803 2nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	784	$800	$1.02	43d	1	0.40mi
3510 4th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,600	$1.11	13d	1	0.44mi
2906 Cornell St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	920	$875	$0.95	13d	1	0.51mi
2613 Auburn St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	978	$875	$0.89	43d	1	0.61mi
2709 Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,050	$0.92	21d	1	0.65mi
3307 Erskine St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,000	$0.89	21d	1	0.68mi
2512 1st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$900	$0.86	13d	1	0.73mi
2715 Fordham St Unit 7 Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	43d	1	0.86mi
701 N Indiana Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	675	$850	$1.26	21d	1	0.91mi
3318 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1068	$950	$0.89	13d	1	0.96mi
3119 Jarvis St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,025	$0.76	13d	1	0.97mi
1415 N Knoxville Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1291	$934	$0.72	13d	1	1.10mi
114 Avenue V Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	728	$750	$1.03	43d	1	1.13mi
2409 13th St Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	43d	1	1.27mi
301 Avenue U Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$875	$1.40	13d	4	1.32mi
2315 13th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$995	$1.21	43d	1	1.34mi
2316 15th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	960	$795	$0.83	21d	1	1.41mi
2317 15th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	1.42mi
3701 Clovis Rd Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	833	$1,400	$1.68	13d	19	1.45mi
1619 University Ave Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$700	$0.78	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 432-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $90,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,489 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$158/yr (+$13/mo · 10.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,489
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,009
• − Management: −$1,009
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $993
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$238
• After-tax cash flow: $2,120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,794
• Household income: $36,468
• Rent vs Own: 62.9% rent · 37.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1287.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 26% Two or more races 19% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Estonian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 4% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.79%
• Current HPI: 165.7933
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $90,000 LARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Rental Removed $950 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-14 Listed for Rent $950 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-01 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2024-04-10 Pending — LARMLS
• 2024-03-22 Price Changed $90,000 LARMLS
• 2024-03-01 Listed $95,000 LARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Rental Removed $895 LARMLS
• 2023-12-02 Price Changed $89,900 LARMLS
• 2023-11-25 Price Changed $895 LARMLS
• 2023-11-10 Price Changed $94,500 LARMLS
• 2023-11-08 Listed for Rent $925 LARMLS
• 2023-11-02 Price Changed $99,500 LARMLS
• 1997-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,489 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.