45 J E Rogers Dr · Spout Springs, NC 28326

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1999 1.02 ac lot Est $210k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully updated ranch home on 1 acre of land is move-in ready and filled with modern finishes throughout. New engineered flooring flows seamlessly through the main living areas, while plush new carpet provides comfort in each of the bedrooms. The thoughtfully renovated kitchen features new shaker cabinets, stunning quartz countertops, a stylish tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances, creating a space that's both functional and perfect for entertaining. The bathrooms have been tastefully updated with new custom vanities and tile flooring, offering a fresh, contemporary feel. With quality upgrades throughout and a desirable single-level layout, this home combines timeless ch

Key facts

• 1.02 acre lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition listed as updated/remodeled
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level, entry level 1; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built/structured as a manufactured house
• Exterior features: Lot on a private, dirt-maintained road; Approximately 1.02 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No central heating specified; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Quartz countertops; Updated/remodeled condition
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.1% in Spout Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $200k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.76%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,952
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18301 State Highway 27 W	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+12%)	12mo	$235,000	$162	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-634
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $39,777
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28326

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $506/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,486

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47 Forestdale Dr Cameron, NC	3.0	2.0	1035	$1,650	$1.59	23d	1	1.38mi
590 Stoney Creek Dr Sanford, NC	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,000	$1.25	23d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $199,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $506 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,133/yr (+$94/mo · 223.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$506
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,036
• − Management: −$2,036
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $2,861
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$687
• After-tax cash flow: $5,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

Livability — Spout Springs

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 26,068
• Household income: $75,431
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 456.0

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.96%
• Current HPI: 226.8295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+280.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $199,900 TMLS
• 2026-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2013-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2010-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2009-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $506 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.