5033 Jefferson St · Gary, IN 46408

$17,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1942 5,053 sqft lot $27/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unlock the Potential! This 2BR/1BA fixer-upper is the perfect project for those looking to customize their dream space. Includes a 1-car garage and a deep backyard with room to grow. Unbeatable location--walking distance to schools and clinics, with easy highway access for a seamless commute. Cash or rehab loans preferred. Don't miss the chance to design your future!

Key facts

• Deep backyard
• Easy highway access
• Unbeatable location

Tags

• DEEP BACKYARD
• UNBEATABLE LOCATION
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS
• EASY HIGHWAY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $800 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $16k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 59.6% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $124 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $540 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $16,370 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 59.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 190.56%
• DSCR: 9.48
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $42,098
• List price: $17,990
• Delta: -57.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5177 Connecticut St	0.37mi	2/1.0	693 (+3%)	10mo	$29,900	$43	69
4646 Pennsylvania St	0.59mi	2/1.0	734 (+9%)	4mo	$30,000	$41	54
4651 Massachusetts St	0.54mi	2/1.0	609 (-9%)	15mo	$15,400	$25	46
4665 Pierce St	0.73mi	2/1.5	768 (+14%)	7mo	$103,000	$134	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.54×
• Total profit: $48,051
• Equity at exit: $2,682

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.35×
• Total profit: $107,528
• Equity at exit: $1,555

Cash invested: $5,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46408

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$94
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $331/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $800

Break-even live

Break-even rent $164

Max offer price $17,990

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $810	-5% $805	+0% $800	+5% $795	+10% $790
Rent	-10% $707	-5% $753	+0% $800	+5% $846	+10% $893
Rate	-1.0pp $809	-0.5pp $804	base $800	+0.5pp $795	+1.0pp $790

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,498
• Closing costs: $540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4327 Monroe St Unit 1st front Gary, IN	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	0d	1	0.90mi
4170 Fillmore St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	720	$950	$1.32	20d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $17,990 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $17,990 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $17,990 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $17,990 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $17,990 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $17,990 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $17,990 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $17,990 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $17,990 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $17,990 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $17,990 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $17,990 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $17,990 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $17,990 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $17,990 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    price $17,990 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Unlock the Potential! This 2BR/1BA fixer-upper is the perfect project for those looking to customize their dream space. Includes a 1-car garage and a deep backyard with room to grow. Unbeatable location--walking distance to schools and clinics, with easy highway access for a seamless commute. Cash or rehab loans preferred. Don't miss the chance to design your future!

17. 2026-04-09
    price $19,995 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Unlock the Potential! This 2BR/1BA fixer-upper is the perfect project for those looking to customize their dream space. Includes a 1-car garage and a deep backyard with room to grow. Unbeatable location--walking distance to schools and clinics, with easy highway access for a seamless commute. Cash or rehab loans preferred. Don't miss the chance to design your future!

18. 2026-03-03
    listed $24,995 Active 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Unlock the Potential! This 2BR/1BA fixer-upper is the perfect project for those looking to customize their dream space. Includes a 1-car garage and a deep backyard with room to grow. Unbeatable location--walking distance to schools and clinics, with easy highway access for a seamless commute. Cash or rehab loans preferred. Don't miss the chance to design your future!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $331 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $331 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,008
• − Property taxes: −$331
• − Insurance: −$90
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,129
• − Management: −$1,129
• − Depreciation: −$523
• Taxable income: $9,906
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,377
• After-tax cash flow: $7,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 15,747
• Household income: $47,453
• Rent vs Own: 41.2% rent · 58.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 619.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 41% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.08%
• Current HPI: 155.6238
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-28.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $17,990 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $19,995 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $24,995 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-16.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $331 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.