511 Winslow Ave · Buffalo, NY 14211

$90,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,974 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 198 Days on market

Built 1920 3,390 sqft lot Est $140k · 36% under ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

This spacious duplex is ready for its next chapter! Featuring two units, each with 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath, this property is perfect for investors or owner-occupants looking to generate rental income. Highlights include: New cabinets and countertops for a fresh start in the kitchens, recently painted throughout, offering a clean and updated look, a mix of hardwood and carpet flooring for comfort and style. While the home needs some love, it has great potential with many updates already completed. Being sold as-is, this duplex is a chance to build equity and customize to your vision. Sewer tax is $180/yr, Water bill is $170 every 3 months, Garbage is $110 every 3 months and insurance is $

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Carpet flooring
• New cabinets

Tags

• NEW CABINETS
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• CARPET FLOORING
• RECENTLY PAINTED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive. Per door: $694/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.8% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,543/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 1804% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.05%
• DSCR: 3.94
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,154
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
707 Riley St	0.42mi	6/2.0	1,994 (+1%)	10mo	$130,000	$65	70
108 Urban St	0.24mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,100 (+6%)	13mo	$150,000	$71	63
49 Urban St	0.31mi	5/3.0 (-1)	1,849 (-6%)	9mo	$115,000	$62	58
950 Northampton St	0.40mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,190 (+11%)	2mo	$55,000	$25	57
66 Northumberland Ave	0.71mi	6/2.0	2,000 (+1%)	10mo	$170,000	$85	56
21 Winchester Ave	0.25mi	6/2.5	2,205 (+12%)	15mo	$115,000	$52	54
45 Cambridge Ave	0.61mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,042 (+3%)	10mo	$62,000	$30	53
815 E Delavan Ave	0.73mi	6/2.0	2,096 (+6%)	4mo	$160,000	$76	52
210 Carl St	0.60mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,112 (+7%)	7mo	$220,000	$104	50
81 Lark St	0.57mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (-8%)	14mo	$150,000	$82	44
634 E Ferry St	0.38mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,208 (+12%)	16mo	$165,000	$75	44
141 Moselle St	0.62mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (-12%)	8mo	$30,000	$17	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.76×
• Total profit: $94,773
• Equity at exit: $35,738

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.71×
• Total profit: $219,398
• Equity at exit: $51,648

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14211

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,543 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $1,387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 40%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$2,542
Total (2 units)			$2,543

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
518 Wilson St Buffalo, NY	5.0	1.5	1848	$1,500	$0.81	23d	1	1.00mi
15 Hughes Ave Buffalo, NY	7.0	2.0	1650	$3,000	$1.82	44d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   price $90,000
3. 2026-02-02
   price $100,000
4. 2025-12-08
   price $120,000
5. 2025-11-04
   price $130,000
6. 2025-10-07
   price $140,000
7. 2025-09-21
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,516
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,441
• − Management: −$2,441
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $16,174
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,882
• After-tax cash flow: $12,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,663
• Household income: $36,300
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1804.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 9% White 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Current HPI: 357.6438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $90,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $100,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $120,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $130,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $140,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-21 Listed $150,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $168 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.