9264 Schuyler Rd · Schuyler, VA 22969

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 306 Days on market

Built 1900 0.37 ac lot Est $172k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 1905, Fiddler's Cove ( also known as Quarry Haven ) is listed on the National Registry of Historic Places. The second story ( the old meeting hall ) is one large room plus 3 small annex style rooms. and makes a perfect studio space. The main level has the kitchen, dining room, living room and a covered front porch that runs the length of the house. Home needs work but could be a beautiful showplace.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Large room
• 0.37 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE ROOM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Propane; Satellite internet available; Public water; Conventional sewer
• Home design: Detached property; Two stories; Exterior entry basement
• Construction: Stick-built construction; Wood siding; Stone foundation; Metal roof; Built with below-grade unfinished area
• Exterior features: Mature trees and landscaping; Front porch; Patio; Porch; Wooded lot with native plants

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level; One bedroom on the second level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Forced air; Propane heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#530 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Nelson County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #92 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rockfish River Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #794 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 268 students, 79% FRL); Nelson Middle (math 44% / reading 66%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 340 students, 78% FRL); Nelson County High (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 517 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 44% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Nelson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nelson County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.76%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $171,500
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6975 Rockfish River Rd	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,516 (+10%)	21mo	$190,000	$125	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-336
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $26,045
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22969

• Home prices YoY: -8.1%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,387 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $496/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $977

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-07
   price $129,000
3. 2025-12-03
   price $139,000
4. 2025-10-28
   price $149,000
5. 2025-09-24
   price $159,000
6. 2025-08-28
   status Active
7. 2025-08-04
   status Pending
8. 2025-06-03
   listed $169,000 Active
9. 2006-03-01
   historical
10. 2004-10-21
    listed $119,000
11. 2003-04-16
    listed $82,500
12. 2000-07-07
    listed $64,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $496 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,058 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$562/yr (+$47/mo · 113.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$496
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,331
• − Management: −$1,331
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $1,856
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$445
• After-tax cash flow: $3,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nelson County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102580
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -45.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $50,092
• Composite: 44.37/100
• National rank: #2818
• State rank: #92 of 131 in VA

Livability — Schuyler

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #530
• US rank: #24319

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Schuyler, VA
• City population: 1,675
• Population (ZIP): 1,675

Population outlook (Nelson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,115 people
• By 2030: 13,563 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 12,384 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 11,481 · -18.7%
• By 2075: 10,103 · -28.4%
• By 2100: 8,788 · -37.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Scottish 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Nelson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.5) · D 45.8% · R 53.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.7pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -7.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.5 2020: R+5.2 2016: R+5.7 2012: D+2.8 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.40%
• Current HPI: 244.1023
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+98.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — GAAR
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $129,000 GAAR
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $139,000 GAAR
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $149,000 GAAR
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $159,000 GAAR
• 2025-08-28 Relisted — GAAR
• 2025-08-04 Pending — GAAR
• 2025-06-03 Listed $169,000 GAAR
• 2006-03-01 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2004-10-21 Listed $119,000 CAAR
• 2003-04-16 Listed $82,500 CAAR
• 2000-07-07 Listed $64,900 CAAR

Property tax history

-5.0%/yr

Latest (2019): $496 · -22.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.