10 Circle Pl · Smallwood, NY 12720

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1957 0.28 ac lot $214/sqft · 13% below area Est $214k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

SEASONAL HOME WITH GARAGE! Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath bungalow nestled in the desirable Smallwood community of Bethel, NY. This cottage offers the perfect blend of comfort, character making it an ideal weekend getaway. Step inside to find a warm and welcoming living space filled with natural light, complemented by a large stone fireplace. The home features three well-sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, providing plenty of space. An ideal setting for both relaxing and entertaining. Outside, enjoy the peaceful surroundings that make Smallwood so special. Whether you're sipping coffee on the porch, hosting summer gatherings, the property offers a serene escape surrounded by nature. Located in the heart of Bethel, this home provides access to all that the Smallwood community has to offer, including nearby lakes, parks, and outdoor recreation. With its charming appeal and prime location, this bungalow is a wonderful opportunity to experience the best of Sullivan County living.

Key facts

• Access to lakes
• Outdoor recreation
• Access to parks

Tags

• LARGE STONE FIREPLACE
• ACCESS TO LAKES
• ACCESS TO PARKS
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-835/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.8% in Smallwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,148 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (7.1% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $185k implies a 194% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $150,000 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,599
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -13.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 E Sullivan Pl	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (+8%)	2mo	$215,000	$230	62
74 W Read Ave	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	828 (-4%)	6mo	$169,000	$204	62
26 E Tusten	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	820 (-5%)	8mo	$107,500	$131	56
53 Walnut St E	0.38mi	3/1.0	780 (-10%)	12mo	$241,000	$309	56
133 W Oak St	0.38mi	2/1.5 (-1)	960 (+11%)	11mo	$210,000	$219	48
13 Mohawk Trl	0.37mi	3/1.5	746 (-14%)	13mo	$250,000	$335	47
143 Hartwood Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	948 (+10%)	14mo	$275,000	$290	46
78 Woodland Way	0.38mi	3/1.0	969 (+12%)	22mo	$235,000	$243	44
33 Karl Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	761 (-12%)	23mo	$163,000	$214	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $61,455
• Equity at exit: $129,562

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $181,840
• Equity at exit: $247,353

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12720

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,489/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,588

Max offer price $172,701

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $35	-5% $-17	+0% $-70	+5% $-122	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-129	+0% $-70	+5% $-10	+10% $49
Rate	-1.0pp $24	-0.5pp $-23	base $-70	+0.5pp $-118	+1.0pp $-166

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 E Mitchell Smallwood, NY	2.0	1.0	570	$1,500	$2.63	20d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $185,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    status Active 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    SEASONAL HOME WITH GARAGE! Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath bungalow nestled in the desirable Smallwood community of Bethel, NY. This cottage offers the perfect blend of comfort, character making it an ideal weekend getaway. Step inside to find a warm and welcoming living space filled with natural light, complemented by a large stone fireplace. The home features three well-sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, providing plenty of space. An ideal setting for both relaxing and entertaining. Outside, enjoy the peaceful surroundings that make Smallwood so special. Whether you're sipping coffee on the porch, hosting summer gatherings, the property offers a serene escape surrounded by nature. Located in the heart of Bethel, this home provides access to all that the Smallwood community has to offer, including nearby lakes, parks, and outdoor recreation. With its charming appeal and prime location, this bungalow is a wonderful opportunity to experience the best of Sullivan County living.

17. 2026-03-27
    listed $200,000 Active 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    SEASONAL HOME WITH GARAGE! Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath bungalow nestled in the desirable Smallwood community of Bethel, NY. This cottage offers the perfect blend of comfort, character making it an ideal weekend getaway. Step inside to find a warm and welcoming living space filled with natural light, complemented by a large stone fireplace. The home features three well-sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, providing plenty of space. An ideal setting for both relaxing and entertaining. Outside, enjoy the peaceful surroundings that make Smallwood so special. Whether you're sipping coffee on the porch, hosting summer gatherings, the property offers a serene escape surrounded by nature. Located in the heart of Bethel, this home provides access to all that the Smallwood community has to offer, including nearby lakes, parks, and outdoor recreation. With its charming appeal and prime location, this bungalow is a wonderful opportunity to experience the best of Sullivan County living.

18. 2020-03-09
    soldstatus $63,000
19. 2020-01-01
    historical
20. 2019-08-29
    price $82,000
21. 2019-06-19
    listed $89,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,808 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: +$319/yr (+$27/mo · 12.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,489
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$4,038
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$969
• After-tax cash flow: $134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Smallwood

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1148
• US rank: #23933

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smallwood, NY
• City population: 456
• Population (ZIP): 434

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.11%
• Current HPI: 449.7929
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+124.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-29 Price Changed $82,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-19 Listed $89,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,489 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.