10464 E 54 Hwy · Roscoe, MO 64744

$229,300

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,786 sqft · SingleFamily · 79 Days on market

Built 1999 12 ac lot $61/sqft · 43% below area Est $405k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Earth Contact house on 12 acres is very well built and huge! on top of Basement house another 1/2 house on upper level. plus additional 2 huge garages on concrete floor and 1 garage is spray foam insulated also a storage shed too! Turkey and deer are plentiful! finished concrete floor on main level.

Key facts

• Earth contact house
• Storage shed
• Huge garages

Tags

• EARTH CONTACT HOUSE
• 12 ACRES
• FINISHED CONCRETE FLOOR
• HUGE GARAGES
• SPRAY FOAM INSULATED GARAGE
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-576 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (36.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (44.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (44.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#470 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• El Dorado Springs R-II (town): math 25% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #279 of 324 in MO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: El Dorado Springs Elem. (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #808 of 1,115 statewide, top 73%, 580 students, 100% FRL); El Dorado Springs Middle (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #291 of 391 statewide, top 76%, 244 students, 51% FRL); El Dorado Springs High (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #382 of 521 statewide, top 78%, 348 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Cedar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cedar County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $127,632 (44.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.77%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $405,108
• List price: $229,300
• Delta: -43.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $88,194
• Equity at exit: $206,572

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $288,623
• Equity at exit: $445,479

Cash invested: $64,204 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64744

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,202
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,440/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $-576

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,006

Max offer price $145,902

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-418	-5% $-497	+0% $-576	+5% $-656	+10% $-735
Rent	-10% $-677	-5% $-627	+0% $-576	+5% $-526	+10% $-476
Rate	-1.0pp $-461	-0.5pp $-518	base $-576	+0.5pp $-636	+1.0pp $-696

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,325
• Closing costs: $6,879
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,300 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,300 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,300 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,300 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,300 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,300 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,300 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $229,300 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,300 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,300 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,300 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,300 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $229,300 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-03-30
    listed $240,000 Active 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    This Earth Contact house on 12 acres is very well built and huge! on top of Basement house another 1/2 house on upper level. plus additional 2 huge garages on concrete floor and 1 garage is spray foam insulated also a storage shed too! Turkey and deer are plentiful! finished concrete floor on main level.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,440
• − Insurance: −$1,146
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,225
• − Management: −$1,225
• − Depreciation: −$6,671
• Taxable loss: −$11,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,697
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Dorado Springs R-II
• NCES district ID: 2911310
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $31,880
• Composite: 24.02/100
• National rank: #7772
• State rank: #279 of 324 in MO

Livability — Roscoe

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #470
• US rank: #18712

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 92
• Population (ZIP): 8,547

Population outlook (Cedar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,424 people
• By 2030: 13,080 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 12,434 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 11,841 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 10,171 · -24.2%
• By 2100: 7,744 · -42.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 5% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cedar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.8% · R 84.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+65.9 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.88%
• Current HPI: 242.0421
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $240,000 WCAR