164 College St · Clay, KY 42404

$94,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,473 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

0.26 ac lot $64/sqft · 25% below area Est $126k · 25% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 1 bath home featuring tall ceilings, a large walk-in closet, and a wonderful yard. Covered front porch adds character and a peaceful view. Conveniently located near Clay Elementary, this home is full of opportunity for someone ready to bring their vision to life. Priced at $105,000.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Tall ceilings
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• TALL CEILINGS
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• PEACEFUL VIEW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#348 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Webster County (rural): math 25% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #114 of 165 in KY (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Webster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Webster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $95k implies a 280% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,359 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.15%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,821
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -24.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 W Railroad St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,465 (-0%)	22mo	$110,000	$75	60
329 W Railroad St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-7%)	5mo	$165,000	$121	58
68 Nelson St	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,394 (-5%)	8mo	$193,000	$138	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $71,607
• Equity at exit: $85,493

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.34×
• Total profit: $195,103
• Equity at exit: $184,370

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42404

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $720

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $94,900 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,900 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    price $94,900 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bath home featuring tall ceilings, a large walk-in closet, and a wonderful yard. Covered front porch adds character and a peaceful view. Conveniently located near Clay Elementary, this home is full of opportunity for someone ready to bring their vision to life. Priced at $105,000.

17. 2026-03-17
    listed $105,000 Active 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bath home featuring tall ceilings, a large walk-in closet, and a wonderful yard. Covered front porch adds character and a peaceful view. Conveniently located near Clay Elementary, this home is full of opportunity for someone ready to bring their vision to life. Priced at $105,000.

18. 1994-12-01
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $375 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $816 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$441/yr (+$37/mo · 117.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,072
• − Management: −$1,072
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $2,326
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$558
• After-tax cash flow: $3,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster County
• NCES district ID: 2105820
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $39,542
• Composite: 24.76/100
• National rank: #7600
• State rank: #114 of 165 in KY

Livability — Clay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #348
• US rank: #16518

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clay, KY
• Population (ZIP): 2,268

Population outlook (Webster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,548 people
• By 2030: 12,119 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 11,345 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 10,761 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 10,166 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 10,546 · -16.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 5% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Webster

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.4) · D 20.8% · R 78.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.7pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -57.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.4 2020: R+51.6 2016: R+54.4 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.08%
• Current HPI: 223.0427
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+279.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $94,900 MHCBOR
• 2026-03-17 Listed $105,000 MHCBOR
• 1994-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $375 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.