141 Oak St · St. Johnsbury, VT 05819

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 788 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 1986 Fair condition $431/mo HOA · 32% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

This easy, low-maintenance home offers comfortable one-level living in a convenient St. Johnsbury location. The sunny eat-in kitchen opens to the living room, creating a bright and functional everyday space. You’ll find two bedrooms, including a spacious primary, along with a 3/4 bath. Outside, two storage sheds provide added space for tools, gear, or seasonal items. Set on a dead-end street, the property offers a quieter setting while still being just moments from downtown, with close proximity to shops, schools, restaurants, and local community events. Simple, practical living in a location that keeps you connected.

Key facts

• Dead end street
• Sunny eat in kitchen
• Two storage sheds

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• SUNNY EAT IN KITCHEN
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• DEAD END STREET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is on a lot listed as surveyed status unknown; Tax year 2025 (tax details recorded)
• HOA & community: Monthly park rent of $431 covering park rent, plowing, sewer, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers (GMP); Cable internet available
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Existing structure; Facing direction not specified; Single-story (implied by property type)
• Construction: Built in 1986; Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Open lot with nearby paths, shopping, public transportation, hospital, and schools; Gravel driveway; Public road frontage

Interior

• Bathrooms: One 3/4 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil forced-air heating
• Interior features: 4 total rooms; One 3/4 bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $79 ($945/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.4% in St. Johnsbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: St. Johnsbury School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #149 of 192 statewide, top 78%, 702 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.89%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,674
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
158 Costa Ave	0.90mi	2/1.0	794 (+1%)	11mo	$182,500	$230	55
327 River Rd	0.87mi	2/1.0	814 (+3%)	24mo	$140,000	$172	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-4,264
• Equity at exit: $12,287

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $5,585
• Equity at exit: $9,278

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05819

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,342 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$431
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,242

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $103	+0% $79	+5% $55	+10% $30
Rent	-10% $-27	-5% $26	+0% $79	+5% $132	+10% $185
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $97	base $79	+0.5pp $61	+1.0pp $42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $431 · $5,172/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $70,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $70,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 38 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$1,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,288
• − Management: −$1,288
• − HOA: −$5,172
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $197
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$47
• After-tax cash flow: $897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with a focus on the bathroom and kitchen. Upgrades to these areas can significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed framing in bathroom — Structural integrity compromised
• Minor Worn kitchen cabinets — Aesthetic and functional issues

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances appearance and value
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — Improves functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed framing in bathroom · Structural integrity compromised	Major	$15,000–50,000
Worn kitchen cabinets · Aesthetic and functional issues	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$15,500–53,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances appearance and value ↑
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — St. Johnsbury

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Johnsbury, VT
• Population (ZIP): 9,323

Population outlook (Caledonia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,828 people
• By 2030: 28,820 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 26,262 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 23,780 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 18,516 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 13,647 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 6% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caledonia

• 2024 margin: D (+12.4) · D 54.5% · R 42.0% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: 23.3pp · 2024: 12.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.4 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+7.0 2012: D+22.9 2008: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.41%
• Current HPI: 291.8894
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $80,000 PrimeMLS