22 Red Oak Cir · Big Sandy, TN 38221

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Other public records · 266 Days on market

Built 1997 0.50 ac lot ↓ 18% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Immediate possession! 22 Red Oak Circle offers you a beautiful lake vacation home or forever home on a beautiful shaded 1/2 acre wooded lot. Quick access (. 3 mile) to a boat ramp into the beautiful Kentucky Lake, this home has new metal roof, solid brick underpinning, planters and walkways. Storage galore in detached 24' X 36' work shop and another new block 65' X 20' shop/garage with storage loft and office. Owner just completed a fresh power wash so its ready to go! Square footage per owner. Plan your viewing today!

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Lake vacation home
• Shaded wooded lot

Tags

• LAKE VACATION HOME
• SHADED WOODED LOT
• BOAT RAMP ACCESS
• NEW METAL ROOF
• SOLID BRICK UNDERPINNING
• DETACHED WORK SHOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 covered space, 1 total garage space)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide)
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Other foundation; Built on crawl space
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Storage; Waterfront lot with lake access; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Insulated windows; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-447/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#315 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Benton County (town): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #66 of 139 in TN (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Camden Jr High School (math 37% / reading 23%, grade F, #98 of 333 statewide, top 32%, 371 students, 0% FRL); Camden Central High School (math 8% / reading 37%, grade F, #156 of 332 statewide, top 49%, 521 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,885 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.39%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $30,605
• Equity at exit: $72,038

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $91,970
• Equity at exit: $130,417

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38221

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $959 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $109,610

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $2	+0% $-37	+5% $-77	+10% $-117
Rent	-10% $-113	-5% $-75	+0% $-37	+5% $1	+10% $39
Rate	-1.0pp $21	-0.5pp $-8	base $-37	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 266 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 264 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 263 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 262 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 261 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 259 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 258 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 255 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 254 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 253 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 252 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 249 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $115,000 Active 248 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 248 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 247 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 246 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    price $119,000
18. 2026-03-27
    price $129,000
19. 2026-03-17
    price $135,000
20. 2025-10-24
    price $140,000
21. 2025-09-28
    listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$920
• − Management: −$920
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$2,422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$581
• After-tax cash flow: $134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Benton County
• NCES district ID: 4700240
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,587
• Composite: 24.24/100
• National rank: #7722
• State rank: #66 of 139 in TN

Livability — Big Sandy

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #21412

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,046

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,046 people
• By 2030: 14,425 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 13,296 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 12,298 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 10,347 · -31.2%
• By 2100: 8,594 · -42.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.9) · D 18.1% · R 81.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.7pp toward R · 2008: -16.2pp · 2024: -62.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.9 2020: R+57.0 2016: R+51.3 2012: R+25.6 2008: R+16.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.97%
• Current HPI: 230.2855
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-17.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $119,000 TVAR
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $129,000 TVAR
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $135,000 TVAR
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $140,000 TVAR
• 2025-09-28 Listed $145,000 TVAR

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $146 · -16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.