203 Manila St · Jefferson City, MO 65109

$155,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,218 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1900 9,147 sqft lot Est $192k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming, filled with character, and loaded with updates. Located on a quiet street in the heart of town you will find a beautiful house that is just waiting for you to call it home. The hardwood floors on the main were literally just refinished. The kitchen boast an abundance of cabinets and stainless appliances. The main level bedroom is a nice bonus too. Did we mention the newer roof, updated furnace & air conditioner. The breaker box has been updated too. Just wait until you check out the sun room over looking your level, fenced in private backyard. There is an ally way in the rear of the house you can use to also access the property.

Key facts

• Large front porch
• Enclosed porch
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• ENCLOSED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.7% in Jefferson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#7 in MO, #838 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Jefferson City (urban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #121 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.2%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 173 units permitted in Cole County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cole County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $141,734 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.83%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,444
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 Vista Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,283 (+5%)	9mo	$225,000	$175	67
1802 Ella St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+9%)	4mo	$209,999	$158	65
1308 W High St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+12%)	7mo	$139,900	$102	64
809 ST Marys Blvd	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,106 (-9%)	19mo	$146,000	$132	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,564
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $42,465
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65109

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,417 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $812/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,196

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $155,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $155,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $155,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $155,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $155,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $155,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
8. 2026-04-22
   listed $155,000 Active
9. 2023-11-13
   soldstatus Closed 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   Charming, filled with character, and loaded with updates. Located on a quiet street in the heart of town you will find a beautiful house that is just waiting for you to call it home. The hardwood floors on the main were literally just refinished. The kitchen boast an abundance of cabinets and stainless appliances. The main level bedroom is a nice bonus too. Did we mention the newer roof, updated furnace & air conditioner. The breaker box has been updated too. Just wait until you check out the sun room over looking your level, fenced in private backyard. There is an ally way in the rear of the house you can use to also access the property.

10. 2023-11-09
    soldstatus
11. 2023-10-01
    status Pending 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Charming, filled with character, and loaded with updates. Located on a quiet street in the heart of town you will find a beautiful house that is just waiting for you to call it home. The hardwood floors on the main were literally just refinished. The kitchen boast an abundance of cabinets and stainless appliances. The main level bedroom is a nice bonus too. Did we mention the newer roof, updated furnace & air conditioner. The breaker box has been updated too. Just wait until you check out the sun room over looking your level, fenced in private backyard. There is an ally way in the rear of the house you can use to also access the property.

12. 2023-09-28
    price $139,900 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Charming, filled with character, and loaded with updates. Located on a quiet street in the heart of town you will find a beautiful house that is just waiting for you to call it home. The hardwood floors on the main were literally just refinished. The kitchen boast an abundance of cabinets and stainless appliances. The main level bedroom is a nice bonus too. Did we mention the newer roof, updated furnace & air conditioner. The breaker box has been updated too. Just wait until you check out the sun room over looking your level, fenced in private backyard. There is an ally way in the rear of the house you can use to also access the property.

13. 2023-09-18
    listed $149,900 Active 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Charming, filled with character, and loaded with updates. Located on a quiet street in the heart of town you will find a beautiful house that is just waiting for you to call it home. The hardwood floors on the main were literally just refinished. The kitchen boast an abundance of cabinets and stainless appliances. The main level bedroom is a nice bonus too. Did we mention the newer roof, updated furnace & air conditioner. The breaker box has been updated too. Just wait until you check out the sun room over looking your level, fenced in private backyard. There is an ally way in the rear of the house you can use to also access the property.

14. 2019-08-08
    soldstatus 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    Gorgeous home with tons of character and charm located just off W. Main Street! Near downtown, bike trail and local schools and parks! Gleaming Hardwood floors, new windows, great backyard, spacious bedrooms and a Garage! The main level Dining Room could easily convert to a main level bedroom also! Bedrooms are oversized and the crown moldings and ceiling height give this home an extra special charm not found in other homes! An absolute must see!

15. 2019-07-16
    listed $89,900 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    Gorgeous home with tons of character and charm located just off W. Main Street! Near downtown, bike trail and local schools and parks! Gleaming Hardwood floors, new windows, great backyard, spacious bedrooms and a Garage! The main level Dining Room could easily convert to a main level bedroom also! Bedrooms are oversized and the crown moldings and ceiling height give this home an extra special charm not found in other homes! An absolute must see!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,504 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$691/yr (+$58/mo · 85.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$812
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,361
• − Management: −$1,361
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$492
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$118
• After-tax cash flow: $2,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson City
• NCES district ID: 2916190
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,903
• Composite: 35.45/100
• National rank: #4930
• State rank: #121 of 324 in MO

Livability — Jefferson City

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #838

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jefferson City, MO
• County: Cole County · 41,145 people
• City population: 41,145
• Metro: Jefferson City, MO
• Population (ZIP): 41,145
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 984.0

Population outlook (Cole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,107 people
• By 2030: 78,089 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 76,814 · -1.7%
• By 2050: 74,515 · -4.6%
• By 2075: 67,687 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 55,023 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cole

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.4) · D 32.1% · R 66.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -34.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.4 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.14%
• Current HPI: 202.01
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.19%
• Metro: Jefferson City, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+72.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — JCMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $155,000 JCMLS
• 2023-11-13 Sold (MLS) — JCMLS
• 2023-11-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-10-01 Pending — JCMLS
• 2023-09-28 Price Changed $139,900 JCMLS
• 2023-09-18 Listed $149,900 JCMLS
• 2019-08-08 Sold (MLS) — JCMLS
• 2019-07-16 Listed $89,900 JCMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $812 · +21.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.