277 Peter Rd · Southbury, CT 06488

$249,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1940 1.32 ac lot $188/sqft · 45% below area Est $454k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Contractors, renovators, and dreamers-this is your opportunity to create something special. Set on 1.32 picturesque acres with a peaceful pond at the rear of the property, this rough and rustic house-barn is brimming with potential and country charm. A drilled well and septic system, installed in 1990 and reportedly hardly used, provide a solid starting point for your renovation plans. The home is listed as offering 3 bedrooms and a half bath, with some rough plumbing in place for a future full bath on the second floor. Inside, a massive fieldstone fireplace and exposed rustic beams set the stage for a warm, character-filled retreat once restored. Bring your tools, imagination, and vision-t

Key facts

• Fieldstone fireplace
• Exposed rustic beams
• Picturesque acres

Tags

• PICTURESQUE ACRES
• PEACEFUL POND
• DRILLED WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• FIELDSTONE FIREPLACE
• EXPOSED RUSTIC BEAMS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Frame construction; Wood exterior siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Block foundation; Brown exterior color
• Exterior features: Pond frontage; Some wetlands on the lot; Treed lot; Level and sloping areas

Interior

• Kitchen: Laundry area located in the kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Wood/coal stove heating; No hot water (as listed)
• Interior features: Walk-up attic; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($283/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Regional School District 15 (suburban): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #46 of 153 in CT (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pomperaug Regional High School (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B-, #37 of 194 statewide, top 19%, 1,039 students, 14% FRL).
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,202 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $454,448
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -45.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Spring Trl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,509 (+14%)	12mo	$433,000	$287	32
115 River Trl	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+14%)	23mo	$430,000	$283	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-38,980
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-31,961
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06488

• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,172 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$278 /mo · $3,332/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,142

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
298 Old Waterbury Rd Unit 1 Southbury, CT	2.0	1.0	1014	$2,000	$1.97	3d	1	1.46mi
312 Old Waterbury Rd Apt 207 Southbury, CT	2.0	1.0	970	$2,750	$2.84	23d	1	1.47mi
312 Old Waterbury Rd Unit 312-Apt 102 Southbury, CT	2.0	2.0	1057	$1,805	$1.71	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $249,900 Active 778-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,332 · $278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,340 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,008/yr (+$84/mo · 30.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,332
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,085
• − Management: −$2,085
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$3,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$949
• After-tax cash flow: $1,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Regional School District 15
• NCES district ID: 0903537
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $84,697
• Composite: 54.36/100
• National rank: #1361
• State rank: #46 of 153 in CT

Livability — Southbury

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,973

Population outlook (Naugatuck Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 496,846

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · China, Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Naugatuck Valley

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.4) · D 45.6% · R 53.0% · Other 1.4%
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.35%
• Current HPI: 165.0514
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $249,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $3,332 · -12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.