43 Halsey Rd · Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11960

$1,600,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,245 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1991 1.10 ac lot $493/sqft · 39% below area Est $2620k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A rare offering in Remsenburg! This 6 bedroom, 3 bath home was once a true spectacle in the community and still holds the scale and presence to become something remarkable again. Rich with potential and set in a coveted location, this property invites a new owner to restore it to past glory or create a completely reimagined masterpiece.

Key facts

• 1.1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.60M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26k ($309k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($46k rent vs $1.60M).
• Recommended offer: $1.50M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.9% vs local median 7.2% in Remsenburg-Speonk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $136k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $125k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $448k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$218k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.50M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,504,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.17%
• DSCR: 4.12
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,620,132
• List price: $1,600,000
• Delta: -38.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 Halsey Rd	0.08mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,150 (-3%)	12mo	$1,388,000	$441	77
7 Ring Neck Rd	0.30mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,100 (-4%)	19mo	$2,750,000	$887	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 78.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $2,279,020
• Equity at exit: $1,194,790

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.8%
• Equity multiple: 13.04×
• Total profit: $5,394,259
• Equity at exit: $2,352,103

Cash invested: $448,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11960

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $45,501 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,391
• Tax from tax record: −$690 /mo · $8,283/yr
• Insurance: −$667
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$9,555
• Net cashflow: $25,738

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,921

Max offer price $1,600,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $400,000
• Closing costs: $48,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Bay Meadow Ln Westhampton, NY	6.0	5.0	3500	$40,000	$11.43	44d	1	1.04mi
552 Dune Rd Westhampton Beach, NY	5.0	3.5	2296	$55,000	$23.95	44d	1	1.28mi
8 Sweetgrass Rd Westhampton, NY	5.0	4.5	4050	$13,000	$3.21	1d	1	1.39mi
676 Dune Rd Westhampton Beach, NY	5.0	3.5	3445	$45,000	$13.06	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-03-20
    listed $1,600,000 Active 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    A rare offering in Remsenburg! This 6 bedroom, 3 bath home was once a true spectacle in the community and still holds the scale and presence to become something remarkable again. Rich with potential and set in a coveted location, this property invites a new owner to restore it to past glory or create a completely reimagined masterpiece.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,283 · $690/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,661 · $1,472/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,379/yr (+$782/mo · 113.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 86% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $546,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,625
• − Property taxes: −$8,283
• − Insurance: −$13,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$43,681
• − Management: −$43,681
• − Depreciation: −$46,545
• Taxable income: $300,674
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$72,162
• After-tax cash flow: $236,695/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624420
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $79,972
• Composite: 47.7/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #389 of 755 in NY

Livability — Remsenburg-Speonk

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Remsenburg-Speonk, NY
• City population: 1,346
• Population (ZIP): 1,037

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 9% Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.81%
• Current HPI: 386.454
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $1,600,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $8,283 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.