3729-31 Willow St · New Orleans, LA 70115

$275,000

9 bd · 6.0 ba · 3,896 sqft · SingleFamily · 149 Days on market

3,920 sqft lot $71/sqft · 26% below area Est $371k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fabulous Uptown double located blocks from Ochsner Baptist, Trader Joes, Freret Street restaurants, and more! Enjoy relaxing on the fabulous front porch while living minutes from all of the fun and action that New Orleans has to offer or add a wonderful rental to your portfolio. This shotgun style double has 3 bedrooms/1 bath in one unit and 2 bedrooms/2 baths in the other. Brand new roof!

Key facts

• Uptown double
• Front porch
• New roof

Tags

• UPTOWN DOUBLE
• FRONT PORCH
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 9-bed/6.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.4% in New Orleans — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in LA, #1,383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D.
• Orleans Parish (urban): math 11% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #69 of 98 in LA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Benjamin Franklin Elem. Math And Science (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #479 of 646 statewide, top 75%, 747 students, 98% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 68% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 710 units permitted in Orleans Parish in 2024 (244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orleans County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.93%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $371,346
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -25.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-63,361
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-99,116
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70115

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,725 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $-175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,946

Max offer price $249,740

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15	-5% $-80	+0% $-175	+5% $-270	+10% $-365
Rent	-10% $-390	-5% $-282	+0% $-175	+5% $-67	+10% $41
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-105	base $-175	+0.5pp $-246	+1.0pp $-318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-01-23
    listed $275,000 Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Fabulous Uptown double located blocks from Ochsner Baptist, Trader Joes, Freret Street restaurants, and more! Enjoy relaxing on the fabulous front porch while living minutes from all of the fun and action that New Orleans has to offer or add a wonderful rental to your portfolio. This shotgun style double has 3 bedrooms/1 bath in one unit and 2 bedrooms/2 baths in the other. Brand new roof!

17. 2013-03-28
    listed $140,000 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Renovated double, 2br/2ba on one side 3br/1ba on the other, rented section 8. each unit has HVAC and is in excellent condition, long term tenant on left side.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$6,494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,616
• − Management: −$2,616
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$6,559
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,574
• After-tax cash flow: $-521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orleans Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201170
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -52.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -46.00%
• Median HH income: $37,011
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9271
• State rank: #69 of 98 in LA

Livability — New Orleans

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1383

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment D Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Orleans, LA
• County: Orleans Parish · 338,817 people
• City population: 338,817
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 31,183
• Household income: $90,182
• Rent vs Own: 45.7% rent · 54.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1756.0

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 513,025 people
• By 2030: 575,781 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 700,174 · +36.5%
• By 2050: 826,541 · +61.1%
• By 2075: 1,123,374 · +119.0%
• By 2100: 1,355,609 · +164.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 26% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+67.0) · D 82.2% · R 15.2% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.7pp toward D · 2008: 60.3pp · 2024: 67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+67.0 2020: D+68.2 2016: D+66.2 2012: D+62.5 2008: D+60.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -272.08%
• Current HPI: 287.2138
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+96.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Listed $275,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2013-03-28 Listed $140,000 AcadianaMLS