2915 Emma Ln · Mabank, TX 75147

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,239 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 2021 9,148 sqft lot $190/sqft · at area comps Est $229k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 2021, this well-cared-for 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2 car garage home in Mabank offers modern comfort with a practical layout. With 1,239 square feet, the open design makes great use of space while providing a warm and inviting feel throughout. Enjoy the covered back patio overlooking a privacy-fenced yard making it perfect for relaxing, pets, or entertaining. The insulated storage building adds extra space for tools and equipment, and the 2 car carport provides additional covered parking. This home is move-in ready and offers the benefits of newer construction without the wait.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Covered back patio
• Privacy fenced yard

Tags

• COVERED BACK PATIO
• PRIVACY FENCED YARD
• INSULATED STORAGE BUILDING
• COVERED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-451 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (33.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.1% in Mabank — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#446 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central El (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 675 students, 64% FRL); Mabank Int (math 49% / reading 34%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 611 students, 66% FRL); Mabank H S (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,111 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,362 (33.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.22%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,122
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: 2.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2906 Emma Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-2%)	4mo	$207,900	$170	91
2908 Emma Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,314 (+6%)	4mo	$217,900	$166	83
2901 Emma Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+3%)	9mo	$237,000	$186	83
1023 Baker Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,275 (+3%)	4mo	$179,500	$141	76
2020 Clay St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+3%)	15mo	$239,000	$187	75
2213 Samuel St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+3%)	18mo	$238,900	$188	74
1002 Baker Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,289 (+4%)	5mo	$234,623	$182	70
2211 Samuel St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+3%)	24mo	$241,900	$190	69
1034 Springview Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+5%)	10mo	$249,000	$191	57
1043 Springview Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+5%)	10mo	$249,000	$191	55
1042 Springview Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+5%)	12mo	$249,000	$191	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $107,905
• Equity at exit: $211,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.50×
• Total profit: $361,682
• Equity at exit: $456,553

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75147

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$398 /mo · $4,770/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $155,362

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-318	-5% $-384	+0% $-451	+5% $-517	+10% $-584
Rent	-10% $-579	-5% $-515	+0% $-451	+5% $-387	+10% $-323
Rate	-1.0pp $-332	-0.5pp $-391	base $-451	+0.5pp $-512	+1.0pp $-574

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2712 William St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,440	$1.40	45d	1	0.04mi
2904 Emma Ln Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,499	$1.15	45d	1	0.08mi
2033 Clay St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,414	$1.38	0d	1	0.08mi
2034 Clay St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,465	$1.13	0d	1	0.09mi
2031 Clay St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,314	$1.01	0d	1	0.09mi
2032 Clay St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1197	$1,314	$1.10	7d	1	0.10mi
2029 Clay St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,414	$1.38	45d	1	0.11mi
2503 Jax St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1079	$1,695	$1.57	23d	1	0.12mi
2027 Clay St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,414	$1.09	8d	1	0.12mi
18409 County Road 4001 Mabank, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1750	$1,725	$0.99	0d	16	0.27mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $235,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $235,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $235,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 93 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $235,000 Active 92 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $235,000 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Built in 2021, this well-cared-for 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2 car garage home in Mabank offers modern comfort with a practical layout. With 1,239 square feet, the open design makes great use of space while providing a warm and inviting feel throughout. Enjoy the covered back patio overlooking a privacy-fenced yard making it perfect for relaxing, pets, or entertaining. The insulated storage building adds extra space for tools and equipment, and the 2 car carport provides additional covered parking. This home is move-in ready and offers the benefits of newer construction without the wait.

19. 2026-05-15
    price $235,000 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Built in 2021, this well-cared-for 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2 car garage home in Mabank offers modern comfort with a practical layout. With 1,239 square feet, the open design makes great use of space while providing a warm and inviting feel throughout. Enjoy the covered back patio overlooking a privacy-fenced yard making it perfect for relaxing, pets, or entertaining. The insulated storage building adds extra space for tools and equipment, and the 2 car carport provides additional covered parking. This home is move-in ready and offers the benefits of newer construction without the wait.

20. 2026-02-28
    listed $264,000 Active 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Built in 2021, this well-cared-for 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2 car garage home in Mabank offers modern comfort with a practical layout. With 1,239 square feet, the open design makes great use of space while providing a warm and inviting feel throughout. Enjoy the covered back patio overlooking a privacy-fenced yard making it perfect for relaxing, pets, or entertaining. The insulated storage building adds extra space for tools and equipment, and the 2 car carport provides additional covered parking. This home is move-in ready and offers the benefits of newer construction without the wait.

21. 2026-02-27
    listed $264,000 Active 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Built in 2021, this well-cared-for 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2 car garage home in Mabank offers modern comfort with a practical layout. With 1,239 square feet, the open design makes great use of space while providing a warm and inviting feel throughout. Enjoy the covered back patio overlooking a privacy-fenced yard making it perfect for relaxing, pets, or entertaining. The insulated storage building adds extra space for tools and equipment, and the 2 car carport provides additional covered parking. This home is move-in ready and offers the benefits of newer construction without the wait.

22. 2022-05-12
    soldstatus
23. 2022-05-11
    soldstatus Closed
24. 2022-04-18
    status Pending
25. 2022-04-08
    historical Active Option Contract
26. 2022-04-05
    listed $225,900 Active
27. 2022-04-05
    historical
28. 2022-04-05
    listed $225,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,770 · $398/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,770 · $398/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$4,770
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,552
• − Management: −$1,552
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$9,652
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,316
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mabank

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #9068

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mabank, TX
• County: Van Zandt County · 9,177 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,177
• Household income: $56,940
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.14%
• Current HPI: 254.32
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+4.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $235,000 HCBOR
• 2026-02-28 Listed $264,000 HCBOR
• 2026-02-27 Listed $264,000 NTREIS
• 2022-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-11 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-04-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-04-08 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-04-05 Listed $225,900 NTREIS
• 2022-04-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-04-05 Listed $225,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+72.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,770 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.