307 3rd Ave · Manchester, GA 31816

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 997 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1940 5,662 sqft lot Est $78k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cottage is cute Located in walking distance close to Banks, Churches, Post Office, Grocery store and Shopping. Low maintenance lot with no back yard.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Tile floors
• Lofted upstairs area

Tags

• BUNGALOW STYLE
• WOOD CLAD WALLS
• TILE FLOORS
• LOFTED UPSTAIRS AREA
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 5.1% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#525 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Meriwether County (rural): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #144 of 174 in GA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Meriwether County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Meriwether County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.98%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,766
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 3rd Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+0%)	0mo	$78,000	$78	94
526 4th Street Ext	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,090 (+9%)	10mo	$116,000	$106	53
19 Truitt St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,049 (+5%)	4mo	$60,000	$57	53
506 Webster Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,107 (+11%)	10mo	$160,500	$145	48
518 S 5th Ave	0.35mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,121 (+12%)	18mo	$68,250	$61	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.64×
• Total profit: $76,524
• Equity at exit: $67,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.40×
• Total profit: $197,371
• Equity at exit: $145,709

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31816

• Home prices YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,379 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,257/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $560

Break-even live

Break-even rent $670

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $602	-5% $581	+0% $560	+5% $539	+10% $517
Rent	-10% $451	-5% $505	+0% $560	+5% $614	+10% $669
Rate	-1.0pp $597	-0.5pp $579	base $560	+0.5pp $540	+1.0pp $521

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-03
   status Back On Market
3. 2026-02-12
   status Under Contract
4. 2026-02-09
   status Back On Market
5. 2026-02-08
   status Under Contract
6. 2026-02-01
   listed $75,000 New
7. 2021-05-19
   soldstatus $54,900
8. 2021-05-12
   soldstatus $54,900 149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (149 chars)

   Cottage is cute Located in walking distance close to Banks, Churches, Post Office, Grocery store and Shopping. Low maintenance lot with no back yard.

9. 2020-11-24
   listed $59,900 149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (149 chars)

   Cottage is cute Located in walking distance close to Banks, Churches, Post Office, Grocery store and Shopping. Low maintenance lot with no back yard.

10. 2020-09-11
    historical
11. 2020-05-01
    price $69,900
12. 2019-09-10
    listed $79,900 New
13. 2005-05-31
    soldstatus $37,000
14. 2001-11-16
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,257 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,257 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,257
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,323
• − Management: −$1,323
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $5,881
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,411
• After-tax cash flow: $5,305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meriwether County
• NCES district ID: 1303630
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,287
• Composite: 16.59/100
• National rank: #9175
• State rank: #144 of 174 in GA

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #525
• US rank: #23555

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manchester, GA
• Population (ZIP): 4,872

Population outlook (Meriwether County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,554 people
• By 2030: 18,482 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 16,204 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 14,030 · -28.2%
• By 2075: 9,539 · -51.2%
• By 2100: 6,136 · -68.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 48% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Meriwether

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.5) · D 37.1% · R 62.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -5.4pp · 2024: -25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.5 2020: R+20.6 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+5.7 2008: R+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.75%
• Current HPI: 298.3716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-02-12 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-02-09 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-02-08 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $75,000 GAMLS
• 2021-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $54,900 Public Records
• 2021-05-12 Sold (MLS) $54,900 CBOR
• 2020-11-24 Listed $59,900 CBOR
• 2020-09-11 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2020-05-01 Price Changed $69,900 GAMLS
• 2019-09-10 Listed $79,900 GAMLS
• 2005-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 2001-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,257 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.