Plan 2625 Plan · Rosenberg, TX 77471

$297,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,625 sqft · SingleFamily · 74 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Kitchen island * Flex Space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 3 * Extra storage space * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * 5-panel interior doors * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Planned park * Commuter-friendly location * Planned pavilion * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• Walk-in closet
• Dual-sink vanity

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• WALK-IN KITCHEN PANTRY
• DUAL-SINK VANITY
• GAS RANGE

🏗️ New construction. The $297,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $273,621.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Meyer El (math 25% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 704 students, 74% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 43% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 728 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,844/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1688% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,115 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.58%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,621
• List price: $297,995
• Delta: 8.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2230 Sandy Sea Rd	0.31mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,663 (+1%)	9mo	$325,000	$122	68
4724 Bartagrass Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,692 (+3%)	11mo	$379,000	$141	58
2319 Golden Brandy Ln	0.50mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,631 (+0%)	15mo	$289,999	$110	56
4640 Mustang Run Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,462 (-6%)	23mo	$391,665	$159	39
1818 Cardinal Sky Way	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,251 (-14%)	6mo	$306,000	$136	38
4619 Bluestem Prairie Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,457 (-6%)	18mo	$374,900	$153	37
2218 Heath Ridge Ln	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-14%)	21mo	$250,000	$111	36
4711 Monarch Bend Ln	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,325 (-11%)	24mo	$329,451	$142	27
3210 Dogwood Knoll Trl	0.75mi	4/2.0	2,242 (-15%)	20mo	$299,900	$134	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-29,944
• Equity at exit: $40,798

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-28,901
• Equity at exit: $23,658

Cash invested: $76,614 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77471

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 728
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,844 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,435
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,104/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,394

Max offer price $273,621

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $545	-5% $451	+0% $356	+5% $262	+10% $167
Rent	-10% $132	-5% $244	+0% $356	+5% $469	+10% $581
Rate	-1.0pp $494	-0.5pp $426	base $356	+0.5pp $285	+1.0pp $213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,405
• Closing costs: $8,209
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4516 Bartagrass Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2160	$3,850	$1.78	45d	1	0.68mi
930 Salado Slough Ln Rosenberg, TX	4.0	2.5	2427	$2,149	$0.89	4d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $297,995 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $297,995 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $297,995 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $297,995 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $297,995 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $297,995 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $297,995 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $297,995 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $297,995 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $307,995 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $307,995 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $307,995 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $307,995 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $307,995 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    price $307,995 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Flex Space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 3 * Extra storage space * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * 5-panel interior doors * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Planned park * Commuter-friendly location * Planned pavilion * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby

16. 2026-05-12
    price $304,995 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Flex Space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 3 * Extra storage space * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * 5-panel interior doors * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Planned park * Commuter-friendly location * Planned pavilion * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby

17. 2026-04-28
    price $310,995 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Flex Space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 3 * Extra storage space * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * 5-panel interior doors * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Planned park * Commuter-friendly location * Planned pavilion * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby

18. 2026-04-15
    price $333,995 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Flex Space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 3 * Extra storage space * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * 5-panel interior doors * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Planned park * Commuter-friendly location * Planned pavilion * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby

19. 2026-04-08
    listed $348,995 Active 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Flex Space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 3 * Extra storage space * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * 5-panel interior doors * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Planned park * Commuter-friendly location * Planned pavilion * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,327
• − Property taxes: −$4,104
• − Insurance: −$1,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,731
• − Management: −$2,731
• − Depreciation: −$7,960
• Taxable loss: −$87
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$21
• After-tax cash flow: $4,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Rosenberg, TX, is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a cosmetic rehab level and is move-in ready with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. The home is located in a family-friendly area with a planned park and close to popular restaurants and shopping. Smart thermostat and landscaping improvements can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value.
• Resale Primary bath vanity — Enhances the primary bathroom and adds value.
• Resale Exterior paint — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and property value.
• Rental Landscaping and garden beds — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and add value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value. ↑
• Resale Primary bath vanity — Enhances the primary bathroom and adds value. ↑
• Resale Exterior paint — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Landscaping and garden beds — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and add value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,325
• Household income: $73,186
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1688.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 23% Two or more races 21% Black 12% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.06%
• Current HPI: 309.5425
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $307,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $304,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $310,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $333,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Listed $348,995 Zillow