1820 N Thornton Rd #963 · Casa Grande, AZ 85122

$237,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · Manufactured · 9 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INTERIOR : 9' FLAT CEILINGS, 39'' OVERHEAD CITY SCAPE CABINETS, 4 STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, SOFT CLOSE CABINET DOORS, BLACK & WHITE DECOR THROUGHOUT, LED RECESSED LIGHTING IN KITCHEN, NEW PENDANT LIGHTS & CHANDELIER, BUILT IN DESK IN KITCHEN, SPLIT BEDROOMS, VINYL PLANK FLOORING, WASHER / DRYER IN UTILITY ROOM, UNFURNISHED, 3 CEILING FANS. EXTERIOR: SOUTH FACING - FRONT PORCH HOME, 18'. X 61' DOUBLE DRIVE, 18' X 51' DOUBLE AWNING, 12' X 14' WIRED SHED, WHITE VINYL DUAL GLAZE LOW WINDOWS, WATER SOFTENER & RO SYSTEM, HEAT PUMP, ASSUMABLE TERMITE CONTRACT, FENCING WITH TWO GATES, UPGRADED LANDSCAPE W PVC PIPE IRR. GUTTERS ON NON AWNING SIDE, SHADE CLOTH SUNSHADES ON DRIVEWA

Key facts

• Vinyl plank flooring
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SOFT CLOSE CABINET DOORS
• RECESSED LIGHTING IN KITCHEN
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• WASHER DRYER IN UTILITY ROOM
• DUAL GLAZE LOW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease: $497 per month; Association fee includes: other (see remarks); Community pool; Community spa (heated); Pickleball courts; Coin-operated laundry; Biking/walking path; Fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private pickleball court(s); Private street(s); Sprinklers in front; Desert front; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Built-in electric oven; Pantry / eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Heat pump cooling; Central air
• Interior features: Double vanity in master bath; Eat-in kitchen; No interior steps; Pantry; Full master bathroom; Dual-pane windows; Zero-grade entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details: see remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-394/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.1% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,959 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $98,352
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1820 N Thornton Rd #908	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,513 (+11%)	3mo	$205,000	$135	75
1869 N Rim Rock Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,520 (+11%)	6mo	$260,000	$171	69
1837 N Thornton Rd #77	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-5%)	5mo	$199,900	$154	68
450 W Sunwest Dr #68	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,364 (-0%)	4mo	$80,000	$59	60
2054 N Thornton Rd #164	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,456 (+7%)	4mo	$123,500	$85	59
1637 N Sandalwood Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,345 (-2%)	6mo	$198,500	$148	59
450 W Sunwest Dr #114	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,328 (-3%)	6mo	$59,000	$44	53
2054 N Thornton Rd #186	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,545 (+13%)	1mo	$105,000	$68	51
450 W Sunwest Dr #17	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-2%)	11mo	$92,500	$69	51
450 W Sunwest Dr #183	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-10%)	10mo	$80,000	$65	45
450 W Sunwest Dr #278	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,220 (-11%)	12mo	$88,000	$72	40
450 W Sunwest Dr #143	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,568 (+15%)	11mo	$75,000	$48	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-37,272
• Equity at exit: $35,472

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-20,879
• Equity at exit: $20,569

Cash invested: $66,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85122

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$297 /mo · $3,568/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,081

Max offer price $233,154

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,475
• Closing costs: $7,137
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
767 W Barrus Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	24d	1	0.24mi
803 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,725	$1.16	5d	1	0.40mi
736 W Palo Verde Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1810	$3,550	$1.96	24d	1	0.43mi
645 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,650	$1.26	24d	1	0.62mi
776 W Fairlane Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,200	$2.15	24d	1	0.63mi
1113 W Corinthian Cir Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	981	$1,395	$1.42	15d	1	0.68mi
845 W Crooked Stick Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,000	$1.25	24d	1	0.76mi
520 W Casa Mirage Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,600	$1.04	5d	1	0.85mi
541 W Melrose Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,600	$1.45	24d	1	1.02mi
2094 N Sweetwater Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,700	$1.34	24d	1	1.04mi
1858 N Center Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,500	$1.31	24d	1	1.13mi
2356 N Sand Hills Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,995	$1.65	15d	1	1.38mi
1640 N Cameron St Unit 1640 Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	24d	1	1.49mi
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	24d	1	1.49mi
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	22d	1	1.49mi
1642 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 687-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $237,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,326
• − Property taxes: −$3,568
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − Depreciation: −$6,921
• Taxable loss: −$4,446
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,067
• After-tax cash flow: $673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal. It is ready for a new owner to move in.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both furniture — improves living space and makes home move-in ready

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both furniture — improves living space and makes home move-in ready ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casa Grande

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #21534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casa Grande, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 69,701
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 61,624
• Household income: $68,443
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1250.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 42% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.32%
• Current HPI: 233.148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $237,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $239,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $241,900 ARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $245,900 ARMLS